Polls

[Leafless]

Isn't it nice to know the Conservatives have enough support to win a majority as indicated by a poll conducted by Ipsos-Reid, showing the Conservatives holding steady at 40%.

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArtic...OLITICS-COL.XML

But this same poll indicates that the majority of Canadians do not want an election now.

And this is where the problem lies.

What could be the possible reason for the AVERAGE Canadian to determine that they do not want an election now, as the average Canadian would not be able to compute properly the proper reasons to determine this, as there really are none outside of the fact the Liberals, most likely, are going to lose.

My gut feeling is this is the workings of the biased Liberal media trying to buy time for the Liberals to try to recoup to regain some type of political momentum, in order to try to gain political advantage over the Conservatives.

I think the media is out of order in an obvious attempt to try to stall elections to give liberals some time to recover.

Thoughts.

Edited October 20, 2007 by Leafless

[old_bold&cold]

Isn't it nice to know the Conservatives have enough support to win a majority as indicated by a poll conducted by Ipsos-Reid, showing the Conservatives holding steady at 40%.

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArtic...OLITICS-COL.XML

But this same poll indicates that the majority of Canadians do not want an election now.

And this is where the problem lies.

What could be the possible reason for the AVERAGE Canadian to determine that they do not want an election now, as the average Canadian would not be able to compute properly the proper reasons to determine this, as there really are none outside of the fact the Liberals, most likely, are going to lose.

My gut feeling is this is the workings of the biased Liberal media trying to buy time for the Liberals to try to recoup to regain some type of political momentum, in order to try to gain political advantage over the Conservatives.

I think the media is out of order in an obvious attempt to try to stall elections to give liberals some time to recover.

Thoughts.

You will see the playing with polls right here on our forums. JD has always in the past posted polls especially when it was against the CPC. Here now when polls find CPC in 40% territory you will notice he posts polls showing them still at 36%. That is propably just his own personal way to show he really is a liberal supportter, even to the tune where he will do his own poll selections for his own party interests. That is nothing new, but it does show that yes polls are being manipulated all the time.

I still say that Harper and the CPC may also be using a kind of manipulation, to show them lower then their internal polls have them. Mostly because if the true story was shown before the speech debate, there would be absolutely no way the Liberals would have even hinted at bringing down the government. Which I do feel is something that Harper had wished for. But he did not get his wish and we go on from there.

Even though the Liberals used to portray themselves as the natural governing party, it really has to make one wonder how anyone, who is thinking or following polictics at all, would support them, when they shoot themslves in the foot almost daily. The polls were stalled for some time because people were not folowing politics, and had other things that were more pressing in their minds. But with things being what they are lately, I think that more and more are taking a look and just can not compell themselves to think liberal anymore. I believe that is why the polls have being changing, and I think the liberal friendly media has done all it can to delay what seems inevitable, and show that the liberals are dying a slow death. I think that this migration away from them will first off benefit CPC, then the NDP and we may see a seat or two go green this time, but that in itself, makes me shutter, to think it has gone this far.

It will not matter who is the next liberal leader, as he will have baggage and will not get things handed to him, but rather will have to build his own success from scratch, and that is something the Liberal party does not seem to have anyone who fits that, in the wings.

Polls being what they will, I think that once the media has been weaned off the liberal tit, they will have to move to a more nuetral position and polls will then be more telling then they are today.

[Michael Bluth]

But this same poll indicates that the majority of Canadians do not want an election now.

And this is where the problem lies.

What could be the possible reason for the AVERAGE Canadian to determine that they do not want an election now, as the average Canadian would not be able to compute properly the proper reasons to determine this, as there really are none outside of the fact the Liberals, most likely, are going to lose.

My gut feeling is this is the workings of the biased Liberal media trying to buy time for the Liberals to try to recoup to regain some type of political momentum, in order to try to gain political advantage over the Conservatives.

I think the media is out of order in an obvious attempt to try to stall elections to give liberals some time to recover.

Thoughts.

I think that's a little too conspiratorial.

It's a natural question to ask during a minority government. At almost all times the general public is going to answer they don't want an election unless there is something major like Adscam. So it really just adds filler to any story.

This is a good, honest government. No major scandals. No dithering. Why go through the expense of an election?

That doesn't mean the public will "punish" anybody for forcing an election.

Besides, now that Dion has shown that he'll accept anything to avoid an eleciton we'll probably end up going fall of '09 per the legislation.

[bk59]

What could be the possible reason for the AVERAGE Canadian to determine that they do not want an election now, as the average Canadian would not be able to compute properly the proper reasons to determine this, as there really are none outside of the fact the Liberals, most likely, are going to lose.

My gut feeling is this is the workings of the biased Liberal media trying to buy time for the Liberals to try to recoup to regain some type of political momentum, in order to try to gain political advantage over the Conservatives.

