Election Results Forecasting

[maplesyrup]

The Paul Martin/Liberal fumble

Much is being written about the prospects of a Liberal minority government. But, with the Conservatives and Liberals showing even support outside Quebec, the first-past-the-post might not be who we think. / Assume then, that the Bloc wins 50-60 seats, and the NDP 30-40. That leaves 208-218 seats up for grabs. At even strength, the Liberals and Conservatives each will get something over 100 seats in the next election. Neither will want to form a government with support from the Bloc.Combined Liberal and NDP support may or may not total a majority. Indeed, the unknown factor is how the surprising support for the Greens will affect NDP prospects, particularly in B.C., where the Greens are polling 10-15 per cent.

One prospect is for a Liberal-Conservative government, or a Conservative-Liberal government. Hard to have imagined before, it's now a better bet than a Liberal majority, although a more likely outcome is a hung parliament, with no stable alliance possible among the parties.

What might then prove attractive to Liberals and Conservatives is NDP leader Jack Layton's proposal for proportional representation — PR. Since a follow-up election under PR would reduce the number of Bloc MPs in a hung parliament, that idea might generate new-found support.

These are the words of Duncan Cameron, a political columnist out of Quebec.

Interesting analysis.

[August1991]

MapleSyrup, thank you for starting the Health thread. But IMV, the Link in this thread is pointless.

Being PM, and getting seats in the Federal House of Commons, is a regional game. You have to do the numbers province by province. The BNA Act was designed, with reason, that way. That's, wonderfully, Canada.

Ontario maybe deserves its own regional breakdown. North of Sudbury-North Bay. Ottawa South East. London South west. Toronto.

For this election, by and large, you wind up with Liberal/Tory minority depending on how you decide Ontario.

[maplesyrup]

August1991..... Cameron does not say how he arrived at his totals, so he may well have done it as you mentioned.

What I like about his forecast is that he does not appear to be attached to any political party, and therefore does not have an axe to grind like most, if not all, of the media political pundits.

I found it to be very refreshing & realistic. I had already reflected on a Liberal-Conservative alliance to govern, as those two parties have the most in common with each other.

[Alliance Fanatic]

Say Maplesyrup, can you please tell us all what the Conservative party, and the Liberal's have in common, please go to the website and point out the policies that both parties have in common. The fact is that if you were to go to one of those websites that did a survey on whether a party is right wing or left wing, the conservatives would be moderates, Liberals left of centre, and NDP radical left.

[August1991]

Liberals left of centre

I'm astonished that you can place the Liberals anywhere. I thought the secret of the Liberals' enduring success was that they had no fixed position on anything.

[Alliance Fanatic]

A party that funds abortion with taxpayer money, supports big government, and is socially liberal on every single issue is left of centre. May I also add that the Liberals are also left of centre on economic issues such as taxes, spending money on stupid BS, etc. All are a common traits among the left of centre crowd.

[maplesyrup]

Everything is relative I guess.

If one is like me and sees PM Martin getting $162,000,000. in loans and grants for his Canada Steamships Lines for example, and Conservatives promoting tax reductions, and tax breaks for the rich, that is right wing to me. So Liberal - Conservative, same dif.

If one is right wing and sees parties supporting bilingualism, or immigrants, like the NDP and the Liberals, then one might say, ah ha, left wingers.

Follow the money is my criteria to differentiate wherther a party is right wing or left wing.