BigGunner

What they meant with the question was will NDP win most number of seats, not necessarily a majority. I'd love to be proven wrong, but the NDP at best can look forward to 45-50 seats. Of course, that is record territory for the NDP but nowhere near a minority governing position, etc.. Given that the NDP only commands 17-19% of popular support and knowing where the NDP support concentrations are, it is highly unlikely that they will get any higher than 50..

Its wishful thinking, but the NDP is not going to win 156 seats in the next election. They can, however, win a large enough chunk of seats to either a) become the balace of power in a minority, or become the official opposition. Either scenario for the NDP could be considered a victory considering their dismal electoral results since 1993.

Hey whats the deal with the smart ass responses, why dont you tell us what you mean by people being surprised by the election results, what a NDP majority gov, Conservative majority gov. By the way I think that the NDP would move all of us more towards serfdom, than freedom. Thankyou for your opinion, it is certainly well established that you are opposed to anything liberal or progressive...that is your democratic right i suppose.. Not even NDPers are assuming that the NDP will win a majority government, but most or all of the pundits are suggesting however that the liberals will likely lose their majority...and they will lose seats to all of the opposition parties.

BRING IT ON!!!

It is mathematically possible to win government without a single seat in Quebec, but that policy is about as wise as John Kerry attempting to bank on electoral victory without any support from the southern states...its possible, but its not helpful. The last time the PC's won office, they had a large caucus from Quebec, in fact they won a majority of its seats in 1984. The reality is that if the CPC wants to win government, they will need to elect Quebec MP's. With the CPC polling in 4th place behind the NDP, that doesn't seem likely. By this point, most Canadians had assumed that Stephen Harper was going to win the leadership of the CPC and were aligning their support accordingly. The final results were not a suprise to anyone. The CPC will have to address some of the major issue gaps between the party, its voting record, vs. the majority of Canadian opinion.

BigGunner, you can't compare (by implying a trend up or down), the results of an election with a poll. Responding to a pollster is not the same as putting the x on a ballot. While I appreciate your message, I do not fully agree. When pollsters pegged the BC NDP at the high teens to low 20's in popular support in the 2001 BC election, that is almost exactly what they got. Scientific polling can be somewhat accurate. The trend that I was implying is that the united conservative party is faring poorly compared to what one might expect considering the combined 37% vote share of 2000. Since that magic number was the rallying cry of conservative merger proponents, its a valid argument to make today. Todays recent polling assumed that Harper would be the leader of the party, and it shows a 26% score for the conservatives. The Alliance itself scored 25% in the 2000 election. The merger has failed to do two things. 1. Bring all conservatives true conservatives under one roof. 2. Draw centre-right support from the Liberals. The merger has done the following though. 1. Scare the anti-establishment voters away from the conservatives (into the NDP in the west) 2. Stunt any potential growth opportunities in Quebec (the 2nd largest province with 75 seats...a necessity for winning government).

Harper can dish it out but he can not take it. He accused Belinda of bein chicken for not debating. Why is Harper afraid to debate the NDP leader Jack Layton? I think We know the answer to that. Harper should be in provincial politics. This is from a jackass whose party ran "no more prime ministers from Quebec" ad on TV? This is hypocritical by anyones definition...

Cuba of the north.....that is priceless.. You are very skilled at tossing rabid insults rather than engaging in meaningful debate. Perhaps you could share with the rest of us how many people have been locked up or excecuted for 'political dissent' by NDP governments? None? Thats right! But conservative party idols, the Republicans in America have tens of thousands of arabic looking prisoners locked up and beaten, held without trial, access to lawyers, or any human rights in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.. Oh, I get it. America is the Cuba of the North - where opposing the government's agenda can endanger your life.

2000 election... NDP 11% PC plus Alliance 37% 2004 (latest Ipsos-Reid) NDP 17% - gain of 6 points Conservatives 26% - loss of 11 points...

We know that the NDP has the attention of the Liberals, and now it seems that the conservatives have been feeling some heat too. Stephen Harper would send Canadian troops to Iraq - only to get car bombed into coffins. A Stephen Harper government would outsource good paying manufacturing jobs to foreign countries probably faster than George Bush has. The NDP growth might be frightening to the Conservatives, but there is nothing more threatening to the very existence of this country than the potential of Stephen Harper as the PM.

The average British Columbian is more upset at the fact that the Liberals sold off the fast ferries for pennies on the dollar, than the ferries themselves. TechBC was a new university built by the NDP that the liberals closed. They gave it a paint job, and are re-opening it with a new name and they are attempting to take credit for it. Speaking of taxes, I am paying more today than at any point under the NDP's term of office. What ever tax cut the liberals gave, they have taken far more from user fees and municipal offloading (increases my property taxes). And, I'm a non-smoker who drinks very rarely (read: Liberal tax hikes on alch/tobacco). Campbell's "innocence"....he's a convicted drunk driver who is losening the drinking and driving rules in BC. His government is under RCMP investigation over the sale of BC Rail (which he promised never to do), had the police raid the legislature, fired legislative aides over their connection over it.... In politics, you are guilty until proven innocent. Look at Glen Clark. Whatever calculations are used to determine have or have-not status for a province, the NDP balanced its budget with a record surplus without any assistence from a federal welfare cheque. You are right...the province is not run on air...it is run on the blood, sweat and tears of hard working British Columbians, and they have had enough from the corrupt BC Liberal party.

The BC NDP gov't ran up $13 billion in debt over ten years. They build schools, hospitals, highways, universities, and BC's population grew over a million people in that time frame. The Liberals, in less than 3 years added $10 billion in new debt, and have closed schools and hospitals, increased taxes and user fees, and passed the provinces largest budget deficits in the history of BC...this is after assuming power in 2001 with BC's largest surplus budget that the NDP left them. Campbell doesn't deserve to be defeated, he deserves to be in jail.

