Horizon Project

[Topaz]

Anyone here ever heard of this, Horizon Project? I was listening to guy last night, and apparently this privately funded foundation, is a bunch of scientist that are studying the earth and he was saying that they think 2012, the poles are going to shift, the equator is going to move north. The oceans will rise and people along all coast will die, 5 European countries will be underwater. He said all this is scientific findings and that they are headed to Antarctic to measure the ice cap. www.Horizon Project.com

[AngusThermopyle]

Oh man! Not another "this guy said"ype of post.

Anyway, back to topic. We've known for quite some time now that the Earths poles change about every 100,000 years, nothing new there. The Apocalypse aspect is new though. All previous research that I've read on this subject has no mention of such catastrophies, in fact it all pretty well states that the shift would be unoticeable apart from navigation issues.

It would help if just once you could tell us who these guys are.

[Wilber]

The equator is going to move north eh, then it wouldn't be the equator any more would it, just another parallel. Jeesh.

Edited January 13, 2009 by Wilber

[Wild Bill]

Oh man! Not another "this guy said"ype of post.

Anyway, back to topic. We've known for quite some time now that the Earths poles change about every 100,000 years, nothing new there. The Apocalypse aspect is new though. All previous research that I've read on this subject has no mention of such catastrophies, in fact it all pretty well states that the shift would be unoticeable apart from navigation issues.

It would help if just once you could tell us who these guys are.

Well, I went to their site and sure enough, it's another of those pseudo-scientific sites mixing physics with Egyptian pyramids. They list a "Horizon Team" icon but when you click on it you have to pay attention because suddenly what you were told was a list of their team becomes a list of names they actually consider sources! They start with Einstein and Heisenberg, who of course were dead long before the Horizon Project got started.

If you read enough of their site and you have even a modest scientific education you will quickly see that they are long on supposition and short on any direct and conclusive evidence. The basic concept is nearly a century old, at least. It has never gained serious credibility.

These people all seem to operate on what I call the "WatchTower" 'scientific' argument. Years ago I read through a stack of WatchTower magazines. Every issue had what was touted as a scientific article and since I was a science kid I read every one of them, until I finally figured out what they were doing.

No matter what the scientific point of the article, the argument always followed the same steps. For instance, it might start by stating that the Moon goes around the Earth. Most folks know that and of course they would nod their head. Then they would say that the Earth in turn orbits the Sun and again readers would agree.

The argument would keep stepping through common knowledge, with the Sun orbiting in the Milky Way galaxy and that galaxy itself had its own orbit in a huge galactic cluster. At every step the reader would be nodding until eventually the article would get beyond the scope of a typical layman. At that point, when he was conditioned to keep nodding, they would come out with a total non sequitur like "Therefore, Jesus Christ is our personal saviour!"

Now, for a kid really interested in science it wasn't hard to figure out their trick but sadly, for many people the trick works just Jim Dandy! Hitting people with so much simple stuff that they agree with establishes a pattern of agreement. When it goes above their knowledge if you've captured their confidence they will keep nodding.

What I read at the Horizon Project site reminded me of those magazines.

Edited January 13, 2009 by Wild Bill

[Topaz]

Oh man! Not another "this guy said"ype of post.

Anyway, back to topic. We've known for quite some time now that the Earths poles change about every 100,000 years, nothing new there. The Apocalypse aspect is new though. All previous research that I've read on this subject has no mention of such catastrophies, in fact it all pretty well states that the shift would be unoticeable apart from navigation issues.

It would help if just once you could tell us who these guys are.

Sorry I had forgotten his name and had to go look it up. Brent Miller and he works for the Horizon Project, were researchers and scientists are studying the earth.

[kimmy]

Unless clarified, the claim that "the equator will move north" is absurd on the face of it. What does that even mean?

I believe it's known that the historical changes in the magnetic poles took place gradually over centuries. The belief that something will suddenly happen in 2012 just doesn't fit with anything we know about changes that have taken place in the earth's history. Short of a big external force (massive asteroid? Atlas shrugs and tilts the earth on its axis?) that's just nonsense.

