Cpc Predictions

[maplesyrup]

we can discuss results tomorrow.

HARPER WILL COME FIRST ON FIRST COUNT BUT NOT 50%

NO ROOM TO GROW

BELINDA TAKES IT ON SECOND COUNT

[maplesyrup]

The start time for voting is 10 AM (ET). Thanks for the heads up.

Maybe it's the CBC TV coverage that will start about 2:30 PM (ET).

[August1991]

Voting starts at 10 am in Montreal. (That's EST, no?)

There's an 80% chance Harper wins on the first ballot. If he doesn't make 50%, then Clement falls out and his second choices are counted. No doubt there, Harper wins.

Key question? How will the CBC report Harper's win?

[sir_springer]

Assuming this goes by new boundaries...

For Stephen Harper:

BC: 3600 pts x 85% = 3060

AB: 2800 pts x 85% = 2380

SK: 1400 pts x 70% = 980

MB: 1400 pts x 65% = 910

ON: 10600 pts x 60% = 6360

QU: 7500 pts x 40% = 3000

NL: 700 pts x 40% = 280

PEI: 400 pts x 20% = 80

NS: 1100 pts x 30% = 330

NB: 1000 pts x 40% = 400

NWT: 300 pts x 50% = 150

TOTAL: (30800 x 50% = 15400 + 1) 17930

Base assumptions:

1) CA members are more certain to vote.

2) Low turnout of new members signed by Stronach.

3) Half of the 252,000 members are Reform/CA. (Compas poll results)

4) Ontario members at least 60% CA.

5) CA members will overwhelming support Harper, and in every province.

6) Stronach support in Quebec is overestimated, and poor turnout for her.

Bottom line:

Harper on the first ballot, over 17,000 pts.

[August1991]

ON: 10600 pts x 60% = 6360

QU: 7500 pts x 40% = 3000

You sure? That's 9360. More than half of what's required. I'd put it at 50% and 30%.

But I repeat: Watch how the CBC reports this. It won't be Layton winning the NDP, it'll be, well, Harper winning the Conservatives.

[sir_springer]

Harper's support in both Ontario and Quebec will shock everyone.

[August1991]

Harper's support in both Ontario and Quebec will shock everyone.

It will the shock the CBC.

From Quebec? The story will be that Stronach tried to buy votes but she didn't succeed because well, she didn't understand Quebec.

Then, the story will be: We're Canadian, not American, and we don't sell votes well. But, you know what, that's what Tories try and do: Buy and Sell Votes. But the Tories are bad at doing this and that's why Harper won.

Harper wants a dog-eat-dog world, and now that he won so easily, he wants to impose it on the rest of us.

IOW, no logic at all.

[sir_springer]

Why do you presume that a country that is not a welfare nanny-state in which people/regions line up for their turn at the government teat like trained puppies...

Ipso facto then must be a dog-eat-dog world?

It is possible to be a caring, nurturing nation without having to lead people around by a ring in their noses, or putting three feet of padding under every single ass in case they stumble.

Time for some of the people in this country to grow up a tad, and lift themselves off their mommy's laps for a change.

[MapleLeafMerc]

we can discuss results tomorrow.

HARPER WILL COME FIRST ON FIRST COUNT BUT NOT 505{

BELINDA TAKES IT ON SECOND COUNT 

Ah, excuse me, maple syrup. The voting starts at 10 am EST. Did you have a dream that it started at 2:30 PM?

I will look forward to your comments tomorrow as a condemned man would the noose.

[August1991]

Ipso facto then must be a dog-eat-dog world?

I'm just presenting a possible CBC scenario to the story tomorrow.

When Harper wins, the CBC will be smug and sanctimonious about his victory. The CBC was not smug and sanctimonious when Layton won.

We all pay involuntary taxes to hear this.

Putin got re-elected by similar methods.

[maplesyrup]

QUOTE]

Putin got re-elected by similar methods.

I didn't realise that Russia has one public TV network and many private TV networks.

[maplesyrup]

Good luck to everyone in their choice of candidate.

Don't forget to vote, and vote often.

Have a great day!