Alberta

[jdobbin]

Maclean's has an article about how the PCs in Alberta are starting to show cracks. This is the first I've heard of the situation. I fully expected that the Tories would win massively as they always do.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/21052007/21/cra...y-monolith.html

Political orthodoxy carves Alberta into three mega-constituencies, of which a party must win two for a majority -- Edmonton, Calgary and rural Alberta. The last is safe PC ground. Edmonton is Liberal and will remain so. But Calgary wavers -- a trend already begun under Klein, who lost three downtown ridings to the Liberals in 2004. Some say those Liberal seats could now go to 12. "Calgary is the swing region," the University of Lethbridge's Harold Jansen says. "If Calgary deserts the Conservatives in reasonable numbers, then we get a situation where a minority government is conceivable." That would give the Liberals some hammer in the legislature and a chance at government next time around. Minutiae anywhere else, perhaps, but this is Alberta. "The sense that the government could lose means this idea that to be an effective political actor in Alberta, you have to get involved with the Conservative party -- that sense would end," says Jansen. "The trappings of the one-party state would erode."

[geoffrey]

This is the first I've heard of the situation. I fully expected that the Tories would win massively as they always do.

The media has been on an anti-Ed rampage the last few weeks. Don't worry, the PC warmacht is just fine... they have a more money than any of the Federal parties... and both of the opposition parties are deep in debt.

There is no real threat. They've made it to 30+ years through alot worse (the NEP, the low oil price 90's). We'll see if it they make it another 10 years.

[jdobbin]

The media has been on an anti-Ed rampage the last few weeks. Don't worry, the PC warmacht is just fine... they have a more money than any of the Federal parties... and both of the opposition parties are deep in debt.

There is no real threat. They've made it to 30+ years through alot worse (the NEP, the low oil price 90's). We'll see if it they make it another 10 years.

Wasn't Social Credit filled to the rafters with cash when they went down?

[geoffrey]

After Ed told the Calgary school boards to shove it today, I may change my tune. They may be in trouble. It seems like Ed is intentionally trying to destroy the party.

Should have voted Dinning... should have voted Dinning.

[jdobbin]

After Ed told the Calgary school boards to shove it today, I may change my tune. They may be in trouble. It seems like Ed is intentionally trying to destroy the party.

Should have voted Dinning... should have voted Dinning.

So it isn't all just media talk? There is some friction going on.

[geoffrey]

So it isn't all just media talk? There is some friction going on.

Hard to tell, after looking into the issue, I think Ed might have a point. That said, he's terribly untactful with the Calgary population. Hard to win votes when you are so dismissive.

[jdobbin]

Hard to tell, after looking into the issue, I think Ed might have a point. That said, he's terribly untactful with the Calgary population. Hard to win votes when you are so dismissive.

I'll be watching to see how this shakes out. I'd have said a few months ago that the Tory machine in Alberta was likely to win another massive majority but some of the news columns I've been reading seem to suggest there is some discontent.

[geoffrey]

I'll be watching to see how this shakes out. I'd have said a few months ago that the Tory machine in Alberta was likely to win another massive majority but some of the news columns I've been reading seem to suggest there is some discontent.

Oh there is, but who to go to? Taft's Liberals?! I'd rather not.

I'm a PC'er because I think they've done a great job over the last 30 years, and they "get it." We're seeing a government in Ottawa that just doesn't understand how the game is played, who the players are, and how to listen to business. I fear that electing Liberals in Alberta now would do the same.

I want the people that know the people and the game in power. Is there some questionable stuff, for sure, but I really have learned now not to expect much better from whoever comes in next.

I'll never credit the government with my personal successes (or blame them on my failures), but Alberta has given me so much opportunity, I have a hard time turning my back on the party that has structured the environment here to be that way.

