Canadian Political Polls

jdobbin · January 8, 2008

How much clearer could I have been? There's no answer for me to give. I see no correlation between Canadian and American politics so I do not select one American party over another.
When you use the expression "heh" you're supposed to follow it with a question mark like "heh?" or it loses its connotation and effect.

Ah, but it does seem for a few of the right wing here in these forums support for the Republicans and Harper goes hand in hand. Sorry, but that is the correlation I've seen here. It is why I thought the 23% of Tory supporters who support Republicans seems to post here.

I don't think I meant the remark as question. Thanks again though.

Edited January 8, 2008 by jdobbin

BubberMiley · January 8, 2008

MB, your usage of "heh?" is the correct usage. You and I know that. A little bit of Canadiana...

Don't make things up. The Oxford Canadian defines "eh" as Canadian: "ascertaining the comprehension, continued interest, agreement, etc. of the person or persons addressed (it's way out in the suburbs, eh, so I can't get there by bike).

And it is never, ever correct to use it without preceding it with a comma.

Any other incorrect authorities on words and grammar are hereby warned.

Edited January 8, 2008 by BubberMiley

capricorn · January 8, 2008

Don't make things up. The Oxford Canadian defines "eh" as Canadian: "ascertaining the comprehension, continued interest, agreement, etc. of the person or persons addressed (it's way out in the suburbs, eh, so I can't get there by bike).
And it is never, ever correct to use it without preceding it with a comma.

Any other incorrect authorities on words and grammar are hereby warned.

I stand corrected BM and I thank you. I will henceforth use the correct version as per the authorized version. Our Canadian vocabulary must be protected.

Shakeyhands · January 8, 2008

Change "BRING IT ON!" to ... "Bring it on whenever, but at least wait until it warms up a little bit cuz door knocking in this weather sucks arse!"

that was funny. :lol:

jdobbin · January 9, 2008

Latest Decima poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080109/...canada_poll_col

Canada's ruling Conservatives have regained a healthy lead over the opposition Liberals but still do not have enough public support to gain a parliamentary majority, according to a poll released on Wednesday.
The Harris-Decima survey for Canadian Press put the Conservatives at 37 percent, up seven points from a poll done by the same firm in mid-December. The Liberals were down two points to 30 percent.

Liberal leader Stephane Dion is under pressure from some of his own legislators to try to bring down the minority government of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, which was elected in late January 2006.

Dion was noncommittal when asked earlier in the day whether he planned to try to defeat Harper in Parliament and force an election.

Bruce Anderson of Harris-Decima told Canadian Press that the increase in support for the government was linked to the holiday period, when opposition parties had less chance to attack Harper. Parliament is set to resume sitting on January 28.

Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, a party needs around 40 percent of the vote to stand a good chance of winning a majority of the 308 seats in Parliament. The Conservatives currently have 125 seats.

Looks like the expect Christmas gift of not being attacked in Parliament has helped the Tories in the polls. Back to the fun January 28.

capricorn · January 9, 2008

Latest Decima poll.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080109/...canada_poll_col

Looks like the expect Christmas gift of not being attacked in Parliament has helped the Tories in the polls. Back to the fun January 28.

Yeah. I heard a Liberal say that very same thing on MDL about 15 minutes ago.

jdobbin · January 9, 2008

Yeah. I heard a Liberal say that very same thing on MDL about 15 minutes ago.

Really, I don't get CTV News. Who stole my line? I should be getting a royalty check.

capricorn · January 9, 2008

Really, I don't get CTV News. Who stole my line? I should be getting a royalty check.

If you don't get the channel, how did you know what MDL stands for and that it airs on CTV News?

jdobbin · January 10, 2008

If you don't get the channel, how did you know what MDL stands for and that it airs on CTV News?

I do get CTV and see Mike Duffy when he appears in election coverage and when he used to host Question Period. I know his show MDL from that but have never seen it. I don't get CTV Newsnet.

Edited January 10, 2008 by jdobbin

jbg · January 10, 2008

Seeing as Harper has lost 25% of his support in the past few weeks, going from 40 to 30 in the polls, I have to agree.

Not so fast (link to article showing rise to 37%). It seems that the Liberals are still a bit gunshy about tanking the government (link), even based on the 30% figure.

Out of curiousity, what was wrong with this previous very similar topic (link), other than the fact that it was quiet after Christmas?

socred · January 10, 2008

I do not believe in Party politics, so I truly do not support any political party.

However; if people think that Stephan Dion is going to keep Stephen Harper from a majority government, then I want whatever it is that you're smoking. :blink:

jdobbin · January 10, 2008

I do not believe in Party politics, so I truly do not support any political party.
However; if people think that Stephan Dion is going to keep Stephen Harper from a majority government, then I want whatever it is that you're smoking.

Women are keeping Harper from a majority. The breakdowns keep showing men are more supportive of Harper and women are less likely to vote for him. I don't see women friendly policies on daycare and health to change those numbers.

capricorn · January 10, 2008

Women are keeping Harper from a majority. The breakdowns keep showing men are more supportive of Harper and women are less likely to vote for him.

