jdobbin Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 lol.....they got unseated because nobody can trust them........they are a bunch of crooks...............you will never see the Liberals in power again.......like i said i have seen several talk shows most experts think it is the end for the Liberal party. Thought so myself but then I should have counted on the fact that Conservatives tend to screw things up and help the fortunes of the Liberals. Quote
Mr.Canada Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 Thought so myself but then I should have counted on the fact that Conservatives tend to screw things up and help the fortunes of the Liberals. Oh be fair jdobbin. Every government on the planet makes mistakes. Everybody who works directly in the public eye is under a microscope. Mistakes by all sides are often blown way out of proportion. Quote "You are scum for insinuating that isn't the case you snake." -William Ashley Canadian Immigration Reform Blog
jdobbin Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 Oh be fair jdobbin. Every government on the planet makes mistakes. Everybody who works directly in the public eye is under a microscope. Mistakes by all sides are often blown way out of proportion. Don't deny that this is true. Unfortunately for the Tories, their screw ups benefit the Liberals more often than not. They have their heel on the throat on the the party now but their own fixed election date acts as a stopper from crushing the life out of the party, as you say. Quote
Wild Bill Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 I suspect you're right. The best indicator that the Liberals will return is that the Conservatives have made no meaningful gains in the popular vote. If you look at the numbers in the last five elections, there's no evidence whatsoever that Canadians have suddenly, or even gradually, become right wingers. The right wing vote has been remarkably consistent despite the braying of Conservatives on this board. The problem for the Liberals is that some Liberal voters have moved left. Here are some numbers:2008 election Conservative votes =5,205,334 % of votes=37.6% 2006 election Conservative votes =5,374,071 % of votes=36.3% 2004 election Conservative votes =3,994,682 % of votes=29.6% 2000 election Alliance and PCs combined =4,843,927 % of votes=37.7% 1997 election Reform and PCs combined =4,959,785 % of votes=38.2% The only Conservative to win a majority in half a century was Brian Mulroney who, unlike Stephen Harper, was (1) not a social conservative and (2) had values consistent with those of most Quebecers. As long as Harper supporters continue to insist that he's not a social conservative, they're doomed to minority status. Meanwhile, the Liberals will surge again under a new leader. As a matter of interest, how much of an increase was there in the LIBERAL popular vote? Quote "A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul." -- George Bernard Shaw "There is no point in being difficult when, with a little extra effort, you can be completely impossible."
drewski Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 I suspect you're right. The best indicator that the Liberals will return is that the Conservatives have made no meaningful gains in the popular vote. If you look at the numbers in the last five elections, there's no evidence whatsoever that Canadians have suddenly, or even gradually, become right wingers. The right wing vote has been remarkably consistent despite the braying of Conservatives on this board. The problem for the Liberals is that some Liberal voters have moved left. Here are some numbers:2008 election Conservative votes =5,205,334 % of votes=37.6% 2006 election Conservative votes =5,374,071 % of votes=36.3% 2004 election Conservative votes =3,994,682 % of votes=29.6% 2000 election Alliance and PCs combined =4,843,927 % of votes=37.7% 1997 election Reform and PCs combined =4,959,785 % of votes=38.2% The only Conservative to win a majority in half a century was Brian Mulroney who, unlike Stephen Harper, was (1) not a social conservative and (2) had values consistent with those of most Quebecers. As long as Harper supporters continue to insist that he's not a social conservative, they're doomed to minority status. Meanwhile, the Liberals will surge again under a new leader. as I said in the other thread, I don't believe you're are taking into account the people who more and more aren't voting. People I believe to be centrist voters who don't' like what the Liberals have done and for any number of reasons don't want to vote for Harper. Looking at this years vote, the Liberals lost 650k more votes then the Greens & NDP (combined) gained (the Cons lost ~170k). That shows me that the support isn't necessarily shifting to the NDP & Greens as much as the centrist supporters (for the Libs & Cons) just aren't showing up to vote. Also, in the 2006 vote, where the Liberals lost their position as government, the Conservatives gained 2.5x as many votes as the combined Greens & NDP did. Some of which was lost again this year to non-voters I think this shows that while political beliefs aren't shifting, the apathy of certain groups, ie centrists is just growing. Moving closer to that centre will hopefully gain back a number of those votes, which I believe is far greater then the votes which could be gained by moving left. Quote If you oppose Bill 117, the governments ban on child passengers on motorcycles, join this FB group http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=52185692512 Support Dominic LeBlanc for Liberal Party Leader http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=32208708169
drewski Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 As a matter of interest, how much of an increase was there in the LIBERAL popular vote? 2008 election Conservative votes =5,205,334 % of votes=37.6% Liberal Votes 3,629,990 % of votes=26.23% NDP & Green Votes 3,457,822 % of votes=25.0% 2006 election Conservative votes =5,374,071 % of votes=36.3% Liberal Votes 4,479,415 % of votes=30.23% NDP & Green Votes 3,253,665 % of votes=22.0% 2004 election Conservative votes =3,994,682 % of votes=29.6% Liberal Votes 4,951,107 % of votes=36.70% NDP & Green Votes 2,698,783 % of votes=20.0% 2000 election Alliance and PCs combined =4,843,927 % of votes=37.7% Liberal Votes 5,252,031 % of votes=40.85% NDP & Green Votes 1,198,270 % of votes=9.3% 1997 election Reform and PCs combined =4,959,785 % of votes=38.2% Liberal Votes 4,994,277 % of votes=38.46% NDP & Green Votes 1,490,092 % of votes=11.5% Quote If you oppose Bill 117, the governments ban on child passengers on motorcycles, join this FB group http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=52185692512 Support Dominic LeBlanc for Liberal Party Leader http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=32208708169