No one has yet convinced me that my life will be better under them then these guys. The Alliance, though bravely autonomous and with pro-business policy, are really a bunch of rednecks calling for a ban on gay marriage, ect.. The Liberals, well, are very uninspiring under Taft's lame leadership... I really don't know what they stand for besides not being Tory. I'll carry my PC membership until that happens to change.

[B. Max]

No one has yet convinced me that my life will be better under them then these guys. The Alliance, though bravely autonomous and with pro-business policy, are really a bunch of rednecks calling for a ban on gay marriage, ect.. The Liberals, well, are very uninspiring under Taft's lame leadership... I really don't know what they stand for besides not being Tory. I'll carry my PC membership until that happens to change.

I wouldn't worry to much about it. I'm starting to look at new country, although not washed up, this ones is on its way. I talked to a guy from Grande Prairie yesterday who said last year at this time you couldn't find a place to stay or buy a house. Now he said people are trying to sell and move out, and they can't even get anyone to look at them and it's not just Grande Prairie or Alberta. Several people have told me lately that northern BC is like a morgue. Peace River air went belly up. I was over at shaw pipe about two weeks ago and they have a skeleton crew in the yard and the plant is shut down. Garneau pipe in Camrose is the same. I think before this is all over the collapse of the Roman empire will look mild in comparison.

[geoffrey]

Good thing that I moved to non-resource dependant industry, like really non-resource dependant. I enjoy all the salary inflation with no risk. It's beautiful.

Unfortunately, your not the only one seeing the signs. Things are slowing... construction especially. That said, we are still taking more oil out each day, so we are getting wealthier each day. Just a matter of how long we can keep everyone employed.

[fellowtraveller]

So it isn't all just media talk? There is some friction going on.

Hard to tell, after looking into the issue, I think Ed might have a point. That said, he's terribly untactful with the Calgary population. Hard to win votes when you are so dismissive.

The Calgary perspective is unique, little doubt about that.

They have enjoyed all the gravy, all the time, for many years. Maybe Ed is the reality check that is way overdue.

[geoffrey]

They have enjoyed all the gravy, all the time, for many years. Maybe Ed is the reality check that is way overdue.

Reality check? Are you from here?

High-risk always promises high-reward. It's the definition of Calgary. Individuals living here get their just reward, and we all realise we live a pretty fine balance between massive-160%-of-the-rest-of-Canada-each wealth and absolute Maritime style poverty, but it's a line we chose.

After all, it's not like we can start building cars or smelting aluminium tomorrow.

[Michael Bluth]

Reality check? Are you from here?

High-risk always promises high-reward. It's the definition of Calgary. Individuals living here get their just reward, and we all realise we live a pretty fine balance between massive-160%-of-the-rest-of-Canada-each wealth and absolute Maritime style poverty, but it's a line we chose.

After all, it's not like we can start building cars or smelting aluminium tomorrow.

I think Ed has a couple big problems to deal with.

1. Bronco the Liberal whining unendingly for more cash for Calgary. (His toughest challenge IMHO).

2. Housing issues in the cities, Edmonton, Calgary and Fort McMurray. (The housing market appears to be cooling in Edmonton and Calgary. Still hot, but not as red hot as it was last summer.)

3. Perception of weakness.

He can't really do too much about bronco.

He needs to get some vision big time. Announcing the high speed rail link would be a huge step in the right direction.

Get tough.

[geoffrey]

1. Bronco the Liberal whining unendingly for more cash for Calgary. (His toughest challenge IMHO).

Big challenge. Bronco is popular here because Calgary for some ridiculous reason only elects Liberal mayors. And that no one ever challenges the status quo (besides the Dinger) until the last guy steps down.

Calgary is going through alot of challenges, and Bronco is passing the buck to Ed. Let's see if Ed can place the blame squarely where it belongs.

2. Housing issues in the cities, Edmonton, Calgary and Fort McMurray. (The housing market appears to be cooling in Edmonton and Calgary. Still hot, but not as red hot as it was last summer.)

