IMF Counters Dion's Claims

[Jobu]

So I guess Harper must be doing something right?

~~~~~~~~~~~~

TORONTO - Despite the unprecedented volatility that has left stock markets reeling in recent days, data continue to show that the underlying fundamentals of the Canadian economy are strong, economists say.

Housing numbers released Wednesday suggest the sector is still relatively robust and a report from the International Monetary Fund says Canada will lead the G7 in growth next year.

See http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/10/08/imf.html for a full story.

~~~~~~~~~~~~

GDP Growth:

Country.....2008.....2009

Canada.....0.7.....1.2

USA.....1.6.....0.1

France.....0.8.....0.2

Germany.....1.8.....0.0

UK.....1.0.....-0.1

Japan.....0.7.....0.5

Unemployment:

Country.....2008.....2009

Canada.....6.2.....6.3

USA.....5.6.....6.9

France.....7.7.....8.3

Germany.....7.4.....8.0

UK.....5.4.....6.0

Japan.....4.1.....4.5

Edited October 8, 2008 by Jobu

[noahbody]

DON'T BELIEVE THIS MAN!

[Hcheh]

only speculations..

[jdobbin]

TORONTO - Despite the unprecedented volatility that has left stock markets reeling in recent days, data continue to show that the underlying fundamentals of the Canadian economy are strong, economists say.

Housing numbers released Wednesday suggest the sector is still relatively robust and a report from the International Monetary Fund says Canada will lead the G7 in growth next year.

Oil money continuing to help Canada grow, sucky time for manufacturing.

[Jobu]

only speculations..

Sort of like Dion and Layton's speculations (hopes?) for a recession and that somehow higher taxes will help?

[Jobu]

Oil money continuing to help Canada grow, sucky time for manufacturing.

So... having the supposed worst GDP is a bad thing, but now that it's projected to be the best, more excuses?

[jdobbin]

So... having the supposed worst GDP is a bad thing, but now that it's projected to be the best, more excuses?

Which report do you want to pick your numbers from? The IMF or Royal Bank? They both listed their forecast today. Who do you think is more accurate?

[Jobu]

Which report do you want to pick your numbers from? The IMF or Royal Bank? They both listed their forecast today. Who do you think is more accurate?

How about you answer the question first?

As for which report, whatever you like. RBC's is even more bullish than the IMF's, forecasting 1.5% GDP growth for Canada in 2009.

So... what's your point here?

[AngusThermopyle]

Which report do you want to pick your numbers from? The IMF or Royal Bank? They both listed their forecast today. Who do you think is more accurate?

Personally I tend to favor those little bits of paper you find in fortune cookies.

[jdobbin]

How about you answer the question first?

As for which report, whatever you like. RBC's is even more bullish than the IMF's, forecasting 1.5% GDP growth for Canada in 2009.

So... what's your point here?

The full report from RBC was a drop to 0.9% and a modest rebound, primarily in resources.

You think that anemic growth is something to boast about?

[Jobu]

Personally I tend to favor those little bits of paper you find in fortune cookies.

Ahh, right. I get it now. So now forecasts are totally useless and baseless. I suppose we should do away with them all.

One question though. Why are we supposed to believe Dion's revenue neutral promise on the Greem Shift? Or the figures he uses to proclaim that he won't run into deficit? Why does any party cost their platform?

Typical of Liberals. Speak out of the left side of the mouth in one case, and the right in another.

[Jobu]

The full report from RBC was a drop to 0.9% and a modest rebound, primarily in resources.

You think that anemic growth is something to boast about?

Certainly quite competitive when you look around to the rest of the world, isn't it? Your man Dion's been trying to tell us we're in recession and in relative freefall, isn't he?

Let's look at the 2008 figures again, shall we?

Country.....2008

Canada.....0.7

USA.....1.6

France.....0.8

Germany.....1.8

UK.....1.0

Japan.....0.7

Not so bad I'd say, given that we're suffering nothing like the crisis being felt in the U.S. or Europe.

As for 2009, from the same report of which you speak:

"In an economic outlook report published today, RBC revised its outlook for Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2008 to 0.9% from 1.4% and said it expects growth to rebound slightly in 2009 to 1.5%."

[jdobbin]

Personally I tend to favor those little bits of paper you find in fortune cookies.

