Harper Wins Most Seats - Dion Becomes PM

[August1991]

I was in the Maritimes on the weekend and one scenario seriously mooted was Harper winning tonight but then being defeated very soon after the House reconvenes.

No one wants another election so the GG would have to turn to Dion to form a government. I think Dion could do it by finding common ground with the NDP and/or Bloc.

The election has shown a sharp divide between Harper's Conservatives and everyone else. How can Harper make a credible minority government now?

I think this exact scenario played out in Ontario in the 1980s when the Liberals under David Peterson won fewer seats than the Conservatives but Peterson ultimately formed a successful minority government withs upport from the NDP (under Bob Rae).

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I give the Tories about 135 seats tonight with about 5-6 from Quebec.

Harper may be able to rely on the support of the Bloc to stay in power but that will cause tensions in Harper's (essentially English) caucus. At any moment, the Bloc can threaten to topple the government.

I don't give a long survival time to a minority Harper government.

[Riverwind]

I think this exact scenario played out in Ontario in the 1980s when the Liberals under David Peterson won fewer seats than the Conservatives but Peterson ultimately formed a successful minority government withs upport from the NDP (under Bob Rae).

Sounds like a losing scenario for the Liberals because it would give NDP voters an excuse to keep voting NDP instead of Liberal. To make matters worse such a coalition would alienate "red tory" voters that would consider voting Liberal given the right circumstances.

I don't give a long survival time to a minority Harper government.

It really depends on the seat count. If he needs the support of 2 parties to pass anything we will be headng back to polls soon but if he only needs one party's support it could last because the political interests of all 3 parties do not always align.

[Mr.Canada]

LIberals + NDP will only be about 110 seats not enough to form a coalition.

[August1991]

LIberals + NDP will only be about 110 seats not enough to form a coalition.

It wouldn't be a formal coalition.

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Anyway, it looks like the Tories are going to get their majority (barely) largely because of Ontario.

The real story here is that the Bloc will do well in Quebec.

[kengs333]

A coalition is unlikely. Both Duceppe and Layton have much to lose by joining in a formal alliance with the Liberals, and the Liberals themselves would probably suffer as a result. The Liberals need to rebuild, get a new leader, and then start preparing for 2010 or 2011.

[TCCK]

The Liberals, BQ and NDP would ALL have to agreet o be a coalition to be the ruling party.

AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!!!