Leadership Poll

[madmax]

Please answer all three questions based on the most recent performance of the 3 National Parties in power and the performances of the Leaders.

THere is plenty of room for comment, as we all know there has been no runaway poll, showing that their is a failing to impress the voters.

Diagnose the problems, is it the leader or the party, that is preventing a breakthrough.

[madmax]

I thought the comment section, could be used to figure out why a virtual stalemate has occurred in the political arena.

What these results might indicate (all 5 of them) is that Harper is the strength of the party, and the reason they are not making the breakthrough could be attributed to him, and not necessarily the Party Brand holding the numbers back.

Looking at the Dion Results, could indicate that Dion has failed to take action, and that it could very well be the Liberal Brand that is keeping the polling numbers high. The L Brand is Bigger then the Leader. (But would this hold up in a campaign as leadership weakness are often exploited)

I am not certain what to think of the NDP holding ground. Layton may be bigger then the Brand, but this can be both an asset and a Liability. There is always a core of NDP support but the growth...like that experienced by Ed Broadbent, was attributed to the strength of his Leadership and Popularity.

So, analysing things might suggest that the Right/Left Leaders have more work to do to create a breakthrough if they are to move the polling numbers.

Perhaps, Dion has to show slight improvement and/or focus and Liberal numbers could shoot up dramatically.

Which gives rise to the fact that Dion may already be written off by the Party Elite and they are searching for "the Next One."

I do believe that Harper has lead his party to a broader base, broken past their Western Base, but now is handcuffed on what to do to receive a majority. What is needed to get that 5 or 6 points needed. He may have hit the ceiling, and the growth will not go further without a subtle turn of direction that doesn't cost him his base.

But the Truth lies in the fact that there isn't one more seat in Alberta that he could get...

[eyeball]

I do believe that Harper has lead his party to a broader base, broken past their Western Base, but now is handcuffed on what to do to receive a majority. What is needed to get that 5 or 6 points needed. He may have hit the ceiling, and the growth will not go further without a subtle turn of direction that doesn't cost him his base.

Harper's party faces the same problem the Liberals do, they can't break past Quebec's new but well established propensity for voting for a regional party.

In Quebec the people provide the leadership, the ROC should take a cue. Perhaps regional representation will prompt the devolpment of Parliamentary coalitions and a move towards proportional representation.

[Bryan]

Harper is also starting to alienate his base by moving too much to the centre trying to court that eastern vote. The CPCs position on Climate Change, and their choice of a red tory finance minister are NOT what I signed on for. The party has become way too Liberal for my liking.

[Argus]

Harper's party faces the same problem the Liberals do, they can't break past Quebec's new but well established propensity for voting for a regional party.

In Quebec the people provide the leadership, the ROC should take a cue. Perhaps regional representation will prompt the devolpment of Parliamentary coalitions and a move towards proportional representation.

The Tories are making inroads in Quebec. Their real problem is immigrant country. The Liberals and NDP have always done their best to scare immigrants with the idea the Tories hate immigrants and ethnics (even though the Tory party has more members and MPs of both groups than any of the other parties). This has been particularly effective in the high immigrant areas where the Liberals, in particular, have been heavily financing all the local group representatives and associations for decades.

[eyeball]

The Tories are making inroads in Quebec. Their real problem is immigrant country. The Liberals and NDP have always done their best to scare immigrants with the idea the Tories hate immigrants and ethnics (even though the Tory party has more members and MPs of both groups than any of the other parties). This has been particularly effective in the high immigrant areas where the Liberals, in particular, have been heavily financing all the local group representatives and associations for decades.

If the Tory rank and file around this forum are anything to go by I'd have to agree with the perception that Tories hate immigrants and ethnics.

I noticed a poll on the news last night showed the Conservatives had slipped a couple of points.

[madmax]

The Tories are making inroads in Quebec. Their real problem is immigrant country. The Liberals and NDP have always done their best to scare immigrants with the idea the Tories hate immigrants and ethnics (even though the Tory party has more members and MPs of both groups than any of the other parties).

I don't believe the NDP has done as well with immigrants as have the CPC or the LPC. Obviously the LPC being the most dominant in Immigration. I do believe that immigration is part of the LPC brand that keeps their polling numbers strong.

The NDP brand has been more associated with women and women candidates, then immigrants. I do believe that with the latest CPC initiative the NDP are trying to grab some of the LPC turf, that the LPC appears to abandon to avoid an election.

I do agree that the CPC has made inroads in Quebec.

[madmax]

Harper is also starting to alienate his base by moving too much to the centre trying to court that eastern vote. The CPCs position on Climate Change, and their choice of a red tory finance minister are NOT what I signed on for. The party has become way too Liberal for my liking.

