Will you get the H1N1 vaccine?

[segnosaur]

Graduated with a B.Sc. and M.Sc. over a decade ago. My degree wasn't in biology, although I made sure I took a very broad range of courses, including zoology and microbiology (for which I got an A), not to mention courses in statistics (useful in understanding some of these studies) and history.

Excellent... congratulations on getting an 'A'.

Thanks, but actually, it was mutliple As... one in Zoology, one in microbiolgy, one in statistics... Also got As in chemistry, physics and genetics.

Of course, I was more of a geek back then. Now I just strive to be annoying.

I do of course realize that high marks don't necessarily make a person smarter. However, they do have at least some correlation to a person's knowledge of subject matarial, which is often necesary when dealing with issues of science. (And hey, I also realize that, this being an anonymous internet forum, I COULD be lying through my teath.)

I'm quite happy to stick to actual science in these discussions; I only brought up my academic record because you suggested I was "just" a grad student.

[Oleg Bach]

It's every man for himself these days - take jet travel for instance - a flying tube of disease..that's one issue - also take the fact that germs and virus' are created these days is troublesome also. As for the vaccine - look at the health providers in the states who are resisting being part of the herd and not taking mandatory injections ----IF there is a plot behind this - It would make good sense to get the health workers ill though engineered infection...not a conspiracy nut ---BUT genocide of all sorts has always existed and I don't see any sign of mankind learning any better....I simply don't trust the jerks who are into depopulation...

THE EARTH CAN SUSTAIN ALL THE HUMANS IT CAN PRODUCE... Those that want to play God do it out of arrogance and spite..these are the real killer virus...humans who seek to destroy humans --- Humanity is capable of all sorts of evils....Look at our history - after 10 thousand years we have NOT solved our problems ---we are a f**king stupid race of creatures to proud to admit that a monkey is brighter.

[Sir Bandelot]

I'm quite happy to stick to actual science in these discussions; I only brought up my academic record because you suggested I was "just" a grad student.

Yet you still are one somehow... your need to talk about academic achievements, as though it justifies your expertiise in anything. Your need to boast about your marks. One A was not enough, we had to hear about the other A's too. Remember, I said Grad student with IDENTITY issues

[segnosaur]

It's every man for himself these days - take jet travel for instance - a flying tube of disease..that's one issue - also take the fact that germs and virus' are created these days is troublesome also.

Ummmm... just wondering, what 'germs' do you you think are actually being created?

As for the vaccine - look at the health providers in the states who are resisting being part of the herd and not taking mandatory injections

I don't doubt that there are some health care workers that are resistant to getting vaccinated. But, as I said before, being a doctor or a nurse doesn't necessarily make you an expert in all things viral.

Heck, wouldn't even surprise me if there were doctors who denied that HIV causes AIDS.

----IF there is a plot behind this - It would make good sense to get the health workers ill though engineered infection...not a conspiracy nut ---BUT genocide of all sorts has always existed and I don't see any sign of mankind learning any better....I simply don't trust the jerks who are into depopulation...

Ummm... who exactly is into 'depopulation'? People who favour the flu vaccine want to SAVE lives, not eliminate them.

[segnosaur]

Yet you still are one somehow... your need to talk about academic achievements, as though it justifies your expertiise in anything.

Once again, let me say, I had no "need" to bring up my academic achievements. You were the one who brought up my personal background, and you were the one who actually made the statement "... you need some more education".

Once again, I'm quite happy sticking to the science.

I still haven't seen anything to convince me that you know anything about the subject, and given the fact that you've made several questionable claims (such as vaccines contributing to "super-bugs"), something that someone who was knowlegable would identify as false, I have a good reason to question your knowlege and abilities in the field.

Oh, and lets see... since this thread started, I have posted almost half a dozen links to reputable sites in support of statements I've made. (Reputable meaning peer-reviewed, or government-run/non-corporate, etc.) The number of similar links you have posted to support your warped and faulty view? Zero. Nada, Zip. Ziltch.

So, even if you don't think I'm an "expert" or "knowledgable", I am willing to, you know, actually do the reasarch.

[Sir Bandelot]

You were the one who brought up my personal background, and you were the one who actually made the statement "... you need some more education".

Once again, I'm quite happy sticking to the science.

