Hicksey Posted January 21, 2006 Report Posted January 21, 2006 Here's the source. It's a PDF file so you'll need Adobe Reader. Quote "If in passing, you never encounter anything that offends you, you are not living in a free society." - Rt. Hon. Kim Campbell - “In many respects, the government needs fewer rules, but rules that are consistently applied.” - Sheila Fraser, Former Auditor General.
geoffrey Posted January 21, 2006 Report Posted January 21, 2006 Here's the source. It's a PDF file so you'll need Adobe Reader. http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/21Jan2006Tracking.pdf - This is more on par with the other polls. Your SES poll shows a 4 point Liberal lead in Ontario, which none of the others are indictating. Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
geoffrey Posted January 21, 2006 Report Posted January 21, 2006 Apparently I hadn't looked at the polls the last few days. This shows a LPC lead in Ontario as well: http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_new...Poll(Jan20).pdf Then we have a sizeable CPC lead according to: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2948 And while there has been speculation from many of a tightening vote scenario in the crucial province of Ontario, this trend does not appear evident: The Conservatives at 38% (-2 points) have maintained a lead (now at 4 points) over the Liberals (34%, -3 points) in this province. However, rising Liberal fortunes in the city of Toronto alone, which will not produce any new seats for the Party, has perhaps been at the root of this speculation. These guys are all way out of their margins of error. I've lost faith in polling as of right now. Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
Boru Posted January 21, 2006 Report Posted January 21, 2006 Apparently I hadn't looked at the polls the last few days.This shows a LPC lead in Ontario as well: http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_new...Poll(Jan20).pdf Then we have a sizeable CPC lead according to: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2948 And while there has been speculation from many of a tightening vote scenario in the crucial province of Ontario, this trend does not appear evident: The Conservatives at 38% (-2 points) have maintained a lead (now at 4 points) over the Liberals (34%, -3 points) in this province. However, rising Liberal fortunes in the city of Toronto alone, which will not produce any new seats for the Party, has perhaps been at the root of this speculation. These guys are all way out of their margins of error. I've lost faith in polling as of right now. You have to expect that with polls. But, not only are someof thos emajor polls showing a LPC lead in Ontario, but the regional papers are showing that move as well. It's highly unlikely that the Liberals can pull off an upset, but the Conservative losses in Ontario are showing that Harper is still viewed by many as an extremist. A Conservative minority would definately be kept in check, much to the dismay of those against equality rights. Quote
geoffrey Posted January 21, 2006 Report Posted January 21, 2006 You have to expect that with polls. But, not only are someof thos emajor polls showing a LPC lead in Ontario, but the regional papers are showing that move as well. It's highly unlikely that the Liberals can pull off an upset, but the Conservative losses in Ontario are showing that Harper is still viewed by many as an extremist. A Conservative minority would definately be kept in check, much to the dismay of those against equality rights. Remember, the Conservatives are still going to gain considerable seats in Ontario from the Liberals this election. It might not be as many as last week, but they will win more than 2004. All Canadian politicans are left of centre in the big picture, the only extreme is Layton on the left. I know, I'm so dismayed that equality rights are being protected. I really would hate to be progressive and protect real equality rights instead of buying votes of every little minority group. Oh well. Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
August1991 Posted January 21, 2006 Report Posted January 21, 2006 There have been several polls published and two facts stand out in my mind: First, the lowest popular vote the Liberal Party ever received was in 1984 with 28%. In 1958, the Liberals got 33.4%. Most polls show the Liberals now around 26%-28%. (The Liberals tend to do better on election day than the polls suggest.) Second, there was a Leger poll in Quebec (2000 sample) showing BQ at 40%. There is no doubt that the BQ will be well below its result of 48.9% in June 2005. Quote
Hicksey Posted January 21, 2006 Author Report Posted January 21, 2006 I think at this point the 10-12 point lead by the three other sources listed is too generous. I think the 7 point lead shown by SES is more in line with what will happen on election day. I think province by province the MOE for most polls is too high to really take regional polling seriously. They may tell trends, but thats all IMO. Quote "If in passing, you never encounter anything that offends you, you are not living in a free society." - Rt. Hon. Kim Campbell - “In many respects, the government needs fewer rules, but rules that are consistently applied.” - Sheila Fraser, Former Auditor General.