Ah, yes...there was a major dicrepency between provincial and federal NDP vote in 1996 (BC)/1997 (fed).. That gap was well documented by the polls at the time. The polls tell a far different story today NDP federally in BC are at almost 30% - ahead of the conservatives NDP provincially are at 42%... still a gap, but certainly more consistent than 1996/97

I'm curious about this...if it were in english, and if I didn't have to pay a subscription fee, I could read it.

Ok genius, the 36,000 workers that lost their jobs in the last month were from the retail and construction sector. Retail is famously non-union, and construction is sort of the bell-weather of the economy...when there is a boom in construction jobs, then good times are on their way. And as is the case with many sectors that were hardline union, construction is not much of a union sector anymore. The loss of 36,000 jobs in BC last month is a damning indictment of Liberal policies in BC, and marks the failure of Gordon Campbell's "Trickle Down Economics Version 2.0" theory.

Back on track.. hmm 36,000 jobs lost last month 7.9% unemployment rate $40 billion dollar debt... Schools, hospitals, womens shelters closed, tuition increased by up to 200%, minimum wage lowered by $2/h for youth, shady deals that have RCMP investigating liberal insiders.... BC is not back on track...BC is derailed, and Campbell is at the switch. Campbell doesn't deserve to be premier....he deserves to be in jail.

The largest voter migration in Canadian history was when the PC government went from 160+ seats to 2.

Federally speaking, the NDP is well ahead on Vancouver Island - which is not a traditional core support area for the Conservative party. The Reform and Alliance party nearly swept it from 93-2000 because they were the standard-bearers of the populist, anti-establisment flag. That is gone now and Jack Layton has that in his court. The last time the PC's swept the Island was in 1984 in the Mulroney landslide. In 1988, the NDP took every seat on the Island. The NDP is also ahead in its incumbent seats, plus is ahead in parts of Vancouver and the eastern suburbs. The NDP is poised to re-take Kamloops, and select other interior seats.

The Alliance party in 2000 scored its largest group of MP's from BC. Today, they are polling in third place behind the NDP. In 2000, they had 50% of the vote - whereas today it sits at 27%. In fact, the conservative party is well behind its polling numbers when it was known as alliance, all over the west. Only in Alberta are they equal today to what they scored in 2000. Conservative 'gains', if any, will be in Ontario. But there again, the NDP has recovered somewhat and is in the 15-20% range province wide, but well ahead in its target ridings. Look for conservative losses in the west to the NDP; limited conservative gains in Ontario at the expense of the Liberals; complete shut out in Quebec; conservative losses in the maritimes to both the NDP and Liberals.

Wishful thinking. How does a party that is in third place, score an absolute majority of seats? The conservatives will still do well in BC, but will be rolled back in several places. My summary.... Liberal strength: West side of Vancouver, Richmond, Delta Liberal weak: Vancouver Island, Northern BC, Okanagan NDP strength: Vancouver Island, East Vacouver, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Kootenays, North coastal area NDP weak: Fraser Valley, Northern BC, Okanagan Conservative strength: Fraser Valley, North Shore (GVRD), Okanagan, Northern BC Conservative weak: Vancouver, Burnaby, Vancouver Island My BC Prediction, Conservative 19 NDP 14 Liberal 3 Even this number is a little suspect. The Conservatives have only 27% of the vote at this point. Holding 19 seats might be impossible.

I'm confused with the conservative party. They have supposedly expanded their membership to nearly 250,000 they are on the verge of selecting Harper as leader, yet their polling numbers suggest that they will lose seats. The only party that has seen a gain in the polls since 2000 is Jack Layton's NDP. Heres a G&M article that indicates that Harper nearly has it in the bag.. click here

I can only assume that you are using the election calculator to figure your prediction. Starting with BC, the Conservatives are in third place behind the NDP. Their vote is clustered in the north and parts of the interior, and as such, will be rolled back all over the place. The Liberals get support from the wealthier parts of greater vancouver - not enough to grab 10 seats. Alberta, the liberals will be lucky to hold one seat...let alone a second. In Sask/Manitoba, the NDP will trounce all others in Manitoba, and will sweep the cities in Sask. In Ontario, while the conservatives have recovered somewhat, the Liberals are still popular. (why? i have no idea..)

Globe and Mail clipping NDP is taking serious aim at Ottawa. This high profile candidate was also courted by the Liberals.

Mine... North Liberal 2 NDP 1 Total 3 BC CPC 19 NDP 14 Liberal 3 Total 36 Alberta CPC 27 Liberal 1 Total 28 Sask/Man. NDP 14 CPC 9 Liberal 5 Total 28 Ontario Liberal 82 CPC 14 NDP 10 Total 106 Quebec BQ 44 Liberal 30 NDP 1 *(Decasse! ) Total 75 Maritimes Liberals 18 CPC 10 NDP 4 Total 32 National Liberals 141 CPC 79 NDP 44 BQ 44 ------------ Total 308 Say hello to a minority government!

Quebec is still unfamiliar territory for the NDP. They have won a seat there, it was a byelection in 1989 and they won it with well over 50% of the vote. But the polarization between the federalists under the liberals and the separatists under the bloc means that there is little room for other parties. The polls show the NDP at 8% in Quebec. It might be that they have 8% in every riding. Still, their 8% is higher than the conservatives 6%. If the NDP is to win any seat, look to Pierre Decasse. Although Jack Layton won the leadership of the party, Pierre won their hearts at the convention...and this young fella is headed places....perhaps the people of his riding will reward such a courageous character with a victory in the HOC, but it will be tough. The seat in question was a runaway victory for the BQ, and it was the home seat of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.