Will China Fall ?

[Michael Hardner]

Anti-government actions in China are becoming bolder, and getting more coverage too.

News

Article

The middle class is only 100 million (only !) while 900 million are outside the 'new China'.

[marcinmoka]

Dunno.

But if Jintao's tough talk of opening up the party to 'popular' (by Chinese, not Occidental standards of course) input becomes a reality, they may just have a crack at averting the unrest which is an even more pressing threat.

That, and reevaluating, if not openly floating the Renmnibi to curb food import based inflationary pressures (the trade off being greater discontent amongst the industrial centers) would be a step in the right direction.

Edited October 25, 2007 by marcinmoka

[ScottSA]

Anti-government actions in China are becoming bolder, and getting more coverage too.

News

Article

The middle class is only 100 million (only !) while 900 million are outside the 'new China'.

If the Chinese government falls, it will have more to do with economics; either galloping inflation or recession.

Edited October 25, 2007 by ScottSA

[Michael Hardner]

Economics is part of it. The peasant class has seen their fortunes fall, and the corrupt communist party can't help them.

[ScottSA]

Economics is part of it. The peasant class has seen their fortunes fall, and the corrupt communist party can't help them.

That's a couple of rather overbroad statements methinks when talking about a billion or two people encompassing numerous regions. No doubt there are areas of China where it's scarcely noted that anything has changed since the Mongolian invasions.

[Michael Hardner]

Maybe. Except that it's one party rule, so if the core is corrupt, chances are that there are problems everywhere in the regions. It's hard to tell.

Read the article.

[jbg]

Anti-government actions in China are becoming bolder, and getting more coverage too.

News

ArticleThe middle class is only 100 million (only !) while 900 million are outside the 'new China'.

If the Chinese government falls, it will have more to do with economics; either galloping inflation or recession.

Economics is part of it. The peasant class has seen their fortunes fall, and the corrupt communist party can't help them.

Maybe. Except that it's one party rule, so if the core is corrupt, chances are that there are problems everywhere in the regions. It's hard to tell.

My view of history and politics is essentially "the more things change the more they remain the same" or "Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose". China, throughout known history (with a few minor breaks such as the Sun Yat Sen era) has been an oligarchy/absolute rule country. The Communists are an update from the Mandarin Empire, and not much has changed. There is still gross corruption, great dispartities in wealth, a miniscule middle class, and strict rule from the top. The labels are different but the result is the same. The only way that dissatisfaction can be expressed is through violence. Because of this, the new rulers are often a copy of the old ones.

Similarly, the English-speaking world, with rare breaks such as the Cromwellian dictatorship, has usually been democratic, in a manner that preserves the perquisites of the business class. This is true whether one is talking about the UK, US, Canada, or Australia. Populist governments (Socred and in the US William Jennings Bryan come to mind) rarely are elected or, if elected, gain much traction. "Socialism" similarly goes nowhere. Witness the rapid moderation in British Labour after their first spell of government under Clement Atlee (and almost all nationalizations reversed), the fluctuation of Canada's NDP between 15 and 30 MP's, and the US's almost jocular record for socialists.

Continental Europe is still stuck in medieval statism or corporatism, relabled, for sake of modernity, as "socialism". Rep-by-prop ensures a succession of similar and nondescript coalition governments that change little and basically shut out the public (France, an exception to this system, swings wildly between Gaullism/empire and revolutionary chaos of the French Revolution or the Fourth Republic).

Returning to China, I do not see China emerging as a 21st Century power. I see an implosion, followed by return to classic xenophobia. Hopefully Bernake and successors are as skillful in avoiding this turning into a worldwide depression banana peel ¹.

¹Alfred Kahn, a distinguished former Cornell University professor, was recruited by Jimmy Carter first to deregulate the airline industry (one of his few successes) and then he was put in charge of roping in the growing economic chaos that unseated Carter, along with Iran. He warned that the US was heading for a deep, deep depression under then-current policies. When Carter chided him on this, he corrected himself and said that the US was heading for a deep, deep banana.

[August1991]

That's a couple of rather overbroad statements methinks when talking about a billion or two people encompassing numerous regions. No doubt there are areas of China where it's scarcely noted that anything has changed since the Mongolian invasions.

I concur.

IMV, the Chinese government has chosen to imitate Lee Kwan Yew and a modern version of Confucianism. Perhaps at some point in the future, there will be a version of democracy such as Taiwan now has.

More Chinese are better off now than at any time in Chinese history. Most Chinese can now have hope.

My view of history and politics is essentially "the more things change the more they remain the same" or "Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose". China, throughout known history (with a few minor breaks such as the Sun Yat Sen era) has been an oligarchy/absolute rule country. The Communists are an update from the Mandarin Empire, and not much has changed. There is still gross corruption, great dispartities in wealth, a miniscule middle class, and strict rule from the top. The labels are different but the result is the same. The only way that dissatisfaction can be expressed is through violence. Because of this, the new rulers are often a copy of the old ones.

Similarly, the English-speaking world, with rare breaks such as the Cromwellian dictatorship...

This argument is self-serving. For example, in the Renaissance, the place to be was not England.

It is the future differences that are of interest. The easiest prediction is to say that things will stay as they are.

[sunsettommy]

However, the confidence many Western commentators have that these protests do not contain the seeds of co-ordinated mutiny is of little comfort to the Chinese leadership, which takes this possibility much more seriously. It is true that there is no ready-made and credible political alternative to the CCP at the moment. The regime, well versed in the art of remaining in power by eliminating alternatives and controlling the apparatus of coercion (rather than enhancing legitimacy and service delivery), has seen to that.

With no viable alternative to the existing power.Any revolution will fizzle due to a lack of a clear goal to attain and even die for.

It is not surprising that there are restless people in China,Iran,Russia and other places where below quality government is in power.

[jbg]

It is not surprising that there are restless people in China,Iran,Russia and other places where below quality government is in power.

I would say the best self-government occurs in Spanish- and Arabic-speaking lands.

[sunsettommy]

I would say the best self-government occurs in Spanish- and Arabic-speaking lands.

[jbg]

IMV, the Chinese government has chosen to imitate Lee Kwan Yew and a modern version of Confucianism. Perhaps at some point in the future, there will be a version of democracy such as Taiwan now has.

More Chinese are better off now than at any time in Chinese history. Most Chinese can now have hope.

That's an over-optimistic view, and not one in line with Chinese history. Given the vast linguistic and cultural differences across the country, any loosening would cause the place to blow, the way Iraq did after Hussein's ouster. Thus, I see no way around the "centralization trap" I described in my lengthy post above.