It sounds as if somebody is trying to cash in on the latest "doomsday" prediction. I know somebody said the world is ending in 2012; I can't recall if it was Nostradamus or the ancient Mayans.

-k

[Riverwind]

Unless clarified, the claim that "the equator will move north" is absurd on the face of it. What does that even mean?

The earth's axis is tilted - that is why we have seasons. The exact tilt changes over time and there is some evidence that the change can suddenly. If it did it would create a lot of havoc. I suspect they mean the tilt is going decrease suddenly.

That said, I have been reading "the earth's axis is going to tilt" predictions for 30 years. The only thing that changes is the date.

Edited January 17, 2009 by Riverwind

[AngusThermopyle]

When speaking of such changes "suddenly" is usually measured in thousands of years.

[Wilber]

The tilt of the earths axis varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees over a period of 42,000 years. What's that .000057 degrees per year? It is apparently decreasing at the moment. If it went to zero, wherever you lived in the world it would be perpetually spring or fall depending on whether you are a glass half full or empty type. There's an idiot website out there claiming it just changed 26 degrees. And they're the only ones who noticed? Right. The magnetic poles are in constant motion and reverse every so often. I remember when the magnetic north pole was around Prince of Wales Island but apparently it is now heading for Siberia at a rate of up to 40 KM per year. This could make for some interesting phenomena when it comes to things like radio reception and the Aurora Borealis. Northern Lights in Florida maybe? Now that GPS is in almost universal use it shouldn't effect navigation nearly as much as it would have a few decades ago. Maybe we will get to find out if birds and other animals really do use the magnetic field to navigate during their migrations.

[Ontario Loyalist]

Does this mean that Alberta will shift below the 49th?!?!?!?!

[Wild Bill]

Does this mean that Alberta will shift below the 49th?!?!?!?!

They might if they get out and push!

Wouldn't blame them, either.

[Ontario Loyalist]

They might if they get out and push!

Wouldn't blame them, either.

Oh, that I'd be glad to do...

[kimmy]

The earth's axis is tilted - that is why we have seasons. The exact tilt changes over time and there is some evidence that the change can suddenly. If it did it would create a lot of havoc. I suspect they mean the tilt is going decrease suddenly.

That said, I have been reading "the earth's axis is going to tilt" predictions for 30 years. The only thing that changes is the date.

Didn't everybody here get a chance to do the "bicycle wheel experiment" in grade 10 physics?

Take a bicycle wheel, and hold it with one hand on each end of the axle. Use your thumbs to spin the wheel up to a respectable speed. Then try to tilt the wheel suddenly. Wow! It's really hard! Newton's law about stuff staying in motion, applied in a rotational sense, means that you have to apply an awful lot of force to change the axis of rotation.

The earth's axis can't change suddenly. Not that suddenly. Not without God himself grabbing the axle and turning the bicycle wheel.

Does this mean that Alberta will shift below the 49th?!?!?!?!

And maybe Toronto will finally become the big American city it's always dreamed of being.

-k

[Wilber]

Didn't everybody here get a chance to do the "bicycle wheel experiment" in grade 10 physics?

Take a bicycle wheel, and hold it with one hand on each end of the axle. Use your thumbs to spin the wheel up to a respectable speed. Then try to tilt the wheel suddenly. Wow! It's really hard! Newton's law about stuff staying in motion, applied in a rotational sense, means that you have to apply an awful lot of force to change the axis of rotation.

The earth's axis can't change suddenly. Not that suddenly. Not without God himself grabbing the axle and turning the bicycle wheel.

And maybe Toronto will finally become the big American city it's always dreamed of being.

-k

When you pushed on that bicycle wheel did you notice that it tried to move in a direction 90 degrees in advance of the direction you pushed on it?

[kimmy]

When you pushed on that bicycle wheel did you notice that it tried to move in a direction 90 degrees in advance of the direction you pushed on it?

