By-Election Call

[Michael Bluth]

The speculation on an MP's sexual orientation is rather repugnant.

Why?

He represents the riding with the highest population of GLBT in the country.

There are fair and reasonable questions resulting from the other posts in the thread.

[Argus]

The speculation on an MP's sexual orientation is rather repugnant.

I think given the amount of time the federal parliament spent debating and discussing policies which involved improving the lives (mostly the economic lives) of homosexuals that Bill Graham's sexual orientation was and is a matter of public interest. I think the fact he actually IS gay and has spoken out often in favour of improved pensions and marriage and adoption rights for gays - while not telling the voters he himself is gay - is dishonest.

I also think that a married man who carries on affairs, with people of either sex, is a matter of public interest because it speaks to his willingness to ignore oaths and loyalties in favour of personal pleasure.

I wonder if he dared ever make any statements with regard to increasing the age of consent.

[jdobbin]

I think given the amount of time the federal parliament spent debating and discussing policies which involved improving the lives (mostly the economic lives) of homosexuals that Bill Graham's sexual orientation was and is a matter of public interest. I think the fact he actually IS gay and has spoken out often in favour of improved pensions and marriage and adoption rights for gays - while not telling the voters he himself is gay - is dishonest.

I also think that a married man who carries on affairs, with people of either sex, is a matter of public interest because it speaks to his willingness to ignore oaths and loyalties in favour of personal pleasure.

I wonder if he dared ever make any statements with regard to increasing the age of consent.

This is just a personal attack on an individual.

If someone has any evidence of wrongdoing, bring it forward and out your real name behind it. Otherwise, this is just a smear.

[geoffrey]

The 'stunt' was during Rae's campaign for Liberal leadership, a full year before announcing the run for Toronto Centre.

Whoa! It was a joke!! Sheesh.

[jdobbin]

Just reading on the subject, apparently the prime minister has to call an within a 180 day deadline once an MP resigns or dies in office. Jean Lapierre's old riding reaches that mark in August so no choice there, an election will be called for that seat at least.

Traditionally, when there are a number of seats open, the prime minister calls for by-elections for all the seats at once. We'll have to see if it happens this time.

[jdobbin]

Another Liberal has indicated his intention to resign next month.

That is a lot of seats that will be empty in the fall. Think that we will definitely have to see some elections in the fall.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...11?hub=Politics

One-term Liberal MP Gary Merasty announced Wednesday he will step down at the end of next month to pursue an opportunity in the private sector.

The member for the Saskatchewan riding of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River is the second Liberal MP to leave Parliament in as many weeks.

[Michael Bluth]

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River was the second closest riding in the 2006 election, after Tony Clement.

Jeremy Harrison has been campaigning for this riding since losing it (having it stolen depending on who you talk to) in January of 2006.

This will be an easy pick up for the Conservatives.

[Michael Bluth]

Interesting column in today's Star.

Maybe Harper doesn't hold all the by-elections at one.

The key seat is Outremont. If the Liberals lose that, probably to the NDP, it makes Dion look really, really bad.

It's to Harper's advantage to hold Outremont by itself. Look for the PM to set the date ths coming week. Probably for Monday, September 10th.

The NDP are running former Provincial cabinet Minister Thomas Mulcair.

Wow, the NDP picking this seat up is great, great news for basically everybody but the Liberals. A Liberal loss here and the calls for Dion's resignation will get louder.

Edited July 22, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[jdobbin]

The NDP are running former Provincial cabinet Minister Thomas Mulcair.

Wow, the NDP picking this seat up is great, great news for basically everybody but the Liberals. A Liberal loss here and the calls for Dion's resignation will get louder.

Your expectation of an NDP win Outremont is pretty optimistic. The riding has been held by only one party besides the Liberals in decades. The NDP has only ever gotten 20% of the vote in the riding maximum. Moreover, the NDP have only ever elected one MP in Quebec and he declined to run again because he was a nationalist who couldn't get along with NDP federalism.

The BQ are offering up an unknown and the Tories have not even selected a candidate yet. Mulcair doesn't live in Outremont so this is going to hurt him according to some Quebec analysts.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that well known Quebec journalist and academic Jocelyn Coulon who lives in the riding should be able to hold onto the seat.

