Who Will Win The Tory Leadership?

[Pellaken]

note:

who do you think WILL win, not who do you WANT to win.

[Pellaken]

I think Prentice will win.

There are more seats in Quebec then there are in BC & Alberta.

with the weighting system, Quebec votes are very important. Prentice is very popular in Quebec, among members. at least he was in the PC Leadership vote. When the votes roll in:

Harper and Strahl will split the vote in the west. Harper will win out, but the votes Strahl will take are important.

Clement and Stronach will split the vote in Ontario. I'm not yet sure which one will take more votes. Quebec, however, will vote for Prentice. I dont think anyone can pose a real threat to him there. Eastern Canada will go to MacKay. If he does not run, Prentice will gain even more votes, as the former PC membership is more fimilar with them then they are with other candidates for the leadership race.

[Neal.F.]

Harper has it in the bag. He's got the whole CA establishment behind him. And anyone with brains in Ontario to. To think that Ontarians will vote for the Stronach woman just because she hails from Toronto is oversimplifying things. She'll get votes from the PC faction, but Harper will clean up from among former Alliance members.

Don't hand Quebec on a platter to Prentice either. he did well among PROGRESSIVE conservatives, but many of them took their marbles and went crying home. Furthermore, Harper has just taken on Michael Fortier, a former PC leadership candidate (1998) as his campaign manager in the province.

[westcoast99]

Harper has it in the bag. He's got the whole CA establishment behind him.

You're correct, he has the vast majority of the CA establishment behind him.

However, the Alliance is a western based organization, and the process favours a national candidate.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Gugsy

[Neal.F.]

You seem to think that the Alliance has nothing in Ontario, or for that matter Quebec. remember the CA got more votes than the Tories in 2000....

and to think that people in Ontario are going to go for Stronach or clement just because they're the homeboys is also a misconception. I live in Quebec and could not care less what region a leader comes from. I just want the best.

As for MacKay, the little paper from David Orchard will haunt him for at least the next few months, if not much longer. He's aout of the game and should not waste his time. Ihear he ran up some BIG debts in his last campaign, some of which he is personally on the hook for.

Stronach? get serious. I like what the Clement people called her "Paul Martin in a cocktail dress". social liberal, fiscal conservative.... that begs another question: Didn't the conservatives just get rid of Joe Clark?

[Pellaken]

harper will win perhaps 50% in BC

maybe 75% in alberta

66% in SK and MB

0.1% in Quebec, if he's lucky

maybe 5% in the east (yes, some people out here even think we are defeatest)

the key, as you say, will be ontario.

the key the the election is also ontario... fortunatly, only 1 major party has a leader who is from ontairo

[westcoast99]

You seem to think that the Alliance has nothing in Ontario, or for that matter Quebec. remember the CA got more votes than the Tories in 2000....

I don't see there being any clear winner in Ontario in the early rounds. Edited August 12, 2015 by Gugsy

[Neal.F.]

What makes you think MacKay will run? It is said he's in debt up to his ears for the last run, not to mention that the Orchard parchment has turned him into tainted tuna.

Believe me, I have no problem with him, but rest assured the Liberals will hold up their copies of that paperevery time he makes a promise.

[Pellaken]

due to recent events, I am changing my prediction

the first ballot results will look thustly:

Harper-45%

Stronach-30%

Clement-15%

Strahl-10%

most of Clement and Strahl's supporters will go to Stronach. Every other person who wants to run (and even most who dont; Klien, Harris, Lord, MacKay, etc) has too much baggage. they have this or that reason why people dont like them. Stronach is totally new, I dont even know if she speaks french! it is this "newness" that the new party needs.

[Neal.F.]

If she wins, most of us are out of there. The CA could easily regroup leaving her and the progressives floundering.

[Smiling Moose]

most of Clement and Strahl's supporters will go to Stronach

Say's who? What would lead you to believe this?

the first ballot results will look thustly:

Harper-45%

Stronach-30%

Clement-15%

Strahl-10%

Please explain how Stronach is going to get 30% of the vote? She exists only in a name to 10% of Canadians, the rest have no idea who this women is. Why would they vote for a no-name women with no public image and no declared policies?

[Pellaken]

Why would they vote for a no-name women with no public image and no declared policies?

because she's not Harper

[Smiling Moose]

because she's not Harper

Boy, that's brilliant. Please Pellaken, share more of your wonderful insights into the political processes.

You still didn't answer my question about "Clement and Strahl's supporters" going to Stronach. Why not?

[Pellaken]

Stephen Harper, weather anyone likes it or not, is still seen as a Canadian-Alliance-Reformer. Hence, the people in the know do not want him as leader. They are looking for someone to rally around, and both Clement and Strahl have too much baggage. Why would someone support Clement or Strahl over Harper? the ONLY reason I can see is because they are not Harper. Hence, if you are voting for one not-harper, you'r more likely to vote for another.

[Kiraly]

Harper will lock up the leadership of the party immediately following a televised leadership debate.

I don't think Clement and Stronach have much of a chance against him in a verbal joust.

[Communist_boy]

well Mackay is officially off the list.

MacKay checks out of leadership race

My theory on this is that if Harper wins Mackay will get something out of it.