I'm looking at upgrading. Things are more open now. I took at a look at a place 2 weeks ago and it's still on the market, it's nice too! About time. Ready to buy in Calgary? Not a chance, I'll wait for the next NEP. Things are still massively overinflated.

3. Perception of weakness.

I think he's turned that around this week. He's been very tough, maybe too tough, with Bronco and the City.

He needs to get some vision big time. Announcing the high speed rail link would be a huge step in the right direction.

Caution. Albertans like to drive. It's a tough sell. How much time will it save me and what will it cost? If it's more than $50 and takes more than an hour, it won't sell.

[Michael Bluth]

I'm looking at upgrading. Things are more open now. I took at a look at a place 2 weeks ago and it's still on the market, it's nice too! About time. Ready to buy in Calgary? Not a chance, I'll wait for the next NEP. Things are still massively overinflated.

I agree it's overinflated, but don't think there will be as big a bust as with the NEP.

I'm hoping small one BDRMs in Kensington fall to a quarter million ... f*ckin crazy market.

Caution. Albertans like to drive. It's a tough sell. How much time will it save me and what will it cost? If it's more than $50 and takes more than an hour, it won't sell.

The plan is 84 minutes downtown to downtown. Price point who knows at this point. But that travel time could work very well for business travel.

I forgot my fourth point for why I see a big Liberal breakthrough here provincially in the next election.

Most of the new immigrations to the city, despite moving here for economic reasons, are more Liberal than the population on average five yars ago. The huge immigration influx could sway a lot ridings for just that reason.

[geoffrey]

I'm hoping small one BDRMs in Kensington fall to a quarter million ... f*ckin crazy market.

I'm looking at Lower Mount Royal. Maybe Kensington, I think they have a terrible traffic setup there though. 10th and Memorial is uglyyyyy.

The plan is 84 minutes downtown to downtown. Price point who knows at this point. But that travel time could work very well for business travel.

Do I have to wait for the train? Does it leave on the hour, or twice a day? These are all important factors. When dealing with a realistically 2.5 hour commute, why would anyone pay more to slice an hour, unless it was the most convenient thing ever created.

Most of the new immigrations to the city, despite moving here for economic reasons, are more Liberal than the population on average five yars ago. The huge immigration influx could sway a lot ridings for just that reason.

I disagree only on the basis that the 5% immigration movement is not enough to swing most Calgary ridings. Maybe one or two, at the most, assuming all imigrants vote Liberal.

[Michael Bluth]

Do I have to wait for the train? Does it leave on the hour, or twice a day? These are all important factors. When dealing with a realistically 2.5 hour commute, why would anyone pay more to slice an hour, unless it was the most convenient thing ever created.

What about when gas hits $2 a litre? $2.50? $3? All are in the realm of possibiility.

The planned time downtown to downtwon is 84 minutes. Depending on traffic and time of day that is probably saving you 75 minutes easily.

Corporate execs saving 2 1/2 hours out of their day? Lot's of companies will be willing to pay for that.

I disagree only on the basis that the 5% immigration movement is not enough to swing most Calgary ridings. Maybe one or two, at the most, assuming all imigrants vote Liberal.

Add the five percent (if it is that low) to anger about housing to whatever anger Bronco can steer up to Eddie's lacking performance, yada yada yada.

If the Conservatives lose Ralphie's riding to the Liberals and Drumheller - Stettler to the Alliance. OMG there will be such a feeding frenzy in the media it will take a very seasoned team around Eddie to hold things together.

Is Eddie steady enough?

[madmax]

I wouldn't worry to much about it. I'm starting to look at new country, although not washed up, this ones is on its way. I talked to a guy from Grande Prairie yesterday who said last year at this time you couldn't find a place to stay or buy a house. Now he said people are trying to sell and move out, and they can't even get anyone to look at them and it's not just Grande Prairie or Alberta. Several people have told me lately that northern BC is like a morgue. Peace River air went belly up. I was over at shaw pipe about two weeks ago and they have a skeleton crew in the yard and the plant is shut down. Garneau pipe in Camrose is the same. I think before this is all over the collapse of the Roman empire will look mild in comparison.