Fine, do that. Science is what I do for a living. Evidently you do't ned more education though, I'll grant you that one. But as to your being right, or anuthing like an expert in immunoogy, that is suspect. Despite all your apparent education and high marks, you didn't get a job in your field. Oh well, good thing theres IT.

[Argus]

Yet you still are one somehow... your need to talk about academic achievements, as though it justifies your expertiise in anything.

And just what exactly qualifies you to speak on this subject? I've seen nothing which indicates you have any particular knowledge on science or medicine, just a paranoia about capitalism.

[Argus]

So does anyone have anything to say on the actual danger, or lack of it, of the H1N1 vaccine - anyone knowledgeable, that is? I had a talk with a nurse today who will be getting the vaccine. She seems confident that the production and testing here is reliable and safe, and said that the vaccine we will be getting is not the one being produced in the US, for example. I would have thought it was all one formula but don't know much about testing methods.

[segnosaur]

Fine, do that. Science is what I do for a living.

No, you work with and maintain medical equipment. You may be the greatest person ever on the face of the earth at working with the equipment you do, but I wouldn't exactly classify that as "science". From your description of your job, you are not doing original research, you are not publishing articles in journals, and there doesn't appear to be any requirement about keeping up to date about things like epidemiology.

If what you do is clasified as "science", then at least some of the work I have done over the past decade similarly counts as "science" (since many of the applications I've developed do have scientific uses.)

Evidently you do't ned more education though, I'll grant you that one. But as to your being right, or anuthing like an expert in immunoogy, that is suspect.

I never claimed to be an "expert". I do claim to be knowlegable about the basics of the field, and I claim to be able to identify (partly based on my knowlege, partly based on basic logic) trustworthy sources of information.

You, on the otherhand, have shown:

- at least one incidence of making 'claims' that demonstrate a lack of understanding of the subject (such as your claims of viruses creating "superbugs")

- Failed to respond to several statements I made (such as questions on herd immunity, risks, companies making vaccines).

Despite all your apparent education and high marks, you didn't get a job in your field.

I didn't want one... I knew before I entered university that I preferred IT.

[Sir Bandelot]

And just what exactly qualifies you to speak on this subject? I've seen nothing which indicates you have any particular knowledge on science or medicine, just a paranoia about capitalism.

By the same token, why are you here?

What qualifies you to ask me, anything at all.

Snatch pebble from hand, grasshopper

[Bryan]

I'm generally impatient with the anti-vaccine people. However, most of the info I've been hearing on NPR has been contradictory at best. I'm still not in the "no vaccines" camp, but I'm becoming skeptical of the motives, efficacy, and safety regarding the H1N1 vaccines specifically. There are just too many unanswered questions about this particular vaccine for me.

[Argus]

By the same token, why are you here?

What qualifies you to ask me, anything at all.

Snatch pebble from hand, grasshopper

Why am I here? Well, I had a question. I wondered, and so I posted it. And while he seems to speak with a knowledgeable voice, you, who brags that science is your profession, speak like someone completely unfamiliar with even the basic terminology, never mind the standards and methdology. In fact, you write like a conspiracy wacko.

[Sir Bandelot]

From your description of your job, you are not doing original research, you are not publishing articles in journals, and there doesn't appear to be any requirement about keeping up to date about things like epidemiology.

Of course we do that in medical physics, and I have been involved in many research projects. We have journals, we have posters and conferences. This is an important part of our department. I only outlined the most basic part of my job- clinical services. But research is what attracts people to this field. Naturally in our case research is related to new clinical applications, such as better definition of the tumour volume, achieving higher doses to the tumour vs healthy tissue, and better dose accuracy. Computer modeling, 3-D imaging and whats called conformal Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) are the current areas of interest. There are many other interesting things going on, like gel dosimetry. You can look these things up if you dont believe me. Check out http://www.medphys.ca, homepage of the medical physics organization.

Personally I enjoy my science hobbies at home, I like astronomy and spectroscopy in particular. So in my own way I am a "propeller-head" as I like to call it.

Look I dont want to brag, and it doesn't matter. Sometimes working late at night I talk to the cleaner, and he's knowledgeable about current events, more than most people I work with. Being well educated does not make me an expert in everything including immunology, no. I would not make such claims. I know what I know, through work and other experiences. I have my own biases. Arguing with people here is simply a diversion, a place to relax.