The Conservatives are now at 37% in the polls. I think maybe one or two women may be in the 7% increase in their support.

I don't see women friendly policies on daycare and health to change those numbers.

Are you saying that daycare and health are strictly women's issues and men have no stake in those issues?

Shakeyhands · January 10, 2008

The Conservatives are now at 37% in the polls. I think maybe one or two women may be in the 7% increase in their support.

Wow, interesting comments in the article below.

Bruce Anderson says governments tend to do better when Parliament is not sitting and they're not facing daily attacks from opposition parties that wind up generating news coverage.
"That's probably true for many governments if we went back over time," Anderson said.

"When they're in the House of Commons, when they're debating the issues of the day, there's a better chance that they're going to be on the defensive rather than talking up their agenda."

Hmmmm......

The prime minister's spokespeople noted that while Harper may not have been slugging it out in Parliament, he has been very visible over the last month.
He did a slew of year-end interviews in December. Then he heralded his government's one-point cut in the GST for Jan. 1.

And it seems like the swing has swung the other way again on the election threats...

Dion's non-committal responses were in stark contrast to his apparent eagerness in December for an election early in 2008. At that time, he appeared to be setting the stage for a winter or spring election, warning that Liberals, who abstained on confidence matters throughout the fall, would not continue to prop up the government for much longer.

I look forward to the return of the MP's to the House and seeing what effect the Mulroney and Chalk River to do's have....

http://www.thestar.com/News/article/292494

jdobbin · January 10, 2008

The Conservatives are now at 37% in the polls. I think maybe one or two women may be in the 7% increase in their support.
Are you saying that daycare and health are strictly women's issues and men have no stake in those issues?

Oh, I'm sure there are a few women that are in that 37%. However, every pollster from Decima to Ipsos have reported that women are just not supporting the Tories in sufficient numbers to get them over 40% in the polls and stay there.

Healthcare has consistently rated higher for women than men in the last two years. Daycare has been a top issue as well. Any woman who actually works and uses daycare is well aware of how the Tory plan has failed.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.ht...670&k=16669

When it comes to the top issue facing the country, men and women agree: it's the environment, stupid. According to a Ipsos poll last month, 28 per cent of men believe that Canadian leaders should focus on the environment, compared with 29 per cent of women.
Beyond that, men and women's priorities diverge. Both genders agree that health care is the second most important issue facing the country, but a much larger 27 per cent of women consider it key, compared with only 18 per cent of men.

Education and poverty ranked as the third and fourth most important issues for women. For men, it was the economy and military defence.

"Women tend to not to be as interested in the big-P political-power issues. For them politics isn't necessarily about the cut and thrust of party politics or big-dollar economics or relationships among states," said Bricker. "They tend to be focused more locally; they tend to be more interested in things that affect them and their families."

capricorn · January 10, 2008

Wow, interesting comments in the article below.
Hmmmm......

From your link.

Bruce Anderson says governments tend to do better when Parliament is not sitting and they're not facing daily attacks from opposition parties that wind up generating news coverage.

"That's probably true for many governments if we went back over time," Anderson said.

"When they're in the House of Commons, when they're debating the issues of the day, there's a better chance that they're going to be on the defensive rather than talking up their agenda."

That's actually very good. That means that in an election campaign when the House is not sitting, the Conservatives can look forward to healthy polling numbers.

With this drop in the polls, I wonder if Dion will stay gun-shy and vote with the government come budget time.

capricorn · January 10, 2008

Healthcare has consistently rated higher for women than men in the last two years. Daycare has been a top issue as well. Any woman who actually works and uses daycare is well aware of how the Tory plan has failed.

Does your message also come in 33 and 78 rpm, cassette and CD versions as well?

Michael Bluth · January 10, 2008

That's actually very good. That means that in an election campaign when the House is not sitting, the Conservatives can look forward to healthy polling numbers.
With this drop in the polls, I wonder if Dion will stay gun-shy and vote with the government come budget time.

When it comes down to it the next election will be decided on the campaign trail.

That is why I hold out hope for a Conservative majority. Harper has proven to be a strong campaigner.

The party scripted most of the campaign last time around and Harper did very well when he was scripted.

The few occasions he went off message likely cost him a stronger minority.

The next election will probably be the legal minimum five weeks. The party will script the entire five weeks. No redneck eruptions. Thanks for retiring Myron.

Dion vs. Harper on the campaign trail? Harper wins hands down....

Does your message also come in 33 and 78 rpm, cassette and CD versions as well?

I doubt the LPoC has the money to take advantage of modern technology. :lol:

Edited January 10, 2008 by Michael Bluth

jdobbin · January 10, 2008

Does your message also come in 33 and 78 rpm, cassette and CD versions as well?

I'm sure the message will come in loud and clear after the next election and the Tories still fail to deliver a majority.

M.Dancer · January 10, 2008

.
Healthcare has consistently rated higher for women than men in the last two years. Daycare has been a top issue as well. Any woman who actually works and uses daycare is well aware of how the Tory plan has failed.