Edited July 22, 2007 by jdobbin

[August1991]

The NDP are running former Provincial cabinet Minister Thomas Mulcair.

Wow, the NDP picking this seat up is great, great news for basically everybody but the Liberals. A Liberal loss here and the calls for Dion's resignation will get louder.

Mulcair is not going to win in Outremont.

[Michael Bluth]

The BQ are offering up an unknown and the Tories have not even selected a candidate yet. Mulcair doesn't live in Outremont so this is going to hurt him according to some Quebec analysts.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that well known Quebec journalist and academic Jocelyn Coulon who lives in the riding should be able to hold onto the seat.

This isn't personalizing it, but if you take it that way so be it.

If you want to justify your argument by talking about people who support your view, provide a link. Here is the Jim Travers column I referred to in my original post. Link

Political scientist and pundit Jocelyn Coulon will be lugging more than a damaged Liberal brand around Outremont when Stephen Harper decides to call by-elections. Coulon's knees will also be buckling under the weight of a leader who is far from buoyant.

How important is Outremont to Dion and broader Liberal prospects? So important the party is counting on success in Ontario seats it now holds to mask what would be a signature Quebec failure.

[jdobbin]

The BQ are offering up an unknown and the Tories have not even selected a candidate yet. Mulcair doesn't live in Outremont so this is going to hurt him according to some Quebec analysts.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that well known Quebec journalist and academic Jocelyn Coulon who lives in the riding should be able to hold onto the seat.

This isn't personalizing it, but if you take it that way so be it.

Several of the blogs out there, many from Quebec have noted that Mulclair is outside the area where he had a good chance, namely Laval. Many wanted him to run there if he ran anywhere. Some of the newspapers are just starting to analyze the match-up.

http://sinestra.blogspot.com/2007_04_01_archive.html

Quebec's former environment minister, Thomas Mulcair has chosen to run as an NDP star candidate in Quebec rather than selling out to the Conservatives, who also wanted him. He lives in my beautiful riding of Lac-Saint-Louis, but it's not likely he will run here. The Gazette suggests he may run in Outremont if a by-election is held. It would be interesting, though, if he opted to run in Laval-les-Iles, which includes Chomedy (his provincial seat) where constituents are still annoyed with Raymonde Folco.

Some Liberals say Mulclair has a chance if the stars align.

http://fuddle-duddle.blogspot.com/2007/07/...n-for-dion.html

The Liberals have a good shot at retaining the riding. Coulon will siphon some of the soft sovereigntist vote because he is a respected academic. With support for sovereignty on the island of Montreal nearing 20%, it will be difficult to imagine Jean-Paul Gilson rallying the Bloc forces. My sources within the Bloc tell me he won’t have the student groups Farouk Karim had nor the organization star candidate Jacques Leonard had in 2006.

The Tories, who finished 5th here in 2006, plan on running a campaign where they will spend the maximum. The goal here will be to embarrass the Liberals. As many Jewish organizers here on the island have bolted to the Tories, a high profile Jew may be enough to steal away some valuable Liberal votes to help the wild card in this equation, Thom Mulclair, squeak through.

The NEP, or the Emo-crats, have a chance to win this riding. With staff being mobilized from all corners of the province (they really need to go to all corners) and even some coming in from Ottawa, Jack and friends will put all they have into winning this by-election. If the NDP can get the usual Bloc student vote and a chunk of the Green vote to vote for Mulclair, who is very popular in that constituency, he has a very good chance at getting elected. The McGill ghetto, also partially in the riding, will be key to the NDP votes as well.

Some say the NDP will split the federalist vote and allow the BQ to win as they are most popular party in Quebec.

http://uncorrectedproofs.blogspot.com/2007...-outremont.html

If sovereignist voters back Gilson en masse, there is a real possibility that the BQ could win the day, even by taking only a third of the votes. If Mulcair eats into the Liberal vote total from 2006 enough to increase the NDP share of the vote to 27%, the party would still fall short of the BQ's lowest vote total ever in Outremont. Of course, the Bloc is unlikely to win over 37% of the vote like it did in 1993, but BQ support isn't totally crumbling either. At worst, the party should be able to rely on a core vote of 25% (made up almost entirely of convinced sovereignists).

