Manitoba By Elections

[madmax]

Ok, I didn't even know there were by elections in Manitoba.

So, having scooped Jdobbin in his own Province, I will admit that this thread will be over before you finished reading it...

Who will win these by elections?

By Elections

WINNIPEG — Voters in two Manitoba NDP strongholds go to the polls today.

Provincial byelections are being held in The Pas and in the Elmwood constituency in Winnipeg. Both seats were cakewalks for the NDP in the 2007 general election, when the New Democrat candidates each received more than 60 per cent of the vote and tripled the vote total of their nearest competitor.

The Elmwood race features Bill Blaikie - a long-serving member of Parliament who retired from federal politics last year.

Blaikie is up against Progressive Conservative candidate Adrian Schulz, a young entrepreneur, and Liberal Regan Wolfrom, a small business owner.

In The Pas, former aboriginal chief Frank Whitehead is running for the NDP, Edna Nabess is running for the Tories and Maurice Berens is carrying the Liberal banner

[jdobbin]

Ok, I didn't even know there were by elections in Manitoba.

So, having scooped Jdobbin in his own Province, I will admit that this thread will be over before you finished reading it...

Who will win these by elections?

I never mentioned them since they are both NDP ridings to the core. I can't imagine a different outcome.

[madmax]

I never mentioned them since they are both NDP ridings to the core. I can't imagine a different outcome.

Well, you get to call this one. Even though there is a split decision in the polls so far. In Ontario, with the economy tanking, that the Liberals would not be able to take a seat from the Conservatives, let alone defeat their leader.

I was curious to see if any economic blowback was affecting the current government in Man.

I certainly couldn't see the Icon losing, but I don't know much about Man. Politics.

[blueblood]

Well, you get to call this one. Even though there is a split decision in the polls so far. In Ontario, with the economy tanking, that the Liberals would not be able to take a seat from the Conservatives, let alone defeat their leader.

I was curious to see if any economic blowback was affecting the current government in Man.

I certainly couldn't see the Icon losing, but I don't know much about Man. Politics.

There isn't too much economic hardship out here, our economy and SK's is commodity based, but we have a diversity of commodities.

The Pas and The Peg riding will go NDP. Something drastic would have to happen to get the vote to change. MB is like SK was in the late forties with Douglas at the helm.

[jdobbin]

Well, you get to call this one. Even though there is a split decision in the polls so far. In Ontario, with the economy tanking, that the Liberals would not be able to take a seat from the Conservatives, let alone defeat their leader.

I certainly thought Tory should be able to take a safe seat but parachute candidates sometimes see a backlash in terms of their presence.

In the case of Elmwood in Winnipeg, the NDP picked up the seat with 6 out of 10 votes three elections in a row. They managed to do this with a candidate that was never going to serve in the cabinet of Gary Doer. Ever.

Elmwood was where a certain Conservative named Vic Toews was defeated.

The Pas has been held by the NDP since 1969. It is what Tories and NDP call the yellow dog ridings. There are certain ridings for both parties that are unchangeable and forever. You could run a yellow dog in them as long as it had the right party banner.

I was curious to see if any economic blowback was affecting the current government in Man.

I certainly couldn't see the Icon losing, but I don't know much about Man. Politics.

No blowback here. Doer remains one of the most popular leaders in Canada and has done it without any of the bluster and regionalism that some others have.

The economy keep chugging a long since it is very diversified and the Doer is generally risk adverse. The government reacts rather than acts for the most part.

[jbg]

MB is like SK was in the late forties with Douglas at the helm.

Doer does it.

[Smallc]

Meanwhile, Progressive Conservative Leader Hugh McFadyen took solace in the fact that the NDP's margin of victory in Elmwood was lower than in past elections.

The NDP have won more than 60 per cent of the vote in the constituency for at least the past three elections until its "dramatic slide" to just above 50 per cent Tuesday night, he said.

"Clearly there's a pretty dramatic shift against the NDP, certainly in Elmwood, and it's consistent with what we're seeing across the city of Winnipeg," McFadyen said.

Winnipeg Free Press

Yeah, that's how I'd interpret that result....

[BubberMiley]

Elmwood was where a certain Conservative named Vic Toews was defeated.

Toews was actually defeated in adjacent (to the north) Rossmere.

[jdobbin]

Toews was actually defeated in adjacent (to the north) Rossmere.

I was referring to the 1990 election when he tried and failed to win Elmwood. He came in second to Jim Maloway.

[madmax]

THE RESULTS

Elmwood

Based on 45 of 45 voting stations reporting:

Bill Blaikie, NDP 2,325

Adrian Schulz, PC Manitoba 913

Regan Wolfrom, Liberal 877

James Beddome, Green Party of Manitoba 210

The Pas

Based on 61of 63 voting stations reporting:

Frank Whitehead, NDP 2,896

Edna Nabess, PC Manitoba 721

Maurice Berens, Liberal 254

-- The Canadian Press

I find a couple things interesting. That only a few thousand bother to vote, or the number of people in a riding is very very small, compared to Ontario. Roughly 30,000 turned out for the Ontario By Election.

In Elmwood, the size of the opposition vote is almost evenly split.

In the Pas, it looks like a Native background/understanding is required to win the seat.

All in All a free pass for the government. Not the surprise By election result we had in Ontario. Few people would have predicted John Tory losing a safe seat that had a 60% plus vote for the PCs before he lost it.

Blaikie was the only candidate I have any knowledge of, and that is because of his length of service at the Federal Level. Even then, don't know much about him, other then he ran for the leadership of the Federal NDP.

[jdobbin]

I find a couple things interesting. That only a few thousand bother to vote, or the number of people in a riding is very very small, compared to Ontario. Roughly 30,000 turned out for the Ontario By Election.

No real drama. It was a foregone conclusion. Plus the weather sucked and people are dealing with flooding/snow at least in the city.

In Elmwood, the size of the opposition vote is almost evenly split.

In the Pas, it looks like a Native background/understanding is required to win the seat.

The Liberals actually did better in the riding but to that extent, what did it matter? Both seats are NDP now and probably NDP forever.

All in All a free pass for the government. Not the surprise By election result we had in Ontario. Few people would have predicted John Tory losing a safe seat that had a 60% plus vote for the PCs before he lost it.

Doer remains popular. If he called an election today, he would win again.

Blaikie was the only candidate I have any knowledge of, and that is because of his length of service at the Federal Level. Even then, don't know much about him, other then he ran for the leadership of the Federal NDP.

It is hard to say if he will make a good minister. The only job aside from MP was that of deputy speaker.

It may be hard for him to move beyond an Opposition mindset but I think he began to see the futility of so many years in Ottawa and chasing your tail.