When Will Liberal Party Cut Martin Loose?

maplesyrup · February 17, 2004

Is Stephen Owen distancing himself from Paul Martin?

Liberals slip badly in polls

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/...NStory/National

The Liberals, headed for an easy election win a week ago, have plummeted into minority-government territory in popular support as most Canadians want to hear the results of an inquiry into the sponsorship scandal before they vote, according to a poll.

The survey, done by Ipsos-Reid for The Globe and Mail and CTV, could throw cold water on plans for a spring ballot.

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It also shows that more Canadians blame former prime minister Jean Chrétien (29 per cent) for the scandal than the present prime minister, Paul Martin (22 per cent). In his first public comments on the week-old controversy yesterday, Mr. Chrétien refused to say whether he would appear before a newly called public inquiry, dismissing reporters' questions by stating that he is out of government.

“I don't think any more,” Mr. Chrétien said when asked about his thoughts on the scandal.

In the poll, 90 per cent said they would expect Mr. Chrétien to appear before the inquiry to “explain what he knows.” Mr. Martin has already offered to testify.

The new survey suggests that the Liberals' 11-year grip on power is in danger despite Mr. Martin's week-long public-relations push to contain the damage. The Liberals have fallen to 35 per cent in popular support, from 39 per cent last week and 48 per cent only four weeks ago.

“When you get down in the territory of 35 per cent, you don't win majorities. . . . I don't think there is anybody now who would be seriously advising [Mr. Martin] to go to the polls on this basis, unless he just wants to completely roll the dice,” Mr. Bricker said .

Last week's Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted from Tuesday, the day the auditor's report was released, through Thursday. The new poll of 1,055 Canadians was conducted from Wednesday through Sunday. On any given question, it has a 95-per-cent statistical likelihood of accuracy within a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, upward or downward. The poll also asked 737 people questions about their attitudes on the scandal. It is accurate to within 3.6 percentage points.

Two-thirds of respondents, however, said Mr. Martin had to know “something” or “a lot” about the scandal, including who was responsible for the mismanagement of public funds.

Sixty-five per cent indicated they want to find out “what happened in the sponsorship program” before an election is called, compared to 32 per cent who preferred an early vote.

Mr. Bricker said the message from Canadians is that if Mr. Martin calls an election for early May, as has been expected, it will look as though the Liberals “are trying to hide something.”

The public accounts committee of the House has started an investigation into the misuse of funds, and Mr. Martin has ordered a public inquiry to be headed by a judge. Both investigations will take months to reach any definitive conclusion.

It will be up to Mr. Martin to decide on the election date, but Public Works Minister Stephen Owen said that Canadians will have to start getting a sense of what happened before the next election.

“I'm sure [Mr. Martin] will take into very deep consideration the need of the public to know that these issues are being delved into as stringently as possible,” Mr. Owen said.

Mr. Martin toured Quebec yesterday in an attempt to demonstrate that the problem is not specific to the province, recalling corruption charges against the Grant Devine government in the 1980s in Saskatchewan.

Mr. Martin was responding to questions about Liberal MP Joe Comuzzi, the new minister of state for economic development in Northern Ontario, who has been quoted as saying the sponsorship scandal “is a Quebec issue and I guess that's how they do politics there.”

NDP leader Jack Layton said he's willing to form a minority government with the Liberals if the sponsorship scandal ends up denying the ruling party a majority of parliamentary seats in a spring election.

“If the poll lines keep going the way they are going — us up . . . and the Liberals down — then the probability of a minority government increases,” he said.

But Mr. Layton says a non-negotiable precondition of any coalition with the Liberals will be holding a national referendum on switching to a new method of electing MPs to Parliament. With reports from Rhéal Séguin, Steven Chase and Tu Thanh Ha

udawg · February 17, 2004

If a minority situation occurs, which IMO is not going to, but if it were, I actually could see an NDP-Liberal coalition. The Liberals have slid so far left in recent years, while the NDP have only very recently centralized a little more, that these parties may almost be considered one, even now.

Sheila Copps, former leader candidate for LPOC, now considering move to NDP... just one very good example of ideologies meeting. She was, of course, on the left end of the Liberals to start with, but still...

And of course the NDP would be much better to her than Martin's Liberals have been

Mr. Chater · February 17, 2004

hmmm, I myself have always been with the PC's or on this case the CPC's and I do wish to have a Tory Minority. I do not think that there will be a coalation between the two parties, they will stay apart BUT one of the two parties will get Minority and it is between Liberals and CPC. If liberals continue to drop even the slightest, the CPC's might have a chance at starting the Era of conservatism.

udawg · February 17, 2004

Too much to hope for, this time around anyway. Maybe a Liberal minority could lead to another election in a year or so, where the Conservatives could actually win a majority.

Michael Hardner · February 17, 2004

The Liberals have slid so far left in recent years

Do you mean socially ?

If so, I think it's Canada that's moving left. Trudeau was ahead of the curve - he obviously made sure that the constitution had enough wiggle room for gay rights. I think that he anticipated a future time when it homosexuality be more acceptable to the public.

As for the Liberals, a friend of mine who knows some "insiders" says that it's civil war with the Libs right now. Martin will crucify Chretien if he has to.

You can't blame him for being angry. He waited for years to be PM, only to be stuck with the sins of his predecessor.

Who would have thought that this scandal would blow so high ? This just goes to show that you can't predict things 100%.

Communist_boy · February 18, 2004

Speaking of his predecessor, this is exactly what chreitien wanted. It is no secret him and martin dont agree. He waits for as long as he can, gets out before this bad report comes out, yet stretches it out so the the liberal mandate will be as short as possible. He spent much of the surplus, and remains close lipped about this entire issue.

Chretien seem it coming, and whether or not martin did, chretien still took advantage of leaving before it came out. he still could be our PM until the end of february, but he realized that when everything happened he would be at the center, making him getting out peacefully very difficult, at least this way he can sit on the sidelines for as long as possible.

Thats just my idea, but things seem to fit together quite well really.

udawg · February 18, 2004

The Liberals have slid so far left in recent years

Do you mean socially ?

If so, I think it's Canada that's moving left.

Very vocal elements in Canada have moved left, anyway. I think there is still a very large proportion of Canadians whose beliefs are well to the right of where the LPOC currently finds itself.

I'm not sure whether it's the Liberals themselves, who, by being in power and controlling a certain amount of public opinion, make it seem like we're moving left as a nation; or whether our people as a whole actually have moved left.

I am of the opinion that it's just a result of Liberal spin and policies that we seem more socialist than we used to be. Deep inside, away from the spin and the media, I think many, if not most, Canadians are much more socially conservative than the Liberals seem to think.