Not specifically, though I recall it bucked unpredictably if it was twisted hard enough. However, I recall it preferring to stay rotating on the same plane, just like gyroscopes, tops, and those wrist-exercise ball thingies.

I'm just asking, what giant wrist is going to turn the giant wrist-exercise ball thingie which is our earth?

-k

Edited January 19, 2009 by kimmy

[Wild Bill]

Not specifically, though I recall it bucked unpredictably if it was twisted hard enough. However, I recall it preferring to stay rotating on the same plane, just like gyroscopes, tops, and those wrist-exercise ball thingies.

I'm just asking, what giant wrist is going to turn the giant wrist-exercise ball thingie which is our earth?

-k

Kimmy, you're confusing the issue with facts!

The type of people who believe this stuff are not the kind of people who like to acquire any scientific education. They don't feel they need one! Science is hard for them and it is much easier to accept it as all 'magic'.

Then all you have to do is find a magician who impresses you! He'll then do your thinking FOR you!

You can't change their mind with scientific facts. They don't understand them and they don't feel the need to understand them. They have their FAITH, and for them that's enough!

[Riverwind]

I'm just asking, what giant wrist is going to turn the giant wrist-exercise ball thingie which is our earth?

The earth is not a ridgid body and has a lot of mass sitting on the surface that could shift quite suddenly. The earthquake in indonesia was large enough to:

NASA scientists using data from the Indonesian earthquake calculated it affected Earth's rotation, decreased the length of day, slightly changed the planet's shape, and shifted the North Pole by centimeters. The earthquake that created the huge tsunami also changed the Earth's rotation.

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2005/jan/H...earthquake.html

There are few supervolcanos like Yellowstone which are due to blow any minute now (+/-50000 years):

http://www.earthmountainview.com/yellowstone/yellowstone.htm

So the idea of a sudden shift in the earth axis is not completely implausible even if it is unlikely. What is implausible is the idea that anyone would have advance knowledge that such an event was going to occur.

Edited January 19, 2009 by Riverwind

[kimmy]

The earth is not a ridgid body and has a lot of mass sitting on the surface that could shift quite suddenly. The earthquake in indonesia was large enough to:

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2005/jan/H...earthquake.html

There are few supervolcanos like Yellowstone which are due to blow any minute now (+/-50000 years):

http://www.earthmountainview.com/yellowstone/yellowstone.htm

So the idea of a sudden shift in the earth axis is not completely implausible even if it is unlikely. What is implausible is the idea that anyone would have advance knowledge that such an event was going to occur.

If an earthquake powerful enough to move the earth's axis by centimeters caused the Indonesian tsunami...

If some event powerful enough to change the earth's axis enough to melt the polar ice caps occurs, how likely is it that anybody will be left to worry about climate change?

-k

[Wilber]

Not specifically, though I recall it bucked unpredictably if it was twisted hard enough. However, I recall it preferring to stay rotating on the same plane, just like gyroscopes, tops, and those wrist-exercise ball thingies.

I'm just asking, what giant wrist is going to turn the giant wrist-exercise ball thingie which is our earth?

-k

The reason it bucked was because you were twisting it one way and it wanted to move in a direction that was 90 degrees to the way you were twisting. It was predictable. It's called gyroscopic precession and is the principle behind the operation of a helicopter. Sikorsky was a genius to make it work in the way he did IMO.

The giant wrist could be something like the impact of another celestial body or the gravity of a close encounter with one that was large enough. Maybe there are geological influences within the earth that could change its balance enough to upset its rotation but like Riverwind says, for something to do that over the short term it would have to be so cataclysmic there wouldn't likely be anyone left to notice the axis had shifted. Otherwise as Newton said, A body continues to maintain its state of rest or of uniform motion unless acted upon by an external unbalanced force. Or something like that.

It's funny, the earth has been around for billions of years, why do todays humans figure all this is bad stuff is going to happen in the nanosecond we happen to be here? We really have made ourselves the centers of our own universe. So often it bares no relationship to the real one.

[OddSox]

2012 eh? I'm surprised no one has mentioned the Mayans yet.