I have a list of some thirty GDP estimates. They have all been revised based on the crisis. Panic selling took place in Japan and Europe overnight. Banks were partially nationalized in Britain. A concerted world effort to drop interest rates still sent the U.S. market down. As some economists said there is no Plan B. This is the whole game. Hundreds of billions, perhaps a few trillion are going to be poured into the market to salvage something.

People are sitting on their cash. If they have cash.

Some Tories are grasping at the IMF numbers like a lifesaver. Even the IMF says it is going to be painful. And they say the situation may need to be revised again given the fluid world situation.

[jdobbin]

Certainly quite competitive when you look around to the rest of the world, isn't it? Your man Dion's been trying to tell us we're in recession and in relative freefall, isn't he?

What quotes are you citing from Dion again?

The estimates on growth have been continually revised downward. Tory spending and wrongheaded GST cuts have made Canada less competitive.

[OddSox]

What quotes are you citing from Dion again?

The estimates on growth have been continually revised downward. Tory spending and wrongheaded GST cuts have made Canada less competitive.

Less competitive? Compared to who? (Are you purposely being obtuse, or do you just not get it?)

[Argus]

The full report from RBC was a drop to 0.9% and a modest rebound, primarily in resources.

You think that anemic growth is something to boast about?

What the Royal Bank said was that it forecasted growth as being greater than the government's own forecast. In other words, it thinks the Tories were being too pessimistic about the state of our economy.

But I can see why you Liberals don't want to accept that. You're all trying to do your best to scare people on the economy, no matter what the damage that actually does to our financial systems, in a cynical attempt to get elected.

Royal Bank forecasts higher growth

Royal Bank Optimistic about Economy

[Argus]

I have a list of some thirty GDP estimates. They have all been revised based on the crisis. Panic selling took place in Japan and Europe overnight.

Yes, that's just what it was; panic. It's not based on any real, logical economic estimates. It's based on irrational fear. That's why the Liberal party's efforts at scaring Canadians into panicking are so dangerous.

But you don't really care, do you? It's a risk you're willing to take if it gets you more votes.

[Slim MacSquinty]

Scotia banks analysis:

" Scotia Economics recently wrote a report comparing our mortgage market to that of the United States. Scotia listed many important distinctions including:

Key differences in how Canada's securitization market works (it's less leveraged in Canada)

Canada's more conservative underwriting standards

Canadians' lower household debt-to-asset ratios

Each of these things, along with other items in Scotia's list, have fortunately served to keep some of the froth off of Canada's real estate market. That doesn't mean Canadian home prices won't continue to fall. It just means we probably won't see the devastation witnessed below the border."

accoring to Canadian Mortgare trend magazine (sept 15th):

"As for AIG United Guaranty Canada, AIG's Canadian mortgage default insurance subsidiary, there's been no word on how its parent's U.S. challenges will affect it. A company spokesman we talked to this morning had no knowledge of any impending impact.

For the moment, there is little reason not to be optimistic. According to sources, AIG's Canadian business is profitable and it's got a 90% credit guaranty from the federal government. Moreover, it operates in a Canadian mortgage market that's on very solid ground with reasonable lending standards and miniscule default ratios.

We'll keep an eye on things and report back if we hear anything further."

Go to the link regarding Scotia bank report: http://www.604homes.com/blogs/matthew_collinge/default.aspx

This is widely distributed information available to anyone who has the capacity to google "mortgage default" and should be known to anyone who has any economic or business training, I would expect to find any of the above in the NDP but what about the Liberals?

[jdobbin]

Less competitive? Compared to who? (Are you purposely being obtuse, or do you just not get it?)

OECD said less competitive. Did you get that?

[OddSox]

OECD said less competitive. Did you get that?

Actually, I see nothing in this thread about the OECD. Regardless, did they say 'less competitive' in comparison to? It seems the IMF, RBC, Scotiabank etc. all say that we are more than competitive when compared to the rest of the G7...

[jdobbin]

What the Royal Bank said was that it forecasted growth as being greater than the government's own forecast. In other words, it thinks the Tories were being too pessimistic about the state of our economy.

And I said, they downgraded their forecast for the short term and indicated they think resources will kick in the next half. It is about the third downgrade RBC has done downward this year.

No matter how you slice it, it is anemic growth.