And bug people a little...

I never take what is said here too seriously.

I see other people here getting totally pissed off about these debates. But you know who I think has a great attitude? Dog On Porch.

Even though like most people I can't stand the friggin guy!

Edited October 16, 2009 by Sir Bandelot

[segnosaur]

Yet you still are one somehow... your need to talk about academic achievements, as though it justifies your expertiise in anything.

And just what exactly qualifies you to speak on this subject? I've seen nothing which indicates you have any particular knowledge on science or medicine, just a paranoia about capitalism.

In another thread, he claimed that he works in a hospital, using and maintaing equipment used in cancer treatment.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean he's knowlegable about disease transmission, virology, etc.... there's a very good chance that his 'knowledge' is focused solely on how to maintain/use the equipment he works on. (And given some of the claims he's made, it is a strong possibility. He never did tell us what his academic background was.)

So does anyone have anything to say on the actual danger, or lack of it, of the H1N1 vaccine - anyone knowledgeable, that is?

There's pretty much no risk to actually receiving the vaccine. The only 2 side effects are for people allergic to eggs (the flu vaccine uses chicken eggs during an incubation stage), and a possible link to Guillain-Barre syndrome. (Guillain-Barre is an immune disease that is triggered by infection.)

Guillain-Barre occurs in less than 1 out of every million vaccinations (it works out to 0.4 for every million vaccinations given.) Of course, since Guillain-Barre is triggered by an immune response, its quite likely that had the individuals not been vaccinated, they may have still contracted Guillain-Barre from a later influenza infection anyways.

So, if you get vaccinated, you'll have a 0.00004% chance of contracting Guillain-Barre (a disease that is usually not fatal). On the other hand, around 36,000 people in the U.S. die each year from the flu, about 0.012% of the population.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15562126

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0FS...77/ai_99237596/

Of course, as with any medical procedure, there is always the chance of 'mistakes'... contaminated vaccines, improper handling of equipment. But I am unaware of any reports of this being an issue lately. That makes it hard to estimate the risk from something like that. Plus, there is a chance of a low fever, sore arm, or minor aches, none of which are dangerous, and which should disappear rather quickly.

The biggest 'danger' is not that the vaccine will cause harm, but that the vaccine won't protect you for some version of the flu that's going around. However, even if this does happen, you often have cases where a vaccine provides at least partial protection against other strains. So, you're still better off getting vaccinated than not.

I had a talk with a nurse today who will be getting the vaccine. She seems confident that the production and testing here is reliable and safe, and said that the vaccine we will be getting is not the one being produced in the US, for example. I would have thought it was all one formula but don't know much about testing methods.

Not sure exactly what she's talking about...

She might be referring to a nasal mist form of the vaccine that they have in the U.S. Here in Canada, we only have the injection method (containing dead viruses). In the U.S., they have an addtional option of the nasal spray, which contains a weakened (but not dead) version of the virus.

http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/about/qa/nasalspray.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/protect/keyfacts.htm

Edited October 16, 2009 by segnosaur

[segnosaur]

From your description of your job, you are not doing original research, you are not publishing articles in journals, and there doesn't appear to be any requirement about keeping up to date about things like epidemiology.

Of course we do that in medical physics, and I have been involved in many research projects. We have journals, we have posters and conferences. This is an important part of our department. I only outlined the most basic part of my job- clinical services. But research is what attracts people to this field. Naturally in our case research is related to new clinical applications, such as better definition of the tumour volume, achieving higher doses to the tumour vs healthy tissue, and better dose accuracy.

That still doesn't tell me how much of the actual "science" work you do or what your experience is. Do you design studies? Do you analyze the statistics obtained from the data? Do you design new equipment? Or are you just following the orders of phsicians or more "qualified" scientists? And do you you actually have any academic experience relevant to virology or epidemiology? Or is all your knowlege related to on the job training?

And if you're knowledgable about the subject, why do you make so many mistakes in the basic knowledge?

Look I dont want to brag, and it doesn't matter. Sometimes working late at night I talk to the cleaner, and he's knowledgeable about current events, more than most people I work with. Being well educated does not make me an expert in everything including immunology, no.

