Will the Liberals take a hit?

[August1991]

Current polls (Environics) put:

Lib 39

CPC 29

NDP 19

BQ 11

Compare the last pre-writ polls and (Election Results) below:

Nov 2000

Lib 50 (41)

PC 8 (12)

CA 22 (26)

NDP 8 (9)

BQ 10 (11)

Jun 1997

Lib 44 (39)

PC 20 (19)

Ref 15 (19)

NDP 8 (11)

BQ 10 (11)

Oct 1993

Lib 33 (41)

PC 36 (16)

Ref 11 (19)

NDP 8 (7)

BQ 10 (14)

It's clear that the Liberals (as incumbents) have got hit between the poll and the vote. In addition, the polls systematically undersestimate the Reform/CA vote.

If the Liberals drop 5 to 34 and the CPC rises to 35, we have a hung parliament.

The NDP is clearly on a roll (in relative terms). They're back to their pre-Rae levels. But will these numbers turn into seats?

Pre-Election Poll & Election Data

[BigGunner]

Obviously the Liberals will take a hit. They deserve nothing less than an electoral slap in the face due to the abusive relationship they have with the voters of this country.

[willy]

recently extended Air Canada's protection under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act to May 21 from April 15. That raises the possibility that the company would have to make dramatic cuts -- likely including massive layoffs and the elimination of service to many smaller communities -- during the coming election campaign.

The Globe and Mail

Here is another hit the Liberals will take. If the government steps in and bails out Air Canada this will hurt the Liberals the most in Alberta and BC. In BC we still remember the government not helping Canadian Airlines. This will just reinforce the traditional view of the Liberals in Alberta where West Jet is based.

If the government stays out Quebec numbers will go even lower.

The timing of some of these things will make this an election to remember.