There was talk on radio that Charest and others would not be happy with Mulair winning and that help was probably on the way from unexpected sources to defeat the NDP. This was also reflected in a Montreal Gazette article.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...50-b61804e9bbba

The last election in Outremont was a heated battle between strong candidates: Liberal Jean Lapierre, Bloquiste Jacques LEonard, the NDP's LEo-Paul Lauzon and Daniel Fournier, a lesser-known but quality candidate for the Conservatives.

The NDP's Lauzon, who hardly campaigned, still managed to get 17 per cent of the vote. And Mulcair is already campaigning hard, riding the wave of opposition to the Rabaska project and to the Canadian mission in Afghanistan.

Mulcair could also benefit from the fact the Bloc made the mistake of choosing Jean-Paul Gibson, a doctor who is much less known than Leonard.

The real foe for Mulcair will be Jocelyn Coulon, a respected expert on international relations. He was handpicked by Dion after the Liberal leader succeeded in keeping Justin Trudeau from running in the same riding.

Coulon is a serious contender with the big red Outremont machine behind him. Dion also badly wants his expertise at a time when the Afghanistan mission isn't going very well.

CBC Radio's talk on the subject today was that Justin Trudeau was rejected from the riding because they wanted an academic and preferably someone who lived in the riding to counter Mulcair who is an academic who doesn't live in the riding.

Coulon spoke immediately on an issue that could affect the riding.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/montreal/story/20...remont0720.html

New federal Liberal star candidate Jocelyn Coulon used his first political appearance to call for a complete withdrawal of Canadian troops from Afghanistan.

Coulon, running for the Grits in an upcoming byelection in Outremont, said Canada should end its involvement in Afghanistan in 2009 and let other allied troops take over.

There is no doubt that Mulcair is a good candidate for the NDP. But a strong Liberal candidate, a long history of voting Liberal in the riding, a local candidate running against and outsider, a weak BQ candidate and no Conservative candidate in sight give Coulon the edge.

Edited July 22, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

There is no doubt that Mulcair is a good candidate for the NDP. But a strong Liberal candidate, a long history of voting Liberal in the riding, a local candidate running against and outsider, a weak BQ candidate and no Conservative candidate in sight give Coulon the edge.

Shouldn't Coulon be running away with this riding?

It won't take much for the stars to align. A Jewish candidate for the CPC stealing anglo, federalist votes from the Liberals. A minor BQ candidate leading separatist voters to go anything else but Liberal.

It definitely isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Besides it's a by-election. An opportunity many voters take to vote outside their traditional patters.

[cynic43]

I'm sure Myron Thompson's seat is ready for Liberal picking, hey dobbin?

LOL now that is funny....the redneck Neanderthals who inhabit that riding vote Liberal?

Geoffrey you being sarcastic now

[jdobbin]

Shouldn't Coulon be running away with this riding?

It won't take much for the stars to align. A Jewish candidate for the CPC stealing anglo, federalist votes from the Liberals. A minor BQ candidate leading separatist voters to go anything else but Liberal.

It definitely isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Besides it's a by-election. An opportunity many voters take to vote outside their traditional patters.

Anything is possible. Some Conservatives on this forum thought it would be impossible for a Liberal to win Klein's old riding.

Never underestimate the electorate. Some local Liberals were hoping that a woman would be given the nod in Outremont. Is that enough for the NDP to win? Maybe.

Dion has done quite a bit to patch over problems with the Jewish community. We'll have to see who the Tories pick to run. All they have had is rejections from party faithful so far. And who would want to run when they may finish fourth?

Sometimes history in on the side of a party in a riding.

[Michael Bluth]

Anything is possible. Some Conservatives on this forum thought it would be impossible for a Liberal to win Klein's old riding.

Never underestimate the electorate. Some local Liberals were hoping that a woman would be given the nod in Outremont. Is that enough for the NDP to win? Maybe.

Dion has done quite a bit to patch over problems with the Jewish community. We'll have to see who the Tories pick to run. All they have had is rejections from party faithful so far. And who would want to run when they may finish fourth?

Sometimes history in on the side of a party in a riding.

Who were the Conservatives who said it would be impossible for a Liberal to win Ralphies riding? Sure wasn't any of the more prominent posters. I know I predicted a Liberal win. Really doesn't have much to do with Outremont.