But I can see why you Liberals don't want to accept that. You're all trying to do your best to scare people on the economy, no matter what the damage that actually does to our financial systems, in a cynical attempt to get elected.

And Tories don't do cynical things to get elected? How about cynical promises to never, ever touch income trusts?

Tories are embracing these reports as somehow endorsing Harper. They don't. They say hard times are ahead.

[jdobbin]

Actually, I see nothing in this thread about the OECD. Regardless, did they say 'less competitive' in comparison to? It seems the IMF, RBC, Scotiabank etc. all say that we are more than competitive when compared to the rest of the G7...

The OECD predicted deficits for 2009 and 2010 in Canada and indicated that the GST cut was a less competitive way for Canada to drive its economy.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/reality...near_futur.html

As well, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, in a report, said Canada is projected to show small deficits for 2008 and 2009 and "governments will have to stick to their spending plans closely to avoid dipping into the red on a more sustained basis than projected."

http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2...1_1_1_1,00.html

It would also help to shift the tax mix toward more user fees and indirect taxes – including VAT, environmental levies and property taxes – which do not distort inter-temporal economic choices as income taxes do. Lower corporate and personal income taxes could improve the incentives for capital formation, FDI, innovation, entrepreneurship, labour force participation, work effort, and the pursuit of higher education. The result would be higher standards of living.

Canada has moved in the opposite direction of other nations with its foolish GST cut.

Edited October 8, 2008 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Yes, that's just what it was; panic. It's not based on any real, logical economic estimates. It's based on irrational fear. That's why the Liberal party's efforts at scaring Canadians into panicking are so dangerous.

It was Harper who said that the worst was over three weeks ago. He apparently doesn't know from a hole in the ground.

But you don't really care, do you? It's a risk you're willing to take if it gets you more votes.

You don't care that Harper doesn't know where he is going or what is about what will happen. Your hatred of the Liberals means you will vote for Harper even as he continues to make cynical sales tax cuts.

[jdobbin]

This is widely distributed information available to anyone who has the capacity to google "mortgage default" and should be known to anyone who has any economic or business training, I would expect to find any of the above in the NDP but what about the Liberals?

And Harper said the worst was over three weeks ago. Doesn't look like he got that right.

[Slim MacSquinty]

First off that is not what he said, three weeks ago here is an actual quote (sept 15th):

"Mr. Harper said the Canadian economy is not great, but fine.

“My anticipation is this will last for some period of time, probably for another year,” he said. “But I do want to point out the fundamentals of the Canadian economy, as opposed to other economies. Yes, we have seen a slowdown in Canada, but we have certainly not seen a recession.”

He said incomes and employment remain healthy, inflation is “quite contained” compared to most Western countries, and Canadian banks are not teetering on the brink.

“I think we'll come out of this in quite good shape. But it's not the time to do anything new, wild or stupid,” he said."

Heres another (Sept 16th):

"At the moment there are problems in the Canadian economy, but we aren't in a recession," Harper told reporters during a campaign stop in Kitchener, Ont., where he promised a tax credit of up to $5,000 for first-time homebuyers.

"We have a slowdown economically, but personal income growth continues. There are jobs, but there are job losses, but more gains.

"The reality is that we are managing the economy and are living through this period of time, and we are managing it much better than any other industrialized country."

Here is another quote from Sept. 30: (not harper):

"Don Drummond, TD Bank's chief economist, said planning for larger surpluses won't avert a recession, because it's just a tightening that will be counterproductive. Spending to stimulate the economy hasn't worked recently in Canada, either, he said.

In fact, while the Bank of Canada might be able to help the economy, Mr. Drummond argued that there's little the politicians can do, and he wonders how they'll fill the extra time allotted to the economy in the leaders debates tonight and tomorrow."

March 7th 2008 quote from harper:

"We have been heading into a period of economic uncertainty and slower growth. Its happened before, and it will happen again.

But the fork in the road is whether, under these circumstances, we will make choices that exacerbate the problem for the sake of the short term or whether we will make choices that allow us to exploit the potential in our future."

January 2008:

"We are aware of these challenges. We have acted and we will continue to act for regions and sectors that are in difficulty, like manufacturing, forestry, fishing and tourism. We will also continue to take measures to strengthen agriculture."

It appears in his own words he has not had his head in the sand, I am not able to find similar quotes for Dion or Layton reckonizing recent events before they happened.