Ipsos Poll 19 May 2004

[August1991]

Thanks Twister for the news. This deserves a new thread.

Lib 39

CPC 26

NDP 15

In Quebec:

BQ 48

Lib 28

Sample was 2000, between 11 and 17 May. (Before Ontario budget.)

Ipsos Reid CTV G&M Poll

Ontario is a Liberal stronghold, where they currently hold 97 of 103 seats. The Liberals have 49 per cent support, unchanged from Friday. The Conservatives are up one point to 27 per cent and the NDP are also up one point to 17 per cent.

Wright said if the Conservatives raise their support to the 30 per cent range or higher, the seat projection model shows them jumping from about 10 seats in Ontario to 30 or more.

[twister]

Looks like more bad news for the Liberals and Paul Martin. A story on tonight's Global National suggests that Canadians are cranky and more likely to opt for change in leadership. According to a poll done for Global the Liberals have 39% support amongst Canadians but the Conservatives have surged to 31% and climbing. According to the poll most Canadians feel that they are worse off today than they were 4 years ago.

Here's the results of the Global/Compas poll:

Nationally:

Liberals 39%

Conservatives 31%

NDP 17%

Bloc 11%

When asked are you better off today than you were 4 years ago:

27% said they were better off

40% worse off

32% the same

In Ontario the poll suggests that the Conservatives and Liberals are in a dead heat with each other in 25 of the sample ridings chosen for the poll. The author of the poll points out that the number of very competitive ridings is closer to 75 of the 106 ridings. Liberals lead with 42% in these ridings to the Conservatives 39% (with a + or - 3% margin of error).

Here is a link to the full story

Global National: Cranky Canadians

This election keeps getting more interesting by the day and it hasn't even been called yet. Makes you wonder if Paul Martin is worried yet.

[August1991]

When asked are you better off today than you were 4 years ago:

27% said they were better off

40% worse off

32% the same

When discussing politicians, left, right, economic policies, foreign affairs, this is the key question in the States: "Are you and your family better off now than four years ago?"

Reagan won in 1980 with that single question posed during a debate with Carter. Reagan was re-elected in 1984 by asking the exact same question during a debate with Mondale.

Canadian politics are different. But it seems to me Ontario voters are pas mal American in their way of deciding who to vote for avec un brin de nationalisme sur le bord.