The Outremont by-election will be held separately. Dion is in a very, very tough position in that riding. They have won by a minimum of 2,500 votes every election since 1993. Doubtful they can match that.

Who would want to run for the CPC knowing they could finish fourth? Somebody who sees the strategic value of an NDP win for the party. The party will have to guarantee most of the financial risk, which it appears they are willing to do.

It's in the Conservatives best interest to hold Outremont separately. So that's what they will do. It will force Dion to place his personal credibility on that one race.

[jdobbin]

Who were the Conservatives who said it would be impossible for a Liberal to win Ralphies riding? Sure wasn't any of the more prominent posters. I know I predicted a Liberal win. Really doesn't have much to do with Outremont.

The Outremont by-election will be held separately. Dion is in a very, very tough position in that riding. They have won by a minimum of 2,500 votes every election since 1993. Doubtful they can match that.

Who would want to run for the CPC knowing they could finish fourth? Somebody who sees the strategic value of an NDP win for the party. The party will have to guarantee most of the financial risk, which it appears they are willing to do.

It's in the Conservatives best interest to hold Outremont separately. So that's what they will do. It will force Dion to place his personal credibility on that one race.

You can go back and read the thread on the by-elections in Alberta if you like. A few people mentioned that the Tories would hold both ridings. As far as what it has to do with Outremont, nothing. I was referring to your reference on by-elections in general.

I have no problem Dion placing his credibility on the riding win. He has picked the best candidate he could. If he does win, does that mean that Harper should be shaking in his boots or will Conservatives fall back on the old "safe seat" argument.

As far as a strategic value in letting the NDP win, I don't buy it. They could easily split more federalist votes and end up giving the BQ even more seats. The fact that that the Tories are finding it difficult to announce a candidate with only days left before a legislated call to a by-election seems like few people want to be a strategic goat in the running.

[Michael Bluth]

You can go back and read the thread on the by-elections in Alberta if you like. A few people mentioned that the Tories would hold both ridings. As far as what it has to do with Outremont, nothing. I was referring to your reference on by-elections in general.

I have no problem Dion placing his credibility on the riding win. He has picked the best candidate he could. If he does win, does that mean that Harper should be shaking in his boots or will Conservatives fall back on the old "safe seat" argument.

As far as a strategic value in letting the NDP win, I don't buy it. They could easily split more federalist votes and end up giving the BQ even more seats. The fact that that the Tories are finding it difficult to announce a candidate with only days left before a legislated call to a by-election seems like few people want to be a strategic goat in the running.

I've remained consistent about the by-election. I really didn't think the PCs would hold Calgary-Elbow, and they didn't.

I think it's great if Dion places his credibility on the riding. If the Libs win LPC by over 2,000 votes, which could still end up being less than they have won the seat by in the last five General eletions, than the Conservatives are worried.

A squeaker and Dion should be worried.

[geoffrey]

... and the Tories have not even selected a candidate yet.

Doesn't Fortier, by Harper's word, have to run?

Or is this going to be ANOTHER "morally correct, good for the country" deviation from election promises, post-election promises and an ongoing guarntee?

LOL now that is funny....the redneck Neanderthals who inhabit that riding vote Liberal?

Geoffrey you being sarcastic now

While I don't share many views with those that inhabit the Wild Rose riding, I don't think it's really fair to say that those with different opinions are inferior. Some of their views are wholesale irrational, but I would apply the same to most that live in the GTA or Montreal.

[Michael Bluth]

Doesn't Fortier, by Harper's word, have to run?

Or is this going to be ANOTHER "morally correct, good for the country" deviation from election promises, post-election promises and an ongoing guarntee?

Harper promised that Fortier would run in the next federal election. He said nothing about a by-election. Link

Fortier has already announced he will run in Vaudreuil-Soulanges. Link

Appears that Harper has kept his word. Unless you can provide evidence whereby Harper said Fortier would run in a by-election.

[jdobbin]

Doesn't Fortier, by Harper's word, have to run?

Or is this going to be ANOTHER "morally correct, good for the country" deviation from election promises, post-election promises and an ongoing guarntee?

Last I heard was that Fortier will be running in Vaudreuil-Soulanges in the next election.

It won't be an easy riding to win. Marc Garneau got clobbered there and the Tories finished a distant third.