Canadian Political Polls

[capricorn]

No, they are not Liberal talking points at all. The press has noticed.

For the most part, the MSM are Liberal parrots. Or is it the other way around. Anyway, it doesn't matter as they are interchangeable.

Nonpartisan Canadians have noticed.

Where oh where have you uncovered this jewel of information? Please share.

I think you just wish these attributes were talking points when in reality, they are reality.

They're talking points because they are repeated over and over again in Liberal blogs and by Liberal-leaning pundits on political shows. After a while, it gets boring, unoriginal and not credible. The Conservatives can also bore me with "Dion is not a leader" although on that count I can tolerate the truth.

[Fortunata]

For the most part, the MSM are Liberal parrots. Or is it the other way around. Anyway, it doesn't matter as they are interchangeable.

Now you are just parroting the Conservative mantra. Oh how you wish it were so. Andrew Coyne a Liberal parrot? Hahaha.

Where oh where have you uncovered this jewel of information? Please share.

Around the water cooler. Tim Horton's line-ups. Grocery store check-outs. Talk to people you don't know and don't think exactly the same as you. You might be surprised at what you find out.

They're talking points because they are repeated over and over again in Liberal blogs and by Liberal-leaning pundits on political shows. After a while, it gets boring, unoriginal and not credible. The Conservatives can also bore me with "Dion is not a leader" although on that count I can tolerate the truth.

So does the NDP, the Bloc and ordinary Canadians that never read a Liberal blog. Liberal-leaning pundits? Like Robert Fife and Craig Oliver? You just wish it were only the Liberals. But never mind, like has been mentioned already, this behaviour keeps the Cons out of majority territory.

[capricorn]

Just as Liberals thank Harper profusely for staying on since his style of government keeps them out of majority territory.

Yes, those polls tell the whole story, NOT.

The Liberals won't stay weak forever.

With Dion, all bets are off.

It must be why Harper's government seems so unhappy all the time.

If my government looked happy, I'd worry. I mean, the economy is hurting, criminals are ruling the streets, thousands of illegals have gone missing, the environment threatens to fry us, soldiers are dying, tourists are staying away, the CBC lost the rights to HNIC, and the list goes on. What's to be happy about?

[capricorn]

Now you are just parroting the Conservative mantra. Oh how you wish it were so. Andrew Coyne a Liberal parrot? Hahaha.

There's nothing wrong with getting on the bandwagon. You print what you think the public will buy.

Around the water cooler. Tim Horton's line-ups. Grocery store check-outs. Talk to people you don't know and don't think exactly the same as you. You might be surprised at what you find out.

I call BS. Canadians for the most part are introverted and don't share their political insights willy-nilly. Canadians are polite to a fault and only share their thoughts with people closest to them whom they trust. Try again.

[Fortunata]

There's nothing wrong with getting on the bandwagon. You print what you think the public will buy.

Ah, I see. If you repeat what the Cons say you are only getting on the bandwagon but if you repeat what the Libs and others say you are a parrot. One standard for you and another for everyone else?

I call BS. Canadians for the most part are introverted and don't share their political insights willy-nilly. Canadians are polite to a fault and only share their thoughts with people closest to them whom they trust. Try again.

I don't happen to be an introvert and feel sorry for you if you are one. Just try talking to people, you'll see it works especially at Tim Horton's 20 minute lineup. Out here in the west we are a friendly bunch. Maybe you're just living in the wrong place.

[jdobbin]

Yes, those polls tell the whole story, NOT.

The polls have said Harper is below majority support. If he felt any different, I'm sure he would have said that Parliament had lost confidence and he would have dropped the writ. He hasn't.

With Dion, all bets are off.

Brave talk against a weak leader who still still could keep Harper from full majority support.

If my government looked happy, I'd worry. I mean, the economy is hurting, criminals are ruling the streets, thousands of illegals have gone missing, the environment threatens to fry us, soldiers are dying, tourists are staying away, the CBC lost the rights to HNIC, and the list goes on. What's to be happy about?

Abortion is still legal, same sex marriage is happening and the death penalty has not be re-instituted. Yes, I know...it is enough to make any on the right wing cry.

[jbg]

Abortion is still legal, same sex marriage is happening and the death penalty has not be re-instituted. Yes, I know...it is enough to make any on the right wing cry.

And even in the more right-wing US none of those things has happened. Even the so-called restoration of the death penalty is illusory in much of the country.

[MontyBurns]

Abortion is still legal, same sex marriage is happening and the death penalty has not be re-instituted.

