Despite recent turmoil, voter support unchanged

[maplesyrup]

CPC 27%

Lib 38%

NDP 15%

Grn 5%

Oth 4%

Und 12%

Despite recent turmoil, voter support unchanged

CTV.ca News Staff

A federal budget, a Conservative leadership convention, a billion dollar bailout plan for ranchers and startling revelations about the federal sponsorship scandal haven't changed the way Canadian voters feel about the country's major political parties, according to a new poll.

Many observers had expected a change in the national breakdown following the latest round of polling. But an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released Friday indicates almost no change in support levels.

Despite the continued stain of the sponsorship scandal, support for the governing Liberals is unchanged at 38 per cent. Meanwhile, the coronation of Stephen Harper as inaugural leader of the Conservative Party failed to boost support beyond 27 per cent, up one point from the last poll.

http://www.ctv.com/

[August1991]

Press release here:

Ipsos Reid CTV G&M

It was conducted 23 to 25 March, with 1000 sample size.

[maplesyrup]

Devastating news for CPC, nothing good for the NDP either, and I assume now that the Liberals will go on to form a majority government.

[willy]

Interesting to see those under 35 with driving some of the numbers for the Liberals.

This could help the Conservatives as those over 35 are more likely to vote. After all it is not support we measure but votes.

Martin will have to have guts to go early.

maplesyrup, look at the numbers closely. These numbers guarantee a minority government. 12 percent still undecided could still shift it strongly one way or the other.

Take into account election time sees swings in vote up to 20% base on past results.

This will be a barn burner.

[August1991]

Interesting to see those under 35 with driving some of the numbers for the Liberals.

I noticed the same thing too, Willy.

The key here is how Ontario votes - many Ontario voters, particularly younger ones, don't pay much attention to politics. Many perceive the Liberals as the natural governing party and answer such in a poll. In an election campaign, the situation is different.

A lot will turn too on how Ontario voters perceive Harper. I suspect he is still seen by many as a fringe candidate.

With that said, the facts are there. I thought the CPC would get a post-convention bounce.

[willy]

No bounce didn't surprise me. Too much noise, and apathy.

Adscam Committee, BSE announcement, budget, Spain bombings.

Point is, it was a busy news week.

I am amazed that more people don't seem engaged.

This might be the democracy deficit that Martin has talked about. Low interest and apathy towards all politicians and it is being driven by scandals. The sponsorship scandal is on the heals of a dozen corporate scandals in the last year.

Institutions and their leaders are not trusted.

My read of the interest in the CPC is an extension of this. All politicians are the same, when the lips move they are lying. (public, not my sentiment)

It would be a good time for someone to emerge that demonstrates strong integrity over time.

[August1991]

All good points, Willy. That Public Accounts Committee has turned into farce, or is being portrayed as a Tory witchhunt or something.

All politicians are the same, when the lips move they are lying.

That's a very common perception in southern Ontario where people are busy getting on with life, paying mortgages. These people will pay attention when the election is called.

Harris would argue that these people will vote Tory if the message is presented properly. But I don't if they'll accept Harper.

[August1991]

Atlantic Canada:

Libs: 47%

CPC: 31%

NDP: 14%

Ontario:

Libs: 47%

CPC: 28%

NDP: 17%

I find astonishing that Ontario and Atlantic Canada have virtually the same opinion. Half of voters will vote Liberal.

In the Maritimes, I can understand this. But in Ontario, the only explanations I can think of is that 1) many voters are answering by rote or 2) many voters feel they have no alternative.

I simply cannot believe that anyone in Ontario is voting Liberal with genuine enthusiasm.

[August1991]

There's another poll due tonight as well - CROP La Presse.

[Goldie]

I liked the part of the poll that suggested Harper at 25% of "who do you think would make the best PM". Yes, Martin is at 39%, but I think in January of this year the numbers where, Martin 61%, to Harper 9%.

This is an incredible closing of the gap that may be due to increased media exposure from the leadership event. This could become much closer during the all out media blitz of an election.

[sir_springer]

The poll was taken from 2 to 5 days after the convention.

Expecting a significant bounce immediately on the heels of Harper's election is being more than a tad naive.

While polling now becomes increasingly relevant as talk of an election ramps up, and people start to actually consider their options for more than 10 seconds, we won't see big changes until the event is actually declared.

Historically, I would remind everyone of a few pertinent items:

1) In 1984, Mulroney et al started further back than 11% behind the Libs.

2) In 1993, Chretien et al started further back than 11% behind Kimmy and the PCs.

3) The Liberals always backslide once the election is actually called.

4) BC entered the last election with the CA, after trailing the Liberals for most of midterm polling, at about the same level as the CPC are in this poll...38%...and almost immediately leapt to about 49%, where they finished on election day.

5) A mere shift of 5.5%...i.e., about 5 Liberal voters in 100...to the CPC puts them tied at 32.5%.

Bottom line:

The Libs are deffinitely within striking distance.

And Harper is only just getting started.

Up until now he's been campaigning to Conservative members.

Now the real war begins...with Pauly and the Liberals.

Oh, and BTW...

Layton is screwed.

NDP support has peaked and is now starting to fade back to traditional levels.

Say goodnight Jacko.

Goodnight Jacko.

[maplesyrup]

With that said, the facts are there.  I thought the CPC would get a post-convention bounce.

This is the big story of this poll. No post convention bounce for the Conservatives.

Absolutely devastating news for Conservative supporters.

The margin of error is 3.1% so any ups, or downs, less than that, are irelevant.

Do you remember the media coverage last week leading up to the Conservative convention? It was massive.

Combined with all the problems the Liberals are having these days sorting out the scandals.

It appears to me that the Conservatives have peaked, and will now begin to head South.

And I notice the Bloc is finally starting to shed some of its lead as well.

Unfortunately it looks like a majority Liberal government to me.

[legamus]

to be honest, i'll be more than a little surprised if these poll numbers hold up until whenever the election is. regardless of whatever your traditional political affiliation is, it is undeniable that the current government has been caught pretty much stealing tax dollars on a pretty massive scale (it is pretty massive isn't it?) and is borderline abusing its power. the simplest and most objective explanation i can see is that they've been in power too long and have grown complacent. the solution is that they need to be removed. i think that is what we saw happen in ontario and the electorate took care of it. that is why i'll be almost shocked if conservative numbers don't improve. what the heck is the point of having a right to vote if people use that right to let their governments do to them what they did when they didn't have that right?!?