Flaherty is not a Red Tory. He is incompetent. But I don't believe that this is hurting either the CPC Brand or Harper. Flaherty is being judged by own and this is a good thing.

[madmax]

Harper, Layton looking good as leaders. Dion failing.

http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=672

Similar results to our own straw poll here.

[madmax]

2 People view that Dion is a stronger leader then his party.

19 Disagree with that and believe that the Party is the strongest element.

What is Dion doing wrong in the minds of the 19 and where do you see his strength in those who see him as a strong leader?

[Topaz]

2 People view that Dion is a stronger leader then his party.

19 Disagree with that and believe that the Party is the strongest element.

What is Dion doing wrong in the minds of the 19 and where do you see his strength in those who see him as a strong leader?

I think the polls show that Libs still believe in the Lib party except those in Quebec, where the Libs there were charged of wrong doing in the Lib scam. I do believe, those Libs will come back to the party in time. The poll on this forum shows that the Conservative party is going no were but down.

[madmax]

The Tories are making inroads in Quebec.

Isn't that the problem at the moment. How they made those inroads? Is this what is stalling them outside of Quebec?

[Keepitsimple]

Polls are misleading at this time because Harper is a much better campaigner than Dion - no, I don't have proof of this......but I'm on pretty safe ground - especially since the Liberals aren't even close to having a policy platform....and since we all have to tighten our belts, they can't promise any new spending. If you've had the opportunity to see Harper in news conferences on the international stage, he's just so professional, well-briefed and surprisingly, very likeable. I think we'll see more of that when election time comes. With regards to Quebec, the CPC will make big inroads because there is a clear difference between the Libs and Cons. The Libs are for a big, strong central government that has a history of "intruding" in Provincial areas of juristiction - and Quebecers outside of Montreal detest that paternalistic approach. The CPC have won the confidence of Quebecers by practicing an open and cooperative federalism. Nothing will change that dynamic - they will make big inroads. The other big region in play is Ontario - really, that province keeps the Libs National polling numbers at 30%. Well, TD Bank just announced that Ontario will be a have-not province in two years, if not next year. Continued economic gloom for Ontario will validate Flaherty's tough talk to McGuinty about cutting taxes and attracting investment. The Conservatives have seeded the field for the economic blame to fall rightly (mostly) on McGuinty. The Conservatives seem to have weathered the Danny Windbag storm in Atlantic Canada and are doing well in BC. Couple all these things with strong leadership and the current polls will change drastically come election time.

Edited April 29, 2008 by Keepitsimple

[Oleg Bach]

Polls are misleading at this time because Harper is a much better campaigner than Dion - no, I don't have proof of this......but I'm on pretty safe ground - especially since the Liberals aren't even close to having a policy platform....and since we all have to tighten our belts, they can't promise any new spending. If you've had the opportunity to see Harper in news conferences on the international stage, he's just so professional, well-briefed and surprisingly, very likeable. I think we'll see more of that when election time comes. With regards to Quebec, the CPC will make big inroads because there is a clear difference between the Libs and Cons. The Libs are for a big, strong central government that has a history of "intruding" in Provincial areas of juristiction - and Quebecers outside of Montreal detest that paternalistic approach. The CPC have won the confidence of Quebecers by practicing an open and cooperative federalism. Nothing will change that dynamic - they will make big inroads. The other big region in play is Ontario - really, that province keeps the Libs National polling numbers at 30%. Well, TD Bank just announced that Ontario will be a have-not province in two years, if not next year. Continued economic gloom for Ontario will validate Flaherty's tough talk to McGuinty about cutting taxes and attracting investment. The Conservatives have seeded the field for the economic blame to fall rightly (mostly) on McGuinty. The Conservatives seem to have weathered the Danny Windbag storm in Atlantic Canada and are doing well in BC. Couple all these things with strong leadership and the current polls will change drastically come election time.

McGuinty has limitations...He has a rapid firing mind and mouth..He is one of those persons who uses 100 and 10% of his mental capacity. I am sure he did great on his math tests in grade two and got constant pats on the head for being so swift..BUT - his functioning in over drive is not quite enough...He does not have great intellect..It takes more than speed to finish an endurance race that is the premiership. Bluntly put..he's hyper as a lighting bold and deep as a wading pool on a cold winters day.

Having ranted that..as far as polls..they can not be trusted - Dion is a bland non-personality that will never lead anything other than enemics down half a pint - Harper if the phones stopped working in Washington and Toronto could not make a decision on his own...oh yeh - back to the polls...who ever owns them can post what ever they and their friend want in order to set the public tone of the sheeple.

