What's the NDP's price to support the Tories?

[August1991]

I predicted a federal election in the fall 2009, once the federal Liberals had paid their debts and were better organized. (Organized? The Liberals don't need an organization. The Liberals just need a good front man.)

Then again, to have an election, the government must fall and in this parliament, that requires all three opposition parties voting against. Why would the NDP vote to lose seats?

Ivison helpfullylists the likely conditions:

Logic suggests the NDP and the government will find common cause - neither wants an election anytime soon, in the face of a resurgent Liberal Party - but an accommodation is much more likely to be on the three priorities Mr. Layton unveiled in a speech on Monday, namely, Employment Insurance reforms, limits on credit card interest rate increases and pension protection.

National Post

IMV, credit card interest rates are a non-starter (unless Harper agreed to let foreign banks issue credit cards in Canada). The government should not regulate interest rate limits.

Pensions? I don't see why the government should bail out private contract arrangements except in very precise, well announced ways. If teh federal government guarantees private pensions (eg. GM and Chrysler), then all private pensions (private contract) will consider government support as an option. Who would you marry if one potential spouse had the backing of the Canadian government? Would such a guarantee make for more honest, love-filled marriages?

EI? Canada's Unemployment Insurance scheme deserves radical reform. The BNA Act makes it a federal jurisdiction. If I were Harper, I would take up Layton's call for fundamental EI reform. Duceppe may even agree to participate.

Then again, what a risky proposition.

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So. Will we have a federal election in 2009 or will Layton/Duceppe choose to support the Tories?

Last point. Layton -ever the ideologue- may decide that while the NDP will lose seats in an election, minority PM Ignatieff may help the NDP agenda more.

Edited April 23, 2009 by August1991

[Smallc]

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/04/22/...herty-0422.html

[August1991]

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/04/22/...herty-0422.html

From your link:

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says the Canadian government is working on regulating credit card companies, whose interest rates remain high despite aggressive rate reductions by the Bank of Canada.

I think "working on" is the key phrase. The US Congress has been "working on" various restrictions on interest rates for decades.

Nevertheless, this implies that the Tories are willing to dance with the NDP. It's an opening gambit, like a glance across the dance hall.

[jdobbin]

So. Will we have a federal election in 2009 or will Layton/Duceppe choose to support the Tories?

If Harper has to reply on separatists and socialists to survive in a coalition, do you think he will name BQ or PQ to the Senate? Do you think he will have an NDPer a cabinet minister?

No?

Think the well has been poisoned. If any of these three parties find common cause their own words will come back to haunt them. Their past votes in opposition to one another will come back to haunt them.

Last point. Layton -ever the ideologue- may decide that while the NDP will lose seats in an election, minority PM Ignatieff may help the NDP agenda more.

I think Layton will hope upon hope that the BQ doesn't vote the government down because he can't support the Tories without finding problems with his own party squawking.

[Smallc]

I think "working on" is the key phrase. The US Congress has been "working on" various restrictions on interest rates for decades.

Canada is not the United States. Our government works quite differently.

[August1991]

If Harper has to reply on separatists and socialists to survive in a coalition, do you think he will name BQ or PQ to the Senate? Do you think he will have an NDPer a cabinet minister?

Dion (and Ignatieff) signed a coalition in public with separatists and socialists.

I don't think Harper is so stupid as to do that.

Rather, I wonder whether the NDP will support the Tories. After all, the government only needs one party of three to survive a vote of confidence. Dobbin, do the calculations: This government could last for years.

Canada is not the United States. Our government works quite differently.

Huh? Edited April 23, 2009 by August1991

[Smallc]

Huh?

Our government isn't the Untied States government. What they call working on something may be quite different and has no relevance in Canada.

[August1991]

Our government isn't the Untied States government. What they call working on something may be quite different and has no relevance in Canada.

Smallc, whether in Brussels, Ottawa, Canberra or Washington, "working on" is the bureaucratic equivalent of "monitoring the situation".

Your call.

[Smallc]

"working on" is the bureaucratic equivalent of "monitoring the situation".

Uh huh...It's certainly not what I've come to observe.

[August1991]

Uh huh...It's certainly not what I've come to observe.

Really? Welcome to government in the 21st century.

Obama and other Leftists want more government. Well, more government means more waiting, and more confusion. Trust me.

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Returning to the OP, I wonder what price the minorities Tories should pay to stay in power. If I were Harper, I'd try a reform of Unemployment Insurance legislation.