drewski Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 and these are the changes from previous year, including total voter turnout 2008 election Conservative votes change -168,737 Popular Vote Change 1.37% Liberal Votes change -849,425 Popular Vote Change -4.00% NDP & Green Votes change 204,157 Popular Vote Change 3.12% Change in Voter Turnout -987,641 2006 election Conservative votes change 1,379,389 Popular Vote Change 6.67% Liberal Votes change -471,692 Popular Vote Change -6.50% NDP & Green Votes change 554,882 Popular Vote Change 1.95% Change in Voter Turnout 1,342,906 2004 election Conservative votes change -849,245 Popular Vote Change -8.08% Liberal Votes change -300,924 Popular Vote Change -3.20% NDP & Green Votes change 1,500,513 Popular Vote Change 10.71% Change in Voter Turnout 645,491 2000 election Conservative votes change -115,858 Popular Vote Change -0.52% Liberal Votes change 257,754 Popular Vote Change 2.39% NDP & Green Votes change -291,822 Popular Vote Change -2.16% Change in Voter Turnout -158,020 1997 election Conservative votes change 214,118 Popular Vote Change 3.46% Liberal Votes change -653,675 Popular Vote Change -2.78% NDP & Green Votes change 550,517 Popular Vote Change 4.36% Change in Voter Turnout -349,243 Quote If you oppose Bill 117, the governments ban on child passengers on motorcycles, join this FB group http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=52185692512 Support Dominic LeBlanc for Liberal Party Leader http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=32208708169
Wild Bill Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 and these are the changes from previous year, including total voter turnout2008 election Conservative votes change -168,737 Popular Vote Change 1.37% Liberal Votes change -849,425 Popular Vote Change -4.00% NDP & Green Votes change 204,157 Popular Vote Change 3.12% Change in Voter Turnout -987,641 2006 election Conservative votes change 1,379,389 Popular Vote Change 6.67% Liberal Votes change -471,692 Popular Vote Change -6.50% NDP & Green Votes change 554,882 Popular Vote Change 1.95% Change in Voter Turnout 1,342,906 2004 election Conservative votes change -849,245 Popular Vote Change -8.08% Liberal Votes change -300,924 Popular Vote Change -3.20% NDP & Green Votes change 1,500,513 Popular Vote Change 10.71% Change in Voter Turnout 645,491 2000 election Conservative votes change -115,858 Popular Vote Change -0.52% Liberal Votes change 257,754 Popular Vote Change 2.39% NDP & Green Votes change -291,822 Popular Vote Change -2.16% Change in Voter Turnout -158,020 1997 election Conservative votes change 214,118 Popular Vote Change 3.46% Liberal Votes change -653,675 Popular Vote Change -2.78% NDP & Green Votes change 550,517 Popular Vote Change 4.36% Change in Voter Turnout -349,243 Thank you! Now, I wonder if M Normanchateau would apply his own argument equally to the Liberals as he did with the CPC... Quote "A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul." -- George Bernard Shaw "There is no point in being difficult when, with a little extra effort, you can be completely impossible."
Mr.Canada Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 as I said in the other thread, I don't believe you're are taking into account the people who more and more aren't voting. People I believe to be centrist voters who don't' like what the Liberals have done and for any number of reasons don't want to vote for Harper.Looking at this years vote, the Liberals lost 650k more votes then the Greens & NDP (combined) gained (the Cons lost ~170k). That shows me that the support isn't necessarily shifting to the NDP & Greens as much as the centrist supporters (for the Libs & Cons) just aren't showing up to vote. Also, in the 2006 vote, where the Liberals lost their position as government, the Conservatives gained 2.5x as many votes as the combined Greens & NDP did. Some of which was lost again this year to non-voters I think this shows that while political beliefs aren't shifting, the apathy of certain groups, ie centrists is just growing. Moving closer to that centre will hopefully gain back a number of those votes, which I believe is far greater then the votes which could be gained by moving left. People that don't vote, don't count and therefore don't matter. You cannot possibly claim to be able to speak intelligently on the voting habits of people that haven't cast votes. Which equates about 10 million people or so. Your point is completely irrelevant. Quote "You are scum for insinuating that isn't the case you snake." -William Ashley Canadian Immigration Reform Blog
drewski Posted October 23, 2008 Report Posted October 23, 2008 People that don't vote, don't count and therefore don't matter. You cannot possibly claim to be able to speak intelligently on the voting habits of people that haven't cast votes. Which equates about 10 million people or so.Your point is completely irrelevant. some of those people who didn't vote had voted in the past and may vote again. If they do, they will matter and we need to take their possible actions into account. To take the mathematical projections as gospel would be wrong, but they should be considered. To simply ignore them and to base decisions on those who have voted in the past would be folly. Quote If you oppose Bill 117, the governments ban on child passengers on motorcycles, join this FB group http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=52185692512 Support Dominic LeBlanc for Liberal Party Leader http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=32208708169
betsy Posted October 23, 2008 Author Report Posted October 23, 2008 Mike Duffy is rather an embarrassment for Canadian journalism.He's a Conservative party hack and has been for decades. Nothing wrong with that, but to pretend that he's a journalist is insulting to real journalists. But he managed to have a scoop on Ray Heard saying this in his show, didn't he? Anyway, my point is not Mike Duffy. It's the Liberal Party! Quote
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