[Neal.F.]

In a one member one vote system, I'd say you were spot-on, but this is the old Tory delegated system, where a Quebec riding with 10 members has the same clout as an Alberta riding with 7000 members.

In Ontario and Quebec where most of the ridings are located, depending on how many memberships are sold (and by whom) , there could be enough delegates to deny Mr Harper a first ballot victory.

Don't underestimate what depths the eastern progressives can and will go to to stop Harper.

watch the newspapers.

Remember in 1993, how Kim Campbell always looked dignified in press photos while she was their darling, and then when the wroite her off, the photos always showed her looking shrewish.

Honestly, Harper looked like a clown on the Globe's front page today.

[futurepm]

In my opinion, Stronach is the perfect person for this position. Considering that she is from a "big business" and the New Conservative Party will support "big businesses" I think that she is the perfect person. I think she will get alot of votes(if she wins) amongst Ontario and other people throughout Canada who support or work for big businesses.

[Neal.F.]

If you like BIG business, vote for Paul Martin, or his evil fraternal twin in the cocktail dress.

It happens that most jobs come from small and medium size business.

Paul Martin & Belinda Stronach....

The Bobbsey Twins of Bay Street, to borrow Ed Broadbent'as battle cry from 1984. The only way to tell them apart is gender and approximately 30 years.

What's good for Bay Street is good for Bay Street. Not for Canadians in general.

What's good for Canadians is a business environment that is conducive small entrepreneurs and medium size businesses, and a social environment that fosters community and family.

[sir_springer]

I'll tell you who is probably praying that Stronach wins.

Jack Layton.

It would be his ticket to Stornoway...gift wrapped, no less.

BTW...

Similar poll over at Free Dominion also has Harper at 65%.

[KrustyKidd]

I think that she is the perfect person. I think she will get alot of votes(if she wins) amongst Ontario and other people throughout Canada who support or work for big businesses.

Perfect indeed. Married twice, born into wealth. Yes, evernman, every woman. And most perfect of all, I never heard of her until she 'United the Right.'

I did a double take because in McLeans they always have mutts for chicks whenever there is a picture (unless it's an athelete) and she caught my eye. I read the article, United the Right. Has no designs on Party Leadership. LOL.

If she runs, I'm voting Liberal. Hows that for winning anything?

BTW, Harper and all I never heard of before this. Manning was the man, Harris turned out to be a scumbag and Day an idiot.

God, why couldn't you have made me a moron Liberal so voting would be easy?

[Goldie]

I don't know why Conservatives are trashing Stronach. I have heard nothing about her, good or bad. Could somebody hook me up with why I should not even give her a chance? like some of us here seem to be doing.

Remember big tent conservatives from all over the country? I'm not jumpimg on the Magna parts wagon but please lets see what she brings to the party. I've heard some pretty harsh things, "EVIL"," Paul Martin in a cocktail dress". Our swords need be pointed at the Liberals, remember! Preston Manning also asking conservatives to keep it clean during the leadership campaign. Cleanliness is even more important at the grassroots because we make the party.

You may not respect me but we should take Harpers and Mannings advice.

Krusty- Day is not an idiot. He is my MP and I had cofffee with him in Summerland during the firestorm. He is a great guy and very intelligent. Trusting the wrong people politically does not make a person an idiot, it Makes him human so lay off Day unless you know him.

[KrustyKidd]

OK, Day is a Conservative Chomsky. He just comes off like an idiot. Kidding. The guy was OK. He was bashed by inexperience Liberal Media and bad advisors. Clark would have turned it around if he had been there. BTW, I'm no fan of Clark and when I said I would vote Liberal I was ranting, sorry.

Back to Stronach, I have no idea who she is and where she wants to go or her beliefs and political track record for guys like us. Why not throw in a few hundred other unknowns to muddle the Conservative choices up so we really don't know who is who. That really focuses on the Liberal 'problem' doesn't it? Her entry into the ring is simply a game for her. For us, it's life and death. Serious, I'm ready to bolt from this country for the sake of my daughter growing up into a country that is almost socialist. That's serious stuff to me. First she says no, then she says yes. What is wrong with her being satisfied with being known for unselfishly uniting the right? Guess it doesn't satisfy her career plans for fame. The black body suit photos and being called a babe by the papers reminds me of that last PC loser - Cambell. I need a politician that can kick Liberal butt and has a record, not a stripper.

See what she brings to the party? Sorry, I'm a member but watched my MP vote her own pay raise in line with the Liberals as one of her first official acts in government. If you think that I have a lot of time for BS like her or unknowns I don't. There had better be something a lot more honest, recognizable, substancial and rewarding at the end of this conservative rainbow than todays pretty face.

One other thing. You don't come on here very often but I do place much weight on your posts. Especially the What is a Canadian one, it was inspiring.

[Mr. Chater]

if only Lord would be running... :(

[Neal.F.]

YEs. Lord would have been someone both sidescould live with. Stronach will cause another Schism. if she wins, Jacko should get Olivia to start planning the new look for Stornoway.

Goldie, I never called her "evil" I used the colloquialism "evil twin"

And as for Day.... If only he were running.