[Smallc]

Really? Welcome to government in the 21st century.

Obama and other Leftists want more government. Well, more government means more waiting, and more confusion. Trust me.

I spend almost all of my time observing government. Working on something is working on it. Yes, part of that involves monitoring and examination, but it goes far beyond that. Also, more government doesn't have to mean more waiting, and Obama isn't much of a leftist by Canadian standards...nice try though.

[jdobbin]

Dion (and Ignatieff) signed a coalition in public with separatists and socialists.

I don't think Harper is so stupid as to do that.

So his agreement will be secret? Good luck with that. Duceppe keeping quiet about that?

Rather, I wonder whether the NDP will support the Tories. After all, the government only needs one party of three to survive a vote of confidence. Dobbin, do the calculations: This government could last for years.

And Layton will pay a severe price from supporting the Tories just as Harper will pay a price for trying to cater to the NDP in some meaningful way.

[August1991]

Sorry for the thread drift.

I spend almost all of my time observing government. Working on something is working on it. Yes, part of that involves monitoring and examination, but it goes far beyond that. Also, more government doesn't have to mean more waiting, and Obama isn't much of a leftist by Canadian standards...nice try though.

The State and government bureaucracy offer the false security of certainty. Edited April 23, 2009 by August1991

[Smallc]

Government bureaucracy offers the false security of certainty.

Uh huh......so we would be better without it?

[August1991]

Uh huh......so we would be better without it?

No, I'm not a libertarian.

I just think that too many people (Leftists) are naive to believe that the State can make other people honest. Sometimes it can, but not always.

[Cuzzin E]

I've said this before and you all laughed at me. Harper should just give Layton the foreign affairs cabinet post for his support over the next 2 years. But essentially, we now have a conservative-ndp coalition in the works

[Dave_ON]

I honestly doubt we'll have a Fall '09 election. IMV and based on recent information from various bankers and economists they are predicting that recovery will not start until the 4th quarter of this year. This of course means it won't be truly felt or have registered in the minds of the electorate until about the 2nd or 3rd quarter of '10. It's more likely that we are up for an election in Feb '10. This will have given the economic downturn sufficient time to really sink and have maximum impact on the CPC's receding support.

As for the NDP supporting the CPC for any extended period of time I find that to be unlikely, Layton will attempt to milk it for all it's worth as he is the consummate opportunist. But like all opportunists his loyalties only extend until a better opportunity comes along. Jdobbin brings up an excellent point, the NDP's mandate since winter '08 has been to vote very much against the CPC, to come to even an informal agreement with the CPC would cause dissent in the ranks of the NDP. Not to mention all appearances at this point would seem to indicate a Liberal minority is on the horizon. The NDP's objectives would be far easier to achieve in working with the Liberals over the CPC.

[normanchateau]

Rather, I wonder whether the NDP will support the Tories.

Seems like there's now a trend in that direction.

"Today, Mr. Harper responded calmly and favourably to Mr. Layton's call for a crack down on credit card interest rates.

The Prime Minister's change in tone comes as the NDP appears to be laying the groundwork for supporting the Conservatives should Mr. Layton secure policy concessions from Mr. Harper."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/WBwbureaublog

I expect Canadians will respond as favourably to a Harper government propped up by the NDP as they did in December to a Dion Coalition government.

It was Layton who in 2005 pulled the plug on Paul Martin resulting in a Harper government. Ultimately it might be Layton again who pulls the plug on an NDP/Harper government and delivers a majority government to Ignatieff.

[August1991]

I honestly doubt we'll have a Fall '09 election. IMV and based on recent information from various bankers and economists they are predicting that recovery will not start until the 4th quarter of this year.

IOW, there's every reason for Ignatieff and the Liberals to defeat Harper and the Tories.

The Liberals have apparently paid off their debts. They would love a federal election in the Fall 2009.

But to get one, the Liberals will need the support of the NDP and the BQ to defeat the government. Why would the NDP or BQ accept to provoke an election that would see both lose seats and lose influence over the existing government?

I expect Canadians will respond as favourably to a Harper government propped up by the NDP as they did in December to a Dion Coalition government.

On the contrary.

Dion and Ignatieff signed on to a formal coalition. Harper is simply negotiating a confidence vote.

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In the words of Frank Sinatra, if Harper can buy NDP support with credit card rate reform, then the NDP are ten-dollar hookers. OTOH, reform of EI would interest both the BQ and the NDP and may in fact lead to good for all Canadians.