Free Trade and Emerson deal taking it's toll in BC?

Regardless B. Max, should you find a new country, the power of the internet will allow you to continue to post on these forums.

[fellowtraveller]

They have enjoyed all the gravy, all the time, for many years. Maybe Ed is the reality check that is way overdue.

Reality check? Are you from here?

High-risk always promises high-reward. It's the definition of Calgary. Individuals living here get their just reward, and we all realise we live a pretty fine balance between massive-160%-of-the-rest-of-Canada-each wealth and absolute Maritime style poverty, but it's a line we chose.

After all, it's not like we can start building cars or smelting aluminium tomorrow.

Yes, I am 'from here' and I have been paying attention.

If you believe that Calagary has not received the lions share of provicnial capital money for the last 15 years, you are not paying attention. Check school boards, hospital , freeway money - all disproportionately in Calagrys hands. It is Edmontons fault really, they had a series of weak, lefty mayors and have not had a local Premier for decades. Thats why Bronco is so pissed - he now has to jump through some hoops that Lougheed/Klein waived for Calgary for decades in return for a whole pile of dead-certain Tory seats.

Get used to it, Farmer Ned is The Boss now. He was elected because many Albertans said 'enough of this crap' and rejected both Calgary candidates.

'High risk, high reward my ass- Calagry has lived forever in the safest political environment imaginable for a long time. Welcome to reality, pilgrim.

[B. Max]

name='madmax' date='May 26 2007, 12:19 PM' post='222049']

Free Trade and Emerson deal taking it's toll in BC?

It has nothing to do with either of them.

[madmax]

name='madmax' date='May 26 2007, 12:19 PM' post='222049']

Free Trade and Emerson deal taking it's toll in BC?

It has nothing to do with either of them.

That was your queu to provide what is going on there

[B. Max]

name='madmax' date='May 26 2007, 12:19 PM' post='222049']

Free Trade and Emerson deal taking it's toll in BC?

It has nothing to do with either of them.

That was your queu to provide what is going on there

Gee I thought I did in the original post. In a nut shell, the oil companies are pissed and have pulled the plug on just about everything other than maintenance that they can't avoid and the oilsands. But the oilsands only applies to the FT. Mac. area. The potential for the rest of the province is for businesses numbering in the thousands going belly up. The effects will be felt right across the country. This should take Stelmach and the red Torry party down, I just hope it gets that SOB Harper as well.

[geoffrey]

Corporate execs saving 2 1/2 hours out of their day? Lot's of companies will be willing to pay for that.

Will it be a time savings though? No one is going to wait for a train every 3 hours or the non-existant taxis to get them there. 45 minute taxi wait, 20-30 minutes waiting around for a train, getting security checked, ect., and then an 85 minute trip? That's now about 170-180 minutes. I drove Leduc to SW Calgary today in 120 minutes (add on another 30 to Edmonton downtown, 150 minutes). That's going to be a tough sell.

[Michael Bluth]

Will it be a time savings though? No one is going to wait for a train every 3 hours or the non-existant taxis to get them there. 45 minute taxi wait, 20-30 minutes waiting around for a train, getting security checked, ect., and then an 85 minute trip? That's now about 170-180 minutes. I drove Leduc to SW Calgary today in 120 minutes (add on another 30 to Edmonton downtown, 150 minutes). That's going to be a tough sell.

45 minute taxi wait in downtown calgary on a work day? Uhhhh no.

Security checks on a train? Have you taken the train in Canada?

Of course you aren't going to be sold. You don't want to be.

That's ok. You aren't in the target market anyways.

I will take your completely ignoring the economic side to mean you agree that it would be worth it financially.

[geoffrey]

If it makes so much sense, then a private company would have done it already. Obviously something makes this either too risky, or not a viable business concept.