But we still don't know if you have even a passing knowledge of immunology.

Heck, even I (a supporter of vaccination) have pointed out more actual problems with vaccines than you have.

I would not make such claims. I know what I know, through work and other experiences.

Do any of those experience involve learning about viruses or disease transission?

[wyly]

I'm in the age group that is resistant to this virus but it could mutate and come back in a stronger version just as the Spanish Flu did....so it's free, it's harmless why not...

[Guest katara]

well i voted no. because there is no outbreak here and the department of health here says so that we need not to panic. Though there have been reports about H1N1 case in various locations. According to them cleanliness is still a big factor. thats why you should always wash your hands and cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing. Good sanitation is really a must even if there is no virus outbreak.

how to get pregnant

[Sir Bandelot]

You keep asking about more details of what I do. Why does it matter so much, segnosaur. Because you doubt me, don't you. But I'll be patient and try to answer every question.

Do you design studies?

Studies involving a team of researchers are not designed by one person, but by a committee of senior scientists. I'm not on that committee.

Do you analyze the statistics obtained from the data? Do you design new equipment?

Yes, absolutely. This is something I do almost every day. Not just crunching numbers, but understanding what its implications are, in practical reality. I also had the privilege of designing the electronics and control system for a cobalt 60 treatment machine. among countless projects that I've forgotten about over the year. This worked successfully to treat breast cancer for many years, until it was decommissioned. It is now used in a veterinary clinic in Guelph, to treat horses and rich peoples pets.

Or are you just following the orders of phsicians or more "qualified" scientists?

Well my boss is a PhD physicist. He likes to think he can tell me what to do! But he does not know how linear accelerators work, other than a few equations. I would say we have an excellent collaborative relationship.

And do you you actually have any academic experience relevant to virology or epidemiology? Or is all your knowlege related to on the job training?

No segnosaur, I work in cancer care, specifically in radiation therapy. This is physics. High energy particles. Electrons accelerated to 99% the speed of light. X-Ray photons. Ionization. There is no formal university training available for particle accelerator engineering. The field is too small, too few jobs and not enough to make a business case for the universities. We start out by hiring engineers and training them in physics, and the related technology. The companies that build these machines provide some training as well. http://www.varian.com/ have a long history in the development of accelerators and other high power microwave devices.

And if you're knowledgable about the subject, why do you make so many mistakes in the basic knowledge?

What do you mean, what mistakes. If the topic is about radiation physics there will be no mistakes.

If the topic is virology, or immunology, as I stated previously no I am not an expert. Tak Mak is an expert. My field is physics engineering.

Do any of those experience involve learning about viruses or disease transission?

There is evidence that certain cancers are linked to viruses. Its not necessary for me to know, to do my job. But there is a lot of cancer research going on in microbiology, and the papers are often posted on bulletin boards in the research area. I read them sometimes for my own interest. In some cases it might as well be written in chinese.

I hope that answers some of your questions. Maybe you would enjoy getting into this field. If you like physics, this is pretty good stuff. More fun than mixing chemicals, imo.

[Sir Bandelot]

I'm in the age group that is resistant to this virus but it could mutate and come back in a stronger version just as the Spanish Flu did....so it's free, it's harmless why not...

If you want it you should get it. I doubt it will do you any harm. It might not be totally harmless though. If there's a statistical chance that it could harm you, that should be weighed against the risk of being harmed by the virus. And if you're in the low risk group already, thats an important question to ask. Like if the risk of being harmed by the virus approaches the risk of being harmed by the vaccine, then it might not make sense to get it.

But I'm no expert... ask Segnosaur

[GostHacked]

When I graduated college with Honours in Computer Networking. it did not take me long to find out I actually know very little about computers and networking. After two years of being a sysadmin/support anylist ... i know a crap load more, but still just the tip of the iceberd. So, to you who are just graduating and think you got it all, a quick dose of reality humbles you and then you just shut up and learn something.

ON that note, I'll vote no on this vaccine. Overall this new strain has not killed more people than regular seasonal flu. So there is no need to freak out over this bit. The vaccine has definately been rushed because I don't see reports of real clinical tests showing the effectiveness of the vaccine. Healthy people simply do not need the vaccine.

Wyly

I'm in the age group that is resistant to this virus but it could mutate and come back in a stronger version just as the Spanish Flu did....so it's free, it's harmless why not...

