Alberta Election

[Bayman35]

The only real debate in this province is whether the PC's get a minority or a majority. Chances are there will be leadership reviews like crazy next month.

The real fun will be watching the NDP get their communist socialist asses beaten by the Wildrose Alliance party. There's actually a pool at work ($5 to get in; I'm in for $10).

Monday will be fun.

Here's is to hoping you are right, more splitting on your side of things might let a few opposition members run up the middle

[socred]

Here's is to hoping you are right, more splitting on your side of things might let a few opposition members run up the middle

“The proper function of Parliament, I may perhaps be allowed to repeat, is to force all activities of a public nature to be carried on so that the individuals who comprise the public may derive the maximum benefit from them. Once the idea is grasped, the criminal absurdity of the party system becomes evident.” (C.H. Douglas, "The Tragedy of Human Effort,” Address at Central Hall, Liverpool, October 30, 1936.)

Replace the word Parliment with Legislature, and the meaning is exactly the same.

Edited March 1, 2008 by socred

[oreodontist]

I'm wondering if the 279,000 new people who moved there will be able to vote and if so how will they. I heard on the news that the Conservatives may be done this time around.

Ridiculous. What news? MAD Magazine?

[oreodontist]

The only real debate in this province is whether the PC's get a minority or a majority. Chances are there will be leadership reviews like crazy next month.

Monday will be fun.

Huh?

Polls show a huge PC majority. Who is predicting otherwise? No one is predicting it won't be a majority. Every poll and pundit indicates the majority may even increase over the last election.

Where did you hear any prediction about a minority?

Edited March 1, 2008 by oreodontist

[Bayman35]

Huh?

Polls show a huge PC majority. Who is predicting otherwise? No one is predicting it won't be a majority. Every poll and pundit indicates the majority may even increase over the last election.

Where did you hear any prediction about a minority?

The latest journal poll done had a sample group that was under a thousand people which is a pretty small snapshot of the population, it's margin of error was pretty large and had an even larger undecided group, I would say more importantly how many people show up period. Hopefully its not 40% of eligible voters deciding the future of this province again. It's pretty pathetic when almost 50% of voters don't even show up here.

[fellowtraveller]

I think the current Tories in Alberta would be center right

Well, you'd be wrong, and saying the same thing over and over doesn't make it so.

[oreodontist]

The latest journal poll done had a sample group that was under a thousand people which is a pretty small snapshot of the population, it's margin of error was pretty large and had an even larger undecided group, I would say more importantly how many people show up period. Hopefully its not 40% of eligible voters deciding the future of this province again. It's pretty pathetic when almost 50% of voters don't even show up here.

That's not a predition. I haven't heard a single prediciton of anything other than a sweeping majority. I'm surprised anyone living in Alberta could be so out of touch with realty that they would see the situation otherwise.

As for people not voting, that can be analysed forever. Do people not vote because they are content with the current situation? Not vote because they don't like the choices? Not vote because of....? Alberta has the youngest population in Canada and younger people vote less than older folks. Who knows? I'm guessing that many don't vote because they know that the majority of Albertans are quite content with the PCs and their vote simply is irrelevent in riding such as mine in which the PC wallops the opposition. Why have the guy win by 10,001 votes instead of 10,000. I'm that type of voter. If the weather is nice next week, we'll walk over and chat with neighbors and mark an 'x' ...if it's crappy out then probably put our feet up.

[Bayman35]

That's not a predition. I haven't heard a single prediciton of anything other than a sweeping majority. I'm surprised anyone living in Alberta could be so out of touch with realty that they would see the situation otherwise.

As for people not voting, that can be analysed forever. Do people not vote because they are content with the current situation? Not vote because they don't like the choices? Not vote because of....? Alberta has the youngest population in Canada and younger people vote less than older folks. Who knows? I'm guessing that many don't vote because they know that the majority of Albertans are quite content with the PCs and their vote simply is irrelevent in riding such as mine in which the PC wallops the opposition. Why have the guy win by 10,001 votes instead of 10,000. I'm that type of voter. If the weather is nice next week, we'll walk over and chat with neighbors and mark an 'x' ...if it's crappy out then probably put our feet up.

You should read the journal today there are quite a few situations being pointed out be Graham Thomson that could be very interesting. That and the fact that there are 289,000 new Albertans eligible to vote and nobody really knows A) if they will vote and if they do how will it effect the outcomes in various ridings. I'm not arguing with you the Tories will end up with another majority. Most evidence points in that direction, the only "X" factor is what percentage of voters will turn out? How will almost 300,000 new Albertans vote, if they vote? and if the supposedly 20% of Albertans polled who fall into the column of undecided vote then how will they vote? There are just a lot of variables they could change this election, not to say dramatically but it might not be such a sweeping endorsement is all.