Wouldn't want to upset womens extremists, mass murderers or their supporters. Now would we?

[jdobbin]

Wouldn't want to upset womens extremists, mass murderers or their supporters. Now would we?

Sounds very left wing.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Strategic Counsel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Meanwhile, the poll suggests support for the Conservatives continues to slip from a recent high of 39 per cent in February, now putting the party within just two points of the Liberals.

Most of those lost votes appear to have bled to the NDP (percentage-point change from a May 8-11 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 32 per cent (-2)

* Liberals: 30 per cent (-1)

* New Democrats: 18 per cent (+2)

* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (+1)

* Green Party: 10 per cent (same)

Economic concerns are now starting to influence polls a lot more.

[capricorn]

Ah, I see. If you repeat what the Cons say you are only getting on the bandwagon but if you repeat what the Libs and others say you are a parrot. One standard for you and another for everyone else?

That's what being partisan is all about.

I don't happen to be an introvert and feel sorry for you if you are one. Just try talking to people, you'll see it works especially at Tim Horton's 20 minute lineup. Out here in the west we are a friendly bunch. Maybe you're just living in the wrong place.

I didn't mean "introverted", I meant "reserved". I am French speaking and although I try to be as precise in English as possible, I sometimes use the wrong terms. I can see how my usage of "introverted" to describe many Canadians resulted the response you offered.

I am neither introverted or reserved. I am quite vocal in my discussions and opinions, here and elsewhere. Also, I do appreciate forthright people such as you.

Where I live is no secret. It's in my personal profile. My city may not be as friendly as cities in the West, but I have never had to wait 20 minutes in line at a Timmy's. That must count for something.

[capricorn]

Brave talk against a weak leader who still still could keep Harper from full majority support.

With the missteps by the Conservatives, the Liberals should be well ahead of them in the polls. This might well be the case if the Liberals could just dump Dion.

Abortion is still legal, same sex marriage is happening and the death penalty has not be re-instituted. Yes, I know...it is enough to make any on the right wing cry.

So much for Harper's "scary" agenda. No wonder the Liberals have dropped that label. It's enough to make Liberals cry.

[Vancouver King]

With the missteps by the Conservatives, the Liberals should be well ahead of them in the polls. This might well be the case if the Liberals could just dump Dion.

So much for Harper's "scary" agenda. No wonder the Liberals have dropped that label. It's enough to make Liberals cry.

Yet the second choice poll above shows NDP and Green voters clearly favor the Liberals as an alternative choice. This demonstrates an aversion to Conservative govt; ie. it's scary agenda.

It must throw fear into Tory hearts to realize the Liberals can grow their support significantly through strategic voting. Sitting with 10-15% less support than at the last election and little prospect for expansion, Harper runs a govt in trouble.

[capricorn]

Yet the second choice poll above shows NDP and Green voters clearly favor the Liberals as an alternative choice. This demonstrates an aversion to Conservative govt; ie. it's scary agenda.

So be it. We get the government we deserve.

It must throw fear into Tory hearts to realize the Liberals can grow their support significantly through strategic voting.

I'm too old to have fear in my heart, especially over politics. I'll leave the fear to other Conservative supporters.

Sitting with 10-15% less support than at the last election and little prospect for expansion, Harper runs a govt in trouble.

Yeah, with Dion and the Liberals' permission, of course. Tsk, tsk.

[jdobbin]

With the missteps by the Conservatives, the Liberals should be well ahead of them in the polls. This might well be the case if the Liberals could just dump Dion.

Oppositions leaders never have it easy. I suspect that Manley, McKenna and others might have struggled as well.

The party seems to recognize that Dion is not going to be a party organizer and fundraiser. Like Trudeau, the party has to do that themselves. What Dion will have to do is build a team because unlike Harper, he won't be able to run as the man who controls and directs everything.

I think if you recall that before the last election the Tories were not in the lead. It took the Goodale announcement according to Nik Nanos to send the Liberals 10 points down.

So much for Harper's "scary" agenda. No wonder the Liberals have dropped that label. It's enough to make Liberals cry.

I wish there was a progressive wing of the Conservative party that I could point to that will temper the social conservatives who are waiting for a majority

Harper controls that element now with the promise of a majority. The incremental approach is only for minority governments.

In any event, we again see two polls that show the main parties in a statistical tie. Wounded or not, the Liberals are keeping the Tories away from that majority.