I think the media is out of order in an obvious attempt to try to stall elections to give liberals some time to recover.

How would "the average Canadian" not "be able to compute properly" the answer to the question "Do you want an election right now?" It's a pretty simple yes or no. There are numerous reasons why people may not want an election right now. Maybe they don't want to listen to six weeks of campaigning. Maybe they think it's about time the various political parties started working together rather than constantly taking partisan shots at one another. Maybe their dog is sick and will need constant attention over the next two months.

The media is not going to be stalling anything. Each party has its own polls being conducted right now. They will know whether or not the published polls match up with their own internal polls. There is no need for conspiracy theories here.

You will see the playing with polls right here on our forums. JD has always in the past posted polls especially when it was against the CPC. Here now when polls find CPC in 40% territory you will notice he posts polls showing them still at 36%. That is propably just his own personal way to show he really is a liberal supportter, even to the tune where he will do his own poll selections for his own party interests. That is nothing new, but it does show that yes polls are being manipulated all the time.

Sort of. 40% and 36% are pretty close and two different polls taken at the same time can give those two results. This does not mean that the polls were manipulated in any way. Perhaps you should say that the manipulation happens when selecting which polls to publish. That is why I put more stock in media reports that cite multiple polls by multiple polling agencies (over the same time period).

Even though the Liberals used to portray themselves as the natural governing party, it really has to make one wonder how anyone, who is thinking or following polictics at all, would support them, when they shoot themslves in the foot almost daily.

One could have asked the same question a few years ago about the Reform party. They used to shoot themselves in the foot a lot as well. Things seem to be going much better for that crowd now. Or at least, most of them. Just because a party appears to be shooting themselves in the foot does not mean that they do not have some good policies. I don't think that I have ever found myself 100% agreeing with a party or 100% disagreeing. There are still some good things to support in the Liberal party, as there are still some good things to support in the Conservative party.

[Guest coot]

I don't think the media, biased or not, has the power to stall an election. The public doesn't want one because they coast $60 million a shot, we've already had two in the last two years, there's no guarantee the result would be any different, it's not like Harper can't govern now, and Manitoba, Quebec, Ontario, PEI, Newfoundland, and now Saskatchewan have all had elections in the past year. People are quite simply electioned out. It's time for the parties to learn how to play nice and work together.

[Moxie]

I agree with Coot, I for one am electioned out. It would be a breath of fresh air if the parties started working together to get this country on a path of forward movement. Sadly they seem content to strut like peacocks in front of the media with tripe and nonsense instead of working together for the good of Canada. As for polls I'm on a list where I agreed to get polled regularly, they are always biased towards the party paying for the poll. Beit political or a new's agency, it's rather amusing sometimes.

[Keepitsimple]

I think the reason people don't want an election is pretty simple. Most people, except for die-hard partisans, do not see any compelling reason to have one. Even though a substantial number of people may not be warm to Harper, even they don't think he's really done anything to upset the applecart.

[jdobbin]

You will see the playing with polls right here on our forums. JD has always in the past posted polls especially when it was against the CPC. Here now when polls find CPC in 40% territory you will notice he posts polls showing them still at 36%. That is propably just his own personal way to show he really is a liberal supportter, even to the tune where he will do his own poll selections for his own party interests. That is nothing new, but it does show that yes polls are being manipulated all the time.

I have posted both polls that showed the Tories were at 40%.

This one was posted hours before your post in this thread.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=261597

This one was posted last week.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=259281

There isn't a poll number that I have not posted and linked to including two that showed the Tories at 40%. It looks like it there is any manipulation going on, it is in your saying that I only post polls that I find favourable.

[Leafless]

I think that's a little too conspiratorial.

It's a natural question to ask during a minority government. At almost all times the general public is going to answer they don't want an election unless there is something major like Adscam. So it really just adds filler to any story.

This is a good, honest government. No major scandals. No dithering. Why go through the expense of an election?

I find it amazing members on this site are so trusting of media and polls when they can be used as a tool of deception, manipulation and propaganda and are in denial this is happening in Canada.

The CIA’s annex, the Washington Post, and best patron, the late Katherine Graham, once remarked the world is a dangerous place and that democracy operates best when some details are not shared with the population. The WP and the New York Times, the lead so called ‘premier’ papers, operate similarly and are conduits of propaganda for the Powers That Be and their security apparatuses, and provide the ‘copy’ for all the other press in the US. The Daily News and New York Post -- comic book versions of the news -- are dumbed down propaganda rags for the ‘common man’ with loud headlines, plenty of mindless celebrity gossip and partially naked women to distract. TV land (including PBS, C-SPAN) and radio (like NPR) mimics repetitively (through all news and Sunday talk shows) the same official fictions that are disseminated in the press. The evening news on all of the alphabet channels is eerily alike in format and content -- by design, of course.