[oreodontist]

You should read the journal today there are quite a few situations being pointed out be Graham Thomson that could be very interesting. That and the fact that there are 289,000 new Albertans eligible to vote and nobody really knows A) if they will vote and if they do how will it effect the outcomes in various ridings. I'm not arguing with you the Tories will end up with another majority. Most evidence points in that direction, the only "X" factor is what percentage of voters will turn out? How will almost 300,000 new Albertans vote, if they vote? and if the supposedly 20% of Albertans polled who fall into the column of undecided vote then how will they vote? There are just a lot of variables they could change this election, not to say dramatically but it might not be such a sweeping endorsement is all.

There's always new voters. Calgary is made upon newcomers over the last couple decades. The majority of voters are not born Albertans. I work in a company that has 18 employees. Only 3 of who are from Alberta. Probably half will vote. One will vote Liberal. I will vote Green (if they are on the ballot). The rest will vote PC. The gal voting Liberal is not voting 'for' the Libs but against the PCs...I'm more or less the same but would vote PC if the race was close and a Liberal might squeak in.

Most of these 'new voters' were around for the last Federal election and the province is solid Blue. New voters aren't a different species as the folks already here.

(we'll have to post our predictions on Monday. Trust me on this one. Afterall, I was certain Giulliani would be the next President )

[oreodontist]

My prediction: (drum roll, please)

Conservative 63

Liberal 18

NDP 2

[geoffrey]

I voted today and I didn't vote Tory. None the less, they'll win, and win big, which is fine with me.

Just wanted to send a message to ol' Eddy that I'm a little sick of the reckless spending. Too bad too few other Albertans aren't as rational about it all.

[socred]

I voted today and I didn't vote Tory. None the less, they'll win, and win big, which is fine with me.

Just wanted to send a message to ol' Eddy that I'm a little sick of the reckless spending. Too bad too few other Albertans aren't as rational about it all.

Rational about what?

[geoffrey]

Rational about what?

Thinking that more money being spent by Edmonton will solve all the problems, ie., the platforms of the Liberals, NDP and PCs.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Thinking that more money being spent by Edmonton will solve all the problems, ie., the platforms of the Liberals, NDP and PCs.

Read the WRAP policy page and tell me they don't plan on spending billions of dollars and expanding the already bloated bureaucracy of the province.

[geoffrey]

Read the WRAP policy page and tell me they don't plan on spending billions of dollars and expanding the already bloated bureaucracy of the province.

Still the lesser of the four evils really. At least accountability is one of their pillars, no other party seems to care.

[socred]

Thinking that more money being spent by Edmonton will solve all the problems, ie., the platforms of the Liberals, NDP and PCs.

Politicians are always willing to spend your money, but I don't see any substantial difference between any of the political parties.

[Bayman35]

My prediction

Conservatives 60

Liberals 14

WRAP 5

NDP 4

[Bayman35]

Oh and voter turnout 44%

[Bayman35]

If voter turnout is higher then 65% my prediction is

Conservatives 56

Liberals 15

NDP 6

WRAP 5

[Bayman35]

If voter turnout is higher then 65% my prediction is

Conservatives 56

Liberals 15

NDP 6

WRAP 5

Sorry Conservatives 57

[Bayman35]

Just a non-partisan question for everyone, how is it that 2/3 of Albertans live in Edmonton and Calgary yet 1/3 of the population has more seats? Just curious?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Old demographic model suits the government purpose of staying in power. The harsh reality here is that the PC Party will still govern after the election. On the one hand it is very possible that the vote splitting between the WRAPers and the PC folks will push Liberals over the top in many ridings. There is a small chance that the PC Party could lose literally dozens of seat due to this splitting.

PC 39

Lib 35

NDP 6

WP 3

[oreodontist]

Old demographic model suits the government purpose of staying in power. The harsh reality here is that the PC Party will still govern after the election. On the one hand it is very possible that the vote splitting between the WRAPers and the PC folks will push Liberals over the top in many ridings. There is a small chance that the PC Party could lose literally dozens of seat due to this splitting.

PC 39

Lib 35

NDP 6

WP 3

Wrong. Not 'very posible' at all. Are you really so out of touch?

[oreodontist]

Just a non-partisan question for everyone, how is it that 2/3 of Albertans live in Edmonton and Calgary yet 1/3 of the population has more seats? Just curious?

There's 83 seats. Metropolitan Calgary and metropolitan Edmonton have 51. That leaves 32....that 32 inludes Red Deer (100,000), Lethbridge, Ft.Mac, Grande Prairie, Medicine Hat. Provincial ridings in Alberta are more evenly distributed in population than Federal ridings across Canada.

[geoffrey]

There's 83 seats. Metropolitan Calgary and metropolitan Edmonton have 51. That leaves 32....that 32 inludes Red Deer (100,000), Lethbridge, Ft.Mac, Grande Prairie, Medicine Hat. Provincial ridings in Alberta are more evenly distributed in population than Federal ridings across Canada.

Your right with that. There are actually few rural ridings once you consider the smaller cities.

My prediction

PC 55

LIB 20

WRA 5

NDP 3