[Fortunata]

With the missteps by the Conservatives, the Liberals should be well ahead of them in the polls. This might well be the case if the Liberals could just dump Dion.

Nice turnaround, but what I think you really mean is: With Dion as a "weak" leader and the Libs in disarray, the Conservatives should be well ahead of them in the polls. This might well be the case if the Conservatives were indeed principled, ethical, transparent and accountable; if they didn't sue to suppress the democratic process (which they were elected to uphold); if the revered Con leader didn't act like a pit bull and his Ministers and MPs were something more than his puppets.

[Wild Bill]

I wish there was a progressive wing of the Conservative party that I could point to that will temper the social conservatives who are waiting for a majority

Harper controls that element now with the promise of a majority. The incremental approach is only for minority governments.

Do you have any hard evidence for this conspiracy theory? Or is it just an opinion?

I vividly remember listening to Harper years ago while speaking to the Reform Party at a Party Platform convention (remember that idea? The members of a party voting on BINDING party policy? Are today's leaders of all parties ever glad that one went down the "memory hole"!). He clearly and emphatically told the party that if they tried in any way to use political power for social engineering over morality issues like birth control, abortion or even Sunday shopping they would see their party LOSE, LOSE AND LOSE!

I find it hard to agree with you when it means accepting that Harper would have had a complete and utter turnaround in his opinion.

Sometimes I think Michael may be right when he taunts you with "scary, scary, scary".

Tell me the present Tory party has a lot of Ned Flanders types and I might agree. Tell me that they haven't shown themselves to be better than the others and I could respect your opinion. Try to tell me that Harper and his gang are just waiting for a majority so they can commit political suicide as social engineers and I have a hard time swallowing your argument.

Edited June 12, 2008 by Wild Bill

[jdobbin]

Do you have any hard evidence for this conspiracy theory? Or is it just an opinion?

One of Harper chief advisers Tom Flanagan has mentioned the incremental approach many times in interviews. It was just mentioned this month that the private member's bill to make the murder of a pregnant woman to be a double homicide is an example of opening the door. This then recognizes the fetus as human being and thereby makes it possible to later on say that any harm to a fetus can be ruled a crime. Incrementalism.

I think it would be pretty naive to suggest that the Tories have put aside feelings on issues such as the death penalty and abortion.

I vividly remember listening to Harper years ago while speaking to the Reform Party at a Party Platform convention (remember that idea? The members of a party voting on BINDING party policy? Are today's leaders of all parties ever glad that one went down the "memory hole"!). He clearly and emphatically told the party that if they tried in any way to use political power for social engineering over morality issues like birth control, abortion or even Sunday shopping they would see their party LOSE, LOSE AND LOSE!

And Tom Flanagan and the Harper brain trust has said they will try to incrementally change those things. Harper is against transformative change. It doesn't mean he isn't a social conservative.

This is where Flanagan describes that policy.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/f...-slow-pace.aspx

I find it hard to agree with you when it means accepting that Harper would have had a complete and utter turnaround in his opinion.

Sometimes I think Michael may be right when he taunts you with "scary, scary, scary".

He ended up being banned for his over the top attacking views.

Harper has tried to slow down the pace of social conservatism but it is still an idealogical base in the party. How it is done is by introducing laws such as: Death penalty for murder of a police officer. Incremental change rather than a wholesale change in the law.

Harper sometimes says a debate is over but leaves room for wiggling around later on these controversial social issues.

Tell me the present Tory party has a lot of Ned Flanders types and I might agree. Tell me that they haven't shown themselves to be better than the others and I could respect your opinion. Try to tell me that Harper and his gang are just waiting for a majority so they can commit political suicide as social engineers and I have a hard time swallowing your argument.

Tell me that there won't be a move to incrementally change the law on things like abortion and I might respect your opinion. The angry reaction to Dion saying the Liberals would kill the Tory private member's bill on death of pregnant woman and fetus tells me different.

[Wild Bill]

Harper has tried to slow down the pace of social conservatism but it is still an idealogical base in the party. How it is done is by introducing laws such as: Death penalty for murder of a police officer. Incremental change rather than a wholesale change in the law.

Harper sometimes says a debate is over but leaves room for wiggling around later on these controversial social issues.

Tell me that there won't be a move to incrementally change the law on things like abortion and I might respect your opinion. The angry reaction to Dion saying the Liberals would kill the Tory private member's bill on death of pregnant woman and fetus tells me different.

Well, I can accept the Tories may be following a policy of incrementalism but as usual things aren't that simple. We can differ on precisely which policies they champion.