Which would make the currenct vaccination useless against future mutations. Part of the reason it is difficult to get a decent vaccination for HIV/AIDS, it mutates constantly, you'd need several vaccinations to combat all the variations.

Sir Bandelot

I see other people here getting totally pissed off about these debates. But you know who I think has a great attitude? Dog On Porch.

Even though like most people I can't stand the friggin guy! laugh.gif

Dog's alright by me!!

[segnosaur]

ON that note, I'll vote no on this vaccine. Overall this new strain has not killed more people than regular seasonal flu. So there is no need to freak out over this bit.

Well, you are right in that nobody needs to 'freak out'. And yes, mortality rates are certainly not so bad that the population is being decimated. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that we shouldn't take action.

After all, do you have fire insurance on your house? Or do you just wait until you hear that there is an arsonist living in your neighbourhood? Believe it or not, there IS a middle ground between outright panic and total apathy.

Add what it is with people suggesting that it is OK because it doesn't kill more people than regular seasonal flu? Did you ever think that preventing deaths is a 'good thing', even if we've had similar death rates in the past? Let me put it another way, if somebody hit you in the head with a hammer every day for the past year, and then said they were going to hit you in the head with a crowbar every day for the NEXT year, would you say "Oh, its OK, because I'm used to getting hit in the head". Really, it boggles the mind.

Please, explain to me why you think that its ok to have people die now from preventable diseases, just because they had been dying of a similar preventable disease previously.

The best model about what might happen comes from Australia. (They're a 'westernized' society, similar demographics to ours, and their flu season comes earlier than ours.) So, what's happened there? Lets see:

- Both seasonal flu strains and H1N1 'swine flu' are both circulating, but H1N1 seems to have become the most wide spread

- When comparing H1N1 to past seasonal flu seasons, H1N1 seems to have caused fewer problems (e.g. hospitalization) among the elderly and young children. However, for adults, the the flu seems to have had a greater impact. In fact, in some age ranges, the number of hospitalizations is around 50% higher for non-senior adults. And if you look at mortality, the highest number of deaths seems to involve people between 35-65.

See: http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/pub...u-no12-2009.pdf

The vaccine has definately been rushed because I don't see reports of real clinical tests showing the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Yes, vaccine development and production happens quickly. Given the nature of influenza demographics, it has to happen that way.

Yeah, it would be nice to have the time to do lengthy double-blind trials for each potential vaccine every year. But even though we don't there is still plenty of evidence showing that the influenza vaccine is both safe and effective. (They've been using the influenza vaccine for decades, and there's no reason to assume that the safety and effectiveness this year will be any worse than in previous years.)

For example, if we look at previous years:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15562126 (points out how rare the side effects are)

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/357/14/1373 (points out a 48% reduction in death in vaccinated seniors)

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMoa0708630 (points to a reduction in the number of cases of influenza in pregnant women when vaccinated.)

Now, given that there is evidence that the vaccine has been effective in previous years, it is more likely that the current H1N1 vaccine will be effective this year. After all, manufacturing methods are the same, and the viruses are related.

Healthy people simply do not need the vaccine.

I still don't understand people's rational for that...

I've already pointed out (and the figures from Australia provide evidence) that people who are 'healthy' can and do fall seriously ill, and sometimes die from the influenza. In some ways, 'healthy' people are at an even greater risk than some that are considered more 'sickly'. Even if you think you're don't stand much of a chance of being seriously ill or dying, why accept even a small risk, when that risk can be minimized (even if not eliminated) with pretty much no effort or risk to you?

Please, explain your reasoning. Are you some kind of crazed adreneline junky who enjoys taking unnecessary risks (even if those risks are small)? Or do you honestly think that no 'healthy' person, anywhere in the world, has ever ended up dying or getting hospitalized from influenza?

And I've repeatedly pointed out that even if you think your chance of dying is quite small, you can still pass on the virus to people who are more at risk. Is your caring and concern for other people so minimal that you're unwilling to take a little time to go get a flu shot?

Please, those are 2 reasonable questions that I'm dying to know the answer to.

I'm in the age group that is resistant to this virus but it could mutate and come back in a stronger version just as the Spanish Flu did....so it's free, it's harmless why not...

