Canadian Political Polls

[Bryan]

So, who was most accurate then?

Angus Reid was really close, and they are claiming "victory" in their emails to people who polled for them.

Angus Reid Poll

Conservatives 37%

Liberals 27%

NDP 20%

Bloc Québécois 9%

Green Party 7%

Independent n/a

Other n/a

Final Result

Conservatives 37.63%

Liberals 26.24%

NDP 18.20%

Bloc Québécois 9.97%

Green Party 6.80%

Independent 0.65%

Other 0.51%

Edited October 16, 2008 by Bryan

[Vancouver King]

So, who was most accurate then?

Angus Reid was really close, and they are claiming "victory" in their emails to people who polled for them.

Angus Reid Poll

Conservatives 37%

Liberals 27%

NDP 20%

Bloc Québécois 9%

Green Party 7%

Independent n/a

Other n/a

Final Result

Conservatives 37.63%

Liberals 26.24%

NDP 18.20%

Bloc Québécois 9.97%

Green Party 6.80%

Independent 0.65%

Other 0.51%

Angus Reid and Nanos had the distinction of being alone in conducting a poll the Sunday before election day. Both overestimated NDP support by about 2%. Can't wait for comparison including Harris-Decima, Ipsos Reid and Ekos.

The missing NDP voters can't be explained by strategic voting - did they stay home?

[Bryan]

The missing NDP voters can't be explained by strategic voting - did they stay home?

In my riding they did.

[Shakeyhands]

The missing NDP voters can't be explained by strategic voting - did they stay home?

I wonder if MikeDavid switched party affiliations?

[Vancouver King]

I wonder if MikeDavid switched party affiliations?

who?

[Shakeyhands]

who?

our resident 'fair weather' voter....

[jbg]

I've seen it on too many provincial fronts to completely discount it. We are beginning to see it in Nova Scotia now.

I still think the trend has shown where we are seeing more and more evidence that the Liberals are in trouble on the provincial and federal front. In B.C. and Quebec, the Liberal name lives on as a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives. In the rest of the three western provinces, we see the Liberals decimated. Ontario and New Brunswick have the only two viable Liberal parties in government. In Newfoundland, the Liberals are devastated.

Anything is possible including another raid on Tory headquarters but it seems unlikely.

If the Liberals perform above very low expectations, they might salvage something but it doesn't look good. The key numbers are all negative.

The PCs were killed by Mulroney's time. There are very few Red Tories or progressives left in the Conservative party now. For all intents, the PCs were mortally wounded, limped along and eventually were consumed by another party.

I think you have more faith in things than I do at the moment.

I still don't see a place for me in the NDP or the Conservative party. There is still a rump of a party where I live. If even that failed to exist, I'd likely just drop out of the political process altogether.

Having seen it in Manitoba, I think you can say we have been heading in this direction for some time. The bankruptcy will make it hard for the Liberals to run a full slate. They certainly wouldn't have the wherewithal the run a full campaign. It would probably be the end of the party.

While jdobbin's been busy googling for my posts, I've been doing other, more productive things. I had a brief moment during a "Saturday Night Live" commercial to do a quick search. This is the result of 90 seconds of effort (link):

It is looking increasingly like the

Liberals will be decimated in the election

. My prediction has been 192 seats for the Tories and the latest polls show the Tories in majority territory.

Financially, the Liberals are crippled and I

foresee bankruptcy

after the election. I don't think they will be a party within 10 years and likely absorption into other parties. We will probably see a more stark left/right dynamic.

Not sure if I'd like that scenario and if it did happen,

I might just drop out of the political process

. The Liberal party is near extinction in Manitoba. It is only by force of will that it continues. There was a time when there were no third party seats in the province and I can easily seeing that happening again.

While there is some cosmetic editing, this is, in substance, cross posting (link).

[jdobbin]

I've been told that a poster believes I have cross posted. I don't think I have ever copy and pasted an entire post I have right down to the font as I have seen here several times.

I do believe I made the same seat projections here, elsewhere and offline in the same week. Is it the same information? Yes. Is it a cross post? I'll leave that for others to decide. I don't believe it is. Making the same argument in a different forum for a different audience certainly isn't copying and pasting a post in its entirety. I don't think using the same types of sentences from time to time qualifies either. In this forum, I have mentioned that I would likely drop of the political process if I felt I had no choice in political selection. Can a single sentence in a slew of sentences qualify as a cross post in this forum?

If the moderator believes it is a cross post, I will accept the post's deletion. Please report the post in question for a moderator's assessment. If someone believes this is a gross violation requiring banning, please report that as well. I will accept that decision too.

Let's hope the complainant accepts the moderator's view on their own posts and accepts banning if that is the decision.

To bring this post back to the thread topic, I made a prediction based on the large Environics poll that showed all the main negative trends the Liberals faced. This was an election where the Tories should have won a massive majority. I think I made that argument here and in subsequent threads until the last weeks of the election when it looks like the Bloc was recovering and the economy began to raise doubts about Harper.

[bush_cheney2004]

....While there is some cosmetic editing, this is, in substance, cross posting (link).

I agree...for someone to badger and attack other members on this issue, this example is evidence of the same behaviour in fact and spirit of "The Rules". It would seem that attacking other members after suffering an overwelming defeat at the polls is to be expected.

[jbg]

I do believe I made the same seat projections here, elsewhere and offline in the same week. Is it the same information? Yes. Is it a cross post? I'll leave that for others to decide. I don't believe it is.

"Cross posting is defined as posting the same information in more then one forum on the Internet."(link). So you admitted it. Having said that, I am far more interested in a civil discourse with one whose ideas I disagree with strenuously, but I have previously respected both as a friend and a friend and respecter of Winnipeg's Jewish community. There is no doubt that both of us have technically cross-posted. I believe that the policy behind the rule is not to import feuds from one forum to another. A good example is that a number of feuds from the defunct CBC board (link) were carried over to a variety of boards, including the now defunct www.talkon.ca , www.freecbc.ca and other boards. Most of my "cross-posts" have been reflective personal posts that are rarely responded to. I just don't see the harm.

Let's hope the complainant accepts the moderator's view on their own posts and accepts banning if that is the decision.

I don't think either of us is rationally fodder for banning unless you decide to make management's life totally miserable towards that end.

To bring this post back to the thread topic, I made a prediction based on the large Environics poll that showed all the main negative trends the Liberals faced. This was an election where the Tories should have won a massive majority. I think I made that argument here and in subsequent threads until the last weeks of the election when it looks like the Bloc was recovering and the economy began to raise doubts about Harper.

I think your predictions were a modfied version of "Harper-scary". That being said, the perfect storm on Wall Street is definitely an elephant in the closet.

[Jobu]

tee hee hee