Ukraine

[gc1765]

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his longtime rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, agreed early Sunday to hold elections on Sept. 30 in an attempt to end a tense political standoff that has gripped the country in recent weeks.

Link

Yushchenko! Yuschenko!

I hope he wins.

[AshNazg]

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and his longtime rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, agreed early Sunday to hold elections on Sept. 30 in an attempt to end a tense political standoff that has gripped the country in recent weeks.

Link

Yushchenko! Yuschenko!

I hope he wins.

He won't. Ukraine will either drift back into Moscow's cold embrace or be pulled apart by the US-Russia tidal force.

Ukraine has no future as a self-governing nation, it will either be consumed by the East or the West and the latter is less likely.

[marcinmoka]

I don't think it will be one or the other provided Russia stays on it's course.

A velvet divorce, a la Czechoslovakia would be foreseeable, between the Russian backed East and the E.U minded West as long as Russia cares to make mountains out of mole hills. But than again, in eastern politics, nothing is certain.

[marcinmoka]

I don't think it will be one or the other provided Russia stays on it's course.

A velvet divorce, a la Czechoslovakia would be foreseeable, between the Russian backed East and the E.U minded West as long as Russia cares to make mountains out of mole hills. But than again, in eastern politics, nothing is certain.

Actually, this is how I see a rough approximation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Wahlkre...ne_2006_eng.png

The one big stickler in this case though would be that both parties would call Odessa and the Crimean their own, and that would cause an unbelievable amount of tension.

[Remiel]

Perhaps, but then the Czechs and the Slovaks are two distinct ethnic groups, aren't they? Almost 80% of the Ukraine is Ukrainian.

[marcinmoka]

Perhaps, but then the Czechs and the Slovaks are two distinct ethnic groups, aren't they? Almost 80% of the Ukraine is Ukrainian.

Granted. But that doesn't mean they all identify with Ukraine. Many in the east identify themselves more closely with Russia. Stalin made a good mess with his ethnic re-distribution in hopes of squashing independance minded groups.

And furthermore, we should not forget that almost 70% of Czechoslovakians were Czechs, but the desire for sovereignty was without impediment.

[Remiel]

And furthermore, we should not forget that almost 70% of Czechoslovakians were Czechs, but the desire for sovereignty was without impediment.

Not sure where you got that figure. Here is what Wikipedia says:

Population (1991): 15.6 millions, out of which Czechs 54.1%, Slovaks 31%, Moravians 8.7%, Hungarians 3.8%, Gypsies 0.7% [1], Silesians 0.3%. Ruthenes, Ukrainians, Germans, Poles, Jews made up the remainder of the population.

[marcinmoka]

Not sure where you got that figure. Here is what Wikipedia says:

Well. It is Wikipedia, and as much as I love it, it is not the be all and end all.

But as per the number, it was a more realpolitik approximation. After all, the vast majority of remaining Moravians, Jews, Silesians, Germans and Poles which stayed after 93' considered themselves Czechs.

If you really want to nitpick on what constitutes a Czech and a Slovak, feel free, but even than, the population ratio is still around 2:1.

After all, what constitutes a Quebecker? A Quebecois? Those are definitions I would not even wish to touch.

Anyhow, we mustn't veer off topic too much, so I will say it again. The threat of seperation exists once they reach a critical mass. 20%..50%...80%..does not necessarily make a difference.