Which would make the currenct vaccination useless against future mutations.

Not exactly correct... after all, even if a virus mutates, it may still have some components that are kept in common which will help the immune system respond to similar infections in the future. In fact, that's one of the things they're finding with the current N1H1 outbreak... elderly people seem to be less "at risk" than younger people, and that might be due to the fact that hey were exposed to simmilar (but slightly different) forms of virus in the past.

Plus... the best way to eliminate future mutations is to stop the virus today. You see, viruses are unable to replicate outside of a host, and it is during the replication process that mutations often occur. However, the more people that get immunized now, the fewer potential hosts that can be infected by the virus, and the less chance that one of the sick people will be an incubator for a mutated strain.

[Argus]

An intersting piece in the Post today asserts that the H1N1 is actually a rather benign form of flu which is only about 1/10th as lethal as normal, seasonal flu, but is being hyped for political reasons.

National Post

[GostHacked]

Segnosaur

After all, do you have fire insurance on your house? Or do you just wait until you hear that there is an arsonist living in your neighbourhood? Believe it or not, there IS a middle ground between outright panic and total apathy.

Yes I have fire insurance. And there are more valid and more important issues than arsonists. Faulty electrical in the house, or faulty products you buy that need electricity. I would bet more fires are started accidentaly by cigarettes than purposely by arson!

You simply need to address what is the most likely and most common risk. Common and weighing the threats us that middle ground.

Add what it is with people suggesting that it is OK because it doesn't kill more people than regular seasonal flu? Did you ever think that preventing deaths is a 'good thing', even if we've had similar death rates in the past? Let me put it another way, if somebody hit you in the head with a hammer every day for the past year, and then said they were going to hit you in the head with a crowbar every day for the NEXT year, would you say "Oh, its OK, because I'm used to getting hit in the head". Really, it boggles the mind.

If someone hit me in the head with a hammer once, I would hurt him back and twice as hard. They would not get a chance to use the crowbar and go all Gordon Freeman on my ass. And this is a really really horrible comparison or analogy.

Please, explain your reasoning. Are you some kind of crazed adreneline junky who enjoys taking unnecessary risks (even if those risks are small)? Or do you honestly think that no 'healthy' person, anywhere in the world, has ever ended up dying or getting hospitalized from influenza?

Well, you can go ahead and have the vaccine. My logic behind it is that I have not had a vaccine in over 20 years. And have been sick with the flu maybe once since then. I got the flu much more often when I was a kid.

And I've repeatedly pointed out that even if you think your chance of dying is quite small, you can still pass on the virus to people who are more at risk. Is your caring and concern for other people so minimal that you're unwilling to take a little time to go get a flu shot?

If I am sick, even with a cold, I stay home and don't want to infect others. If I am a carrier, but not getting sick, from a medical view, I'd try to understand why that happens! What do I have that prevents me from getting sick and how can that help others? That is hypothetical mind you, but a train of thought that needs to be considered.

[GostHacked]

An intersting piece in the Post today asserts that the H1N1 is actually a rather benign form of flu which is only about 1/10th as lethal as normal, seasonal flu, but is being hyped for political reasons.

National Post

Interesting piece. And yeah SARS was not as bad as it should have been. Good perspective.

[segnosaur]

An intersting piece in the Post today asserts that the H1N1 is actually a rather benign form of flu which is only about 1/10th as lethal as normal, seasonal flu, but is being hyped for political reasons.

National Post

That article was written by Michael Fumento. Fumento is a "science writer" who, in my opinion, does tend to do a good job at pointing out when people are "over-reacting". (For example, he has pointed out how politicians and organizations were wrong about things like SARS and HIV transmission.) Of course, no sourse of information is perfect...

Fumento may be quite right... there is a certain amount of 'panic politics' that can set in.

However, I think he may be wrong about some of the information about the flu. For example, the claim that the flu is "1/10th as lethal" may be due to statistics from New York City. However, we aren't even IN flu season yet in North America.

On the other hand, Australia's flu season starts earlier than ours. H1N1 certainly hasn't caused widespread deaths there, but it has hit the "healthy" adult population harder than the elderly or children (the groups traditionally at risk). That might make the disease less "lethal" overall, but put groups at risk that might otherwise have not had to worry.