Furthermore, although we've never actually had referenda on capital punishment or abortion, polls have consistently shown that there never has been a strong majority for the status quo. The only poll I ever saw that purported to show that most Canadians were against capital punishment was one where the question was phrased so that it implied it was almost mandatory for even trivial cases!

Even someone as Libertarian as myself has had to accept that perhaps abortion has become too casual and that there's room for a better solution. Or at least that a majority of my fellow citizens might feel that way, if anyone ever bothered to ask them.

I'm just saying that you seem to be assuming that Harper's Tories want to incrementally change such laws against the will of the majority of the people. If we had a true referendum for capital punishment as an option in cases "beyond all reasonable doubt" like a Charles Ng or a Paul Bernardo it might carry by majority! Likewise, if abortion was strictly enforced as only available for the 1st trimester or restricted for a woman who repeatedly uses abortion instead of birth control it might not satisfy the bible thumping crowd but it may garner majority support overall.

Whatever, even if you're correct in your suspicions I can't see your two examples being first on their agenda for anyone but a Vic Toews. I think a Triple E Senate and a return of provincial powers might be more important to the Tories. Time will tell. It looks like Dion is not likely to knock Harper out in the next election and a Tory majority might be a struggle but far more likely than even a minority for Dion.

[capricorn]

What Dion will have to do is build a team because unlike Harper, he won't be able to run as the man who controls and directs everything.

Build a team?? With who? C'mon dobbin, you know very well this guy is toast. The next Liberal team will be built by either Iggy or Rae.

I think if you recall that before the last election the Tories were not in the lead. It took the Goodale announcement according to Nik Nanos to send the Liberals 10 points down.

I grant that Nanos did a fantastic job predicting the results of the last election yet I don't accept all his peripheral conclusions. I tend to think the issue of misuse of taxpayers' money is the main cause of the defeat of the Liberals.

The incremental approach is only for minority governments.

Only if the opposition lets them.

In any event, we again see two polls that show the main parties in a statistical tie. Wounded or not, the Liberals are keeping the Tories away from that majority.

We'll see whether Dion's carbon tax and other proposed policies resonate with voters in an election campaign, when it really counts.

[jdobbin]

Well, I can accept the Tories may be following a policy of incrementalism but as usual things aren't that simple. We can differ on precisely which policies they champion.

Andrew Cohen says it means that Tories don't say anything about how they really feel on an issue. Harper isn't into transformative politics. However, he is allowing things to move around the edges on things like the death penalty and abortion.

Furthermore, although we've never actually had referenda on capital punishment or abortion, polls have consistently shown that there never has been a strong majority for the status quo. The only poll I ever saw that purported to show that most Canadians were against capital punishment was one where the question was phrased so that it implied it was almost mandatory for even trivial cases!

I have posted a few polls including ones in this thread and last years that show Canadians are against the death penalty. The question asked was a very simple one of do you or do you not support the death penalty in Canada.

This was one poll on last years clemency issue:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=&no_ads=

A new poll indicates respondents oppose -- by a margin of 50 per cent to 43 -- the decision by the Harper government to stop seeking clemency in all cases where Canadians are sentenced to death in foreign counties.

Even someone as Libertarian as myself has had to accept that perhaps abortion has become too casual and that there's room for a better solution. Or at least that a majority of my fellow citizens might feel that way, if anyone ever bothered to ask them.

Abortion numbers are down according to the last study I saw.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/428559

OTTAWA–Better education and easier access to contraceptives have significantly cut the number of abortions sought by Canadian women, particularly teenage girls.

Statistics Canada reported yesterday that Canada's abortion rate declined by 3.2 per cent overall in 2005, with abortions among teens dropping by almost 6 per cent.

A lot of those on the right wing are opposed to abortion but they are also opposed to making birth control and education available to those who need it.

I'm just saying that you seem to be assuming that Harper's Tories want to incrementally change such laws against the will of the majority of the people. If we had a true referendum for capital punishment as an option in cases "beyond all reasonable doubt" like a Charles Ng or a Paul Bernardo it might carry by majority!

On the issue of clemency for the Canadian sentenced in the U.S, I think Canadians were well aware that the guy was a monster. However, Canadians are opposed to the death penalty.

I know some people are referendums are democratic but so is debate and free votes in the House of Commons. We have had two free votes on the death penalty in Canada and the death penalty was rejected. The Harper Tories are now frittering away at the edges.

