Waiting for that magic number

[maplesyrup]

Article

What does our model show? It shows that if an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would form a strong minority government, with 145 to 150 seats (a majority requires 155 seats). The new Conservative Party would form the Official Opposition with 73 to 78 seats, the Bloc Québécois would dominate Quebec with 57 to 62 seats and the NDP can be expected to win 22 to 27 seats.

A few other interesting points our model reveals:

With 28-per-cent support in Ontario, the Conservatives should win 15 to 20 seats, the Liberals should still dominate with 83 to 88 seats. But if the Tories can increase their support to 31 per cent, they'll win an additional seven to 10 seats; if they can increase it to 33 per cent, they should win a total of 35 to 40 seats;

The Liberals are being crushed in Quebec. Our current model shows they're likely to win only 13 to 18 seats while the Bloc could win 57 to 62 seats;

While the Conservatives dominate in the West, and could win 53 to 58 seats, the Liberals (15 to 20 seats) will do better than most pundits suggest, and should be close to the NDP (15 to 20 seats). Contrary to popular wisdom, the NDP is poised to pick up nearly all of its new seats in the West from the Conservatives, not the Liberals;

Atlantic Canada is almost a complete sweep for the Liberals with only three to eight seats likely to go to the NDP or Tories;

Will Martin be able to get those few extra points and call the election this spring? Time must be of essence now for that, although he does have another year and a half to go.

[August1991]

Thanks for the article. Having read it, there is only one word for these bean counters: Naive. (More words? Trees and forests.)

[maplesyrup]

Interesting to see how accurate Ipsos-Reid was forecasting the last election:

Poll - Nov 24, 2000

Lib 39%

All 27%

PC 12%

NDP 10%

Bloc 10%

Election - Nov 27, 2000

Lib 40.8% up 1.8%

All 25.5% down 1.5%

PC 12.2% up .2%

NDP 8.5% down 1.5%

Bloc 10.7% up .7%

[willy]

Toronto Star

“The Prime Minister also said yesterday, for instance, that he wanted to do more for seasonal workers before calling an election and a report from a Liberal caucus task force on that issue is not due to report until mid-May.”

He is also waiting for the meeting with Bush to be over and then you have the G8 sumit.

I am going for a fall election. More time to organize to get rid of these bums.