ConservativeJoe Posted January 21, 2006 Report Posted January 21, 2006 There is no way the Liberals are closing the chasm that exists between them and the voters. Don't forget, the pollsters believe that they can pick and choose who wins elections. They have some effect, especially on those Canadians who think this is a ProLine bet, but for the most part, people aren't that stupid. Well, not for the most part, anyway. The thought of Harper gaining a majority is just too fearful for the anything crowd. As well, the media loves to depress conservative support, and can usually do it by disheartening conservatives with crummy polls right up to election day. Don't let em fool you. Conservatives: 160 seats, 30 in Quebec. Wishful thinking? I don't think so. Time will tell. Quote
geoffrey Posted January 21, 2006 Report Posted January 21, 2006 There is no way the Liberals are closing the chasm that exists between them and the voters.Don't forget, the pollsters believe that they can pick and choose who wins elections. They have some effect, especially on those Canadians who think this is a ProLine bet, but for the most part, people aren't that stupid. Well, not for the most part, anyway. The thought of Harper gaining a majority is just too fearful for the anything crowd. As well, the media loves to depress conservative support, and can usually do it by disheartening conservatives with crummy polls right up to election day. Don't let em fool you. Conservatives: 160 seats, 30 in Quebec. Wishful thinking? I don't think so. Time will tell. 30 CPC seats in Quebec will earn anyone in Calgary a beer. I forgot what my last bet was, but you can hold me to either. I'll even throw in a steak, and my car. Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
Biblio Bibuli Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 Conservatives: 160 seats. Sorry, that nice round number has already been taken. 161 is still unclaimed as far as I know, and ever since Geoffrey bumped his prediction to 163, 159 is too. Good luck! Quote When a true Genius appears in the World, you may know him by this Sign, that the Dunces are all in confederacy against him. - Jonathan Swift GO IGGY GO!
Hicksey Posted January 22, 2006 Author Report Posted January 22, 2006 Conservatives: 149 Quote "If in passing, you never encounter anything that offends you, you are not living in a free society." - Rt. Hon. Kim Campbell - “In many respects, the government needs fewer rules, but rules that are consistently applied.” - Sheila Fraser, Former Auditor General.
geoffrey Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 Conservatives: 160 seats. Sorry, that nice round number has already been taken. 161 is still unclaimed as far as I know, and ever since Geoffrey bumped his prediction to 163, 159 is too. Good luck! Can I take 159 back? Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
BigGunner Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 My prediction... Conservative 125 Liberals 90 BQ 55 NDP 38 Quote
tml12 Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 My prediction...Conservative 125 Liberals 90 BQ 55 NDP 38 Conservatives 134 Liberals 84 Bloc 60 NDP 30 That is my final answer (and only one recently I think...) Quote "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything." -Alexander Hamilton
geoffrey Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 My last prediction, version 4 I think... I'm sticking by this one. Conservatives 158 Bloc 63 Liberals 60 NDP 25 Ind 2 Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
geoffrey Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 Hill and Knowlton based on Jan.21 Ipsos Reid: LPC 46 CPC 157 NDP 42 BQ 62 IND 1 NDP support is obviously too high, shift some of that to the Liberals and what do you get?? GEOFF'S PREDICTION! Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
BigGunner Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 First of all, the NDP tally is not too high...they very well could score 42 seats or more - especially if they retain 20% of the popular support, just as they did in 1988 when Broadbent's NDP got 43 seats. Hill and Knowlton based on Jan.21 Ipsos Reid:LPC 46 CPC 157 NDP 42 BQ 62 IND 1 NDP support is obviously too high, shift some of that to the Liberals and what do you get?? GEOFF'S PREDICTION! Quote
geoffrey Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 First of all, the NDP tally is not too high...they very well could score 42 seats or more - especially if they retain 20% of the popular support, just as they did in 1988 when Broadbent's NDP got 43 seats. Fine with me as long as those seats leave the Libs. Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
tml12 Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 First of all, the NDP tally is not too high...they very well could score 42 seats or more - especially if they retain 20% of the popular support, just as they did in 1988 when Broadbent's NDP got 43 seats. Fine with me as long as those seats leave the Libs. Agreed but I wouldn't bet on it. The Liberals always do better than expected on voting day... :angry: Quote "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything." -Alexander Hamilton
geoffrey Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 First of all, the NDP tally is not too high...they very well could score 42 seats or more - especially if they retain 20% of the popular support, just as they did in 1988 when Broadbent's NDP got 43 seats. Fine with me as long as those seats leave the Libs. Agreed but I wouldn't bet on it. The Liberals always do better than expected on voting day... :angry: As long as those gains are from the NDP, all is good in the world.. Quote RealRisk.ca - (Latest Post: Prosecutors have no "Skin in the Game") --
tml12 Posted January 22, 2006 Report Posted January 22, 2006 To me, the Conservatives are the only choice. The Bloc is separatist. The NDP is socialist. The Liberals are, oh my--in one word, corrupt and cataclysmic, awful. But I understand people voting NDP or Bloc. At least they don't need to clean shop. Quote "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything." -Alexander Hamilton
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