Polls are used to fine tune messages/propaganda and are manipulated to reflect the desired public perception -- like the deliberate linkage of 9/11 and Iraq. Online CNN polls have been known to disappear after the results were not as expected -- suggesting that no matter the propaganda the public may not be buying it -- forcing the puppet meisters to recalibrate their propaganda efforts. The average citizen it is assumed will fall in line with the ‘majority’ view of a poll even though Joe Citizen has no way to confirm the poll. It is possible that the majority of people may consider that they are in the minority,.victims of the corporate media propaganda and poll manipulation, and remain silent about critical issues because of it.

http://americanendeavor.blogspot.com/2007/...erica-pt-1.html

[old_bold&cold]

I have posted both polls that showed the Tories were at 40%.

This one was posted hours before your post in this thread.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=261597

This one was posted last week.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....st&p=259281

There isn't a poll number that I have not posted and linked to including two that showed the Tories at 40%. It looks like it there is any manipulation going on, it is in your saying that I only post polls that I find favourable.

JD, I was not trying to make you a scape goat, and since as you say you posted both hours before my post, I will say sorry. But even after your post all your remarks were using the 36%, but again that is not even an issue. I was merely pointing out that people use the polls in the ways they see to benefit their own party's thinking. That is a formof manipulation. Just like the other week when I said that I believed the CPC probably are more in the 46-48% range, which was pushing the numbers towards my own party's vadvantage, you quickly responded that if those were the numbers, then they would have a very large majority, to rival most others. I did not take exception, but with things moving in the CPC favour I think that my numbers will be shown in the public polls by early December, if an elction is not call ed first. And yes I do think that Harper is using his political talents to see an election will happen soon. It will not be an open and telling way, but yes, he is wanting this to happen asap. If he goes into the spring, he will almost certainly get his majority. But I can see he is being impatient, and that is not his best side. I still support him and the policies, but yes, I can also see him overly anxiuos. That may cost him a tiny bit if he goes too far with it.

[jdobbin]

JD, I was not trying to make you a scape goat, and since as you say you posted both hours before my post, I will say sorry. But even after your post all your remarks were using the 36%, but again that is not even an issue. I was merely pointing out that people use the polls in the ways they see to benefit their own party's thinking. That is a formof manipulation. Just like the other week when I said that I believed the CPC probably are more in the 46-48% range, which was pushing the numbers towards my own party's vadvantage, you quickly responded that if those were the numbers, then they would have a very large majority, to rival most others.

I did not mention 36% in any of the polls where Ipsos indicated a 40% lead. Not one.

I posted Strategic Counsel's poll where the Tories were listed at 35%. I also posted Unimarketing's poll where the Tories were listed at 36%. Those are the numbers they posted. The links are there and all in the same thread.

In regards to the first Ipsos poll, I said that 40% in the polls with more than a 11% over the next party is the exact numbers for a majority in Canada.

I have never seen a 46%-48% rating for a national party in Canada in the last number of decades. Such numbers, given our first past the post system, would probably result in seat numbers approaching 300.

[Topaz]

There is a way to manipulated the polls. For those who want Harper out can say when asked by one of the polls , who would you vote for or who do you think makes a better PM, is to give their vote for Harper. Then when an election was called Harper thinking he has an edge , would find out they he didn't. For those say that really doesn't happen I know a couple people that were called and said just that. So when the politicians say they don't read anything into the polls , they may be right to do so!

[Leafless]

There is a way to manipulated the polls. For those who want Harper out can say when asked by one of the polls , who would you vote for or who do you think makes a better PM, is to give their vote for Harper. Then when an election was called Harper thinking he has an edge , would find out they he didn't. For those say that really doesn't happen I know a couple people that were called and said just that. So when the politicians say they don't read anything into the polls , they may be right to do so!

LOL, I doubt if the electorate would have any success manipulating polls as the dirty work could already be carried out in the wording of the poll itself by corporate media propaganda and poll manipulation.

If the originators of the poll don't like the results, that poll simply will never be made public and only replaced with another poll of different wording to obtain the desired results.

Edited October 21, 2007 by Leafless

[Shakeyhands]

There is a way to manipulated the polls. For those who want Harper out can say when asked by one of the polls , who would you vote for or who do you think makes a better PM, is to give their vote for Harper. Then when an election was called Harper thinking he has an edge , would find out they he didn't. For those say that really doesn't happen I know a couple people that were called and said just that. So when the politicians say they don't read anything into the polls , they may be right to do so!

For fun, I always say I support the party I don't in phone polls and the like, I gotta think its more than me that does that.