Another 'gas war' in the East

[MMT]

Taken from http://www.vdesyatku.net/eng

The most recent replica of Starfor "Geopolitical Diary: Medvedev's Grand Entrance" (http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/geopolitical_diary_medvedevs_grand_entrance) hinted that Kremlin’s implementing a long term political maneuver while announcing a 25% cut of natural gas supply to Ukraine a few days ago -

“In Stratfor’s eyes, though this Russian power play was a long time coming, Russia’s timing could not have been more perfect. In Moscow’s eyes, European recognition of Kosovar independence despite vehement Russian objections represented both a threat to Russia’s regional prowess and an opportunity to reassert Moscow’s authority in the Russian periphery. From the Russian point of view, Europe had to be taught a hard lesson that would be felt where Russia holds the most leverage — namely, in the Balkans, the Caucasus, Ukraine and the Baltic states.”

Sadly, the Startor analysts certainly didn’t pay much attention to what prof. Peter Khomyakov wrote about crisis situation in Russian energy system in 2006 (http://www.vdesyatku.net/eng/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=27&Itemid=25) and later in 2007 (http://www.vdesyatku.net/eng/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=14&Itemid=25). An idea that people in Kremlin are masters of political intrigue shouldn’t be argued here. Let them intrigue as they could. However, the root cause of such behaviour is not a will for political revenge by the aging and sick empire, it’s not an intention to help Serbian “brothers in Christ”, and it’s not a protective measure to prevent separatism movements in the heartland.

What is it then? It’s a trivial business of Gasprom and its godfather, the KGB colonel Putin.

Professor Khomyakov has explained that lack of resources and decline of gas production would force Gasprom to use any excuse to drop down the gas supply to the domestic and neighboring consumers in order to maintain its high contractual commitments to the well developed countries in the West.

That’s the reason, why Kremlin uses a Ukranian “debt” as an excuse to shutdown the energy flow to the neighbouring country. It uses the Kosovo independence precedent to pretend that Russia could still rule, and eventually bargain the indulgence for the inevitable overall failure as the energy securor for the West. With German chancelor flying to Moscow with intention to soften a political deal with “angry” tsars over the Kosovo problem, it gives the neo-KGB gang an excellent chance to be forgiven for the breaking off gas contract and still remain in a seeminly good business shape, though the bankrupcy is noticeably knocking to the colonel’s doors.

[sharkman]

I heard Russia shut off oil to Georgia recently, is this part of the same situation?