[nothinarian]

Isn't that the problem at the moment. How they made those inroads? Is this what is stalling them outside of Quebec?

RW social Policies will always limit penetration in Quebec and urban centres - unless Mr. Harper moves away from his base. That results in losing support with independent West and/or RW and/or Rural voter and then - deja vu all over again - populist tub-thumping right rears it's head.

[Argus]

Isn't that the problem at the moment. How they made those inroads? Is this what is stalling them outside of Quebec?

They're only stalled in Ontario, mainly in immigrant country.

[jdobbin]

They're only stalled in Ontario, mainly in immigrant country.

The last Decima poll results:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...bLrMbPSheJJfM9w

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima Poll put Liberal support at 33 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories nationally. The Liberals led the Conservatives in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada and B.C.

http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pag....04.26_ARPW.pdf

The Angus Reid poll had the Liberals tied with the Tories in Quebec and in the lead in Ontario and Atlantic provinces.

Both polls showed that the Tories had stalled.

Edited April 30, 2008 by jdobbin

[Keepitsimple]

The last Decima poll results:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...bLrMbPSheJJfM9w

http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pag....04.26_ARPW.pdf

The Angus Reid poll had the Liberals tied with the Tories in Quebec and in the lead in Ontario and Atlantic provinces.

Both polls showed that the Tories had stalled.

There is an interesting sidebar to the Angus Reid Survey that is misleading.

When asked about the most important issue facing the country, Canadians rank health care (21%) and the environment (20%) as their main concerns, followed by the economy (15%).

Female respondents are more prone to think about health care (25%) as an electoral issue than male respondents (11%), while men are more worried about the national economy (19%) than women (11%). Both genders were equally concerned over the environment and government accountability.

Healthcare is really a Federal issue as opposed to a Provincial one and over the years, funding has rightly been transferred to the Provinces - I believe less than 15% of Healthcare funding is now Federal. I guess it's because the survey provides Healthcare as an option to choose and since people are genuinely concerned about it, they choose it.

[jdobbin]

Healthcare is really a Federal issue as opposed to a Provincial one and over the years, funding has rightly been transferred to the Provinces - I believe less than 15% of Healthcare funding is now Federal. I guess it's because the survey provides Healthcare as an option to choose and since people are genuinely concerned about it, they choose it.

I think you mean vice versa here.

Many polls have shown over the years that the public wants national standards for healthcare. That can't solely be provincial.

A Decima poll came out two days ago that showed there is growing fears about the economy and how Harper will face it.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...kYkIKNUo3N8hTSg

Economic fears, a lack of optimism and a sense that the Tories don't share the concerns of voters are all shaping up as problems for Prime Minister Stephen Harper as Parliament returns from a one-week break.

A new Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey suggests 55 per cent of respondents felt Harper doesn't offer much optimism or inspiration.

It also found that 56 per cent were worried about a recession and 53 per cent said they felt the Tories don't care about the same issues they do.

"These are the three biggest challenges that stand in the way of the Conservatives reassembling the coalition that they had in 2006 - let alone making it big enough to command a majority," said Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson.

Another 55 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement: "There is something about Stephen Harper I just don't like."

Yesterday, the Liberals switched gears and took on the issue of the economy. The Tories seemed somewhat relieved according to the panel on CBC's Politics. The Liberals probably believe that the issue of Elections Canada is something that will be back again later on.

[Keepitsimple]

I think you mean vice versa here.

Many polls have shown over the years that the public wants national standards for healthcare. That can't solely be provincial.

A Decima poll came out two days ago that showed there is growing fears about the economy and how Harper will face it.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...kYkIKNUo3N8hTSg

Yesterday, the Liberals switched gears and took on the issue of the economy. The Tories seemed somewhat relieved according to the panel on CBC's Politics. The Liberals probably believe that the issue of Elections Canada is something that will be back again later on.

Got me....it was vice versa.

Interesting survey question about optimism and inspiration. Flaherty and Harper have made it abundantly clear that Canada is positioned quite well to weather the recessionary storm brewing in the US......but they cannot take a Pollyanna view of don't worry - be happy. Pragmatism in the face of reality seldom generates inspiration but it can generate confidence.

As for not being in tune with what Canadians view as important, it may be better to look at what the Angus Reid survey that you posted had to say - it's no more flattering but points out that in general, Canadians seem to answer questions along party lines.....or they think that ALL politicians are out of tune.

However, barely a third of respondents (34%) think the current prime minister understands the problems of Canadians (23% for Dion), and 30 per cent say Harper generally agrees with them on issues they care about (24% for Dion).