Likewise, if abortion was strictly enforced as only available for the 1st trimester or restricted for a woman who repeatedly uses abortion instead of birth control it might not satisfy the bible thumping crowd but it may garner majority support overall.

I have no idea of the number of women who repeatedly get abortions but the number can't be huge. I'll bet if you asked if a woman who get repeated abortions should be allowed to have children, you might get a majority who say no.

Whatever, even if you're correct in your suspicions I can't see your two examples being first on their agenda for anyone but a Vic Toews.

On the issue of clemency, it was a majority of Tories who rejected it. It wasn't just one guy. I'm of the opinion that if Canada rejects the death penalty, it is rejected for all Canadians whereever they are.

I think a Triple E Senate and a return of provincial powers might be more important to the Tories. Time will tell.

Can't get the issue done without opening the Constitution. I suspect Quebec will reject any change and they may go to court (something Harper seems to understand) to make their concerns known.

It looks like Dion is not likely to knock Harper out in the next election and a Tory majority might be a struggle but far more likely than even a minority for Dion.

I have said since 2006 that I suspect the Tories will win again. I have heard a lot of boisterous Tories says a majority is a walk in the park but the Liberals have held them back from getting into majority territory.

[jdobbin]

Build a team?? With who? C'mon dobbin, you know very well this guy is toast. The next Liberal team will be built by either Iggy or Rae.

So you think Dion is gone before the election?

Even Dion and Rae's people now realize that if they want to have any party to lead later on that they can't let Dion go down in flames. They have already started to rally to eliminate debt and to get read for the election. It will have to be a team effort to be able to hold the Tories from getting a majority.

I grant that Nanos did a fantastic job predicting the results of the last election yet I don't accept all his peripheral conclusions. I tend to think the issue of misuse of taxpayers' money is the main cause of the defeat of the Liberals.

Really. And yet all the polls including Nanos showed the Liberals falling 10 points after the announcement on Goodale.

Imagine a similar thing happening to the Tories in an election. For example, a raid on their offices. The party would drop immediately. Would you accept if said that people just didn't like Harper or would you point to the raid?

Only if the opposition lets them.

Quite true. Harper ought to know about that himself when he allowed 19 confidence votes to pass against Martin.

We'll see whether Dion's carbon tax and other proposed policies resonate with voters in an election campaign, when it really counts.

We'll see if people accept Harper's green plan which the Globe and Mail experts said will probably result in a 40 cent gas increase.

[Wild Bill]

We have had two free votes on the death penalty in Canada and the death penalty was rejected. The Harper Tories are now frittering away at the edges.

I watched those votes and they didn't look too "free" to me! Particularly Mulroney's vote. He was flagrantly running behind the curtains telling his MPs that they'd better vote against a return of the death penalty.

I wouldn't trust a "free" vote from any party! I'd much rather see the question put on a ballot as a referendum. I've never understood how someone can call themselves a democrat if they're not willing to abide by the majority when it goes against their own personal wishes. Otherwise they're mere elitists, by definition.

Which I guess would include me! As one of Robert Heinlein's "rational anarchists".

[jdobbin]

I watched those votes and they didn't look too "free" to me! Particularly Mulroney's vote. He was flagrantly running behind the curtains telling his MPs that they'd better vote against a return of the death penalty.

I never read that. Do you have a link for that? I don't like Mulroney but on certain issues I think he did a good job.

I wouldn't trust a "free" vote from any party! I'd much rather see the question put on a ballot as a referendum. I've never understood how someone can call themselves a democrat if they're not willing to abide by the majority when it goes against their own personal wishes. Otherwise they're mere elitists, by definition.

Which I guess would include me! As one of Robert Heinlein's "rational anarchists".

I know some people would like referendums on every issue. At some point though binding propositions end up contradicting each other and they end up hamstringing the government.

Harper himself has said he doesn't want to follow the tyranny of the majority.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Angus Reid.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/448786

Almost 70 per cent of Canadians are keen to see that debate happen, according to the Toronto Star/Angus Reid poll released yesterday.

The poll also says:

The poll found two-thirds of Canadians think a carbon tax will encourage more environmentally responsible behaviour, suggesting that the public might be receptive to the Liberal concept.

But first, Dion is going to have to explain better his proposal to curb greenhouse gas emissions. A majority of Ontario residents say they're in the dark about the party's proposed carbon tax.

And the full poll shows the Liberals gaining ground.

http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pag....06.25_ARPW.pdf

The Tories are at 33% and the Liberals at 30%.

Edited June 25, 2008 by jdobbin