No don't get me wrong, I think the $100 a month is laughable. It's done nothing to alleviate the daycare shortage and goes to people who need and don't need daycare.

But I will give this to Harper. It was part of his plan and he did it while the liberals made promises and never came through. The liberal had their plan and they had time to enact it. Instead it got dusty and moldy. I'm sure had Martin remained in power we would still be waiting for the daycare promise to be kept. And as a parent with a child in daycare, I value a promise kept over one I have no confidence in. l don't value a Liberal promise more than the paper it's written on. Especially seeing the ink is invariably of the disappearing variety

Michael Bluth · January 10, 2008

And as a parent with a child in daycare, I value a promise kept over one I have no confidence in. l don't value a Liberal promise more than the paper it's written on. Especially seeing the ink is invariably of the disappearing variety

Almost all people value a promise kept.

The Conservatives don't need 100% of the vote.

37 or 38% gets them a majority if things break properly for them.

The polllsters and Liberal booster here continually arguing about 40% as a magic barrier are helping the level. It leaves those people in the 36 to 39.9% of support for the Conservatives a chance to get comfortable with them before having to commit to a majority.

Look out majority October '09.

jdobbin · January 10, 2008

No don't get me wrong, I think the $100 a month is laughable. It's done nothing to alleviate the daycare shortage and goes to people who need and don't need daycare.
But I will give this to Harper. It was part of his plan and he did it while the liberals made promises and never came through. The liberal had their plan and they had time to enact it. Instead it got dusty and moldy. I'm sure had Martin remained in power we would still be waiting for the daycare promise to be kept. And as a parent with a child in daycare, I value a promise kept over one I have no confidence in. l don't value a Liberal promise more than the paper it's written on. Especially seeing the ink is invariably of the disappearing variety

Daycare spaces were being created by the Liberal plan. The Tories kept the Liberal promise in place for a year and 7000 new spaces received seed money to be built in Ontario alone. Now, with the Tories in power, daycares are losing their funding and no new spaces are being created. Even the Tories admit their plan is a failure.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2007/09...4528399-cp.html

A much-touted promise by the federal Conservatives to create 125,000 new child-care spaces may not be doable, suggests Social Development Minister Monte Solberg.
The Conservatives have been slammed by critics who say the government's approach won't create nearly that many spaces over five years.

"We have to be realistic," Solberg said Wednesday when asked if an election vow made 18 months ago can be kept.

He then firmly passed the buck to his provincial cousins.

And then Solberg outrageously goes on to claim spaces created from the money the Liberal program put in place. I guess this is not much different than when the Tories tried to claim Liberal tax cuts as theirs and were exposed by the Canadian Taxpayer's Federation.

That said, Solberg cited new plans for 7,000 spaces in Ontario, 1,250 in Manitoba, 500 in Saskatchewan and 750 in New Brunswick.
"I would argue that a lot of that had to do with the fact that they got extra support from us," he said.

Liberal MP and child-care critic Ruby Dhalla scoffed at that idea.

"I think Minister Solberg is forgetting that any spaces created are thanks to money that was booked and committed under the Liberals. Not a single new space has been created under this government."

Critics say stressed-out parents in many parts of Canada face a tough choice - stay home, or place their kids in low-quality care.

The Conservatives scrapped Liberal plans for a national early learning system in favour of increased family benefits and scaled-back funding for new spaces.

Parents are also receiving $1,200 a year (before taxes) for each child under the age of six.

That move was applauded by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and parents who want more cash directly in their pockets.

But NDP child-care critic Olivia Chow says other families are caught in a crossfire of political finger pointing between municipalities, provinces and Ottawa.

She said she hears from parents every day who are desperate for care they can afford: "They can't work. There are horror stories."

Also missing is any federal legislation to ensure provinces spend child-care money on high-quality, accessible programs, Chow said.

She cited long reporting delays from provincial officials - when they report at all - to account for how more than $2 billion in child-care funds was spent in the last three years.

"They do report," Solberg said. "I don't disagree there are concerns about how late some of them are. And I've written to them regarding that."

Still, Solberg has not threatened to withhold cash from provinces that are late to prove they spent it as intended by Ottawa.

"I don't believe in that... I think they understand it's in everyone's interest to be transparent about these things."

Martha Friendly, executive director of the Childcare Resource and Research Unit, has lost her $250,000 budget since the Conservatives came to power.

Edited January 10, 2008 by jdobbin

Michael Bluth · January 10, 2008

Even the Tories admit their plan is a failure.

No evidence or support for that assertion.

Could it be another in a long, long line of misrepresentations? :rolleyes:

jdobbin · January 10, 2008

That's actually very good. That means that in an election campaign when the House is not sitting, the Conservatives can look forward to healthy polling numbers.
With this drop in the polls, I wonder if Dion will stay gun-shy and vote with the government come budget time.

I think you misread what the pollster said. He said when Parliament is not in session, there are few times for the media and the Opposition to question the government on what they are doing. That is certainly not going to be the case in an election.

It is why notoriously media shy Harper has been trying to court the media in the last weeks. Unfortunately, in an election Harper needs the media and can't avoid them like he'd like to.