Tories Release Dire Forecast on Kyoto

[Who's Doing What?]

The plan to meet the targets only raises money to export to countries.

After Canada meets and exceeds the Kyoto targets would not other countries be buying credits from us?

[B. Max]

You have no idea what you are talking about. Where will you get the material for your so called new technologies and new products. Just like man made global warming which doesn't exist, neither will your new products.

Right. There is no such thing as inovation or creativity.

There is no such thing as conjuring up something out of thin air. The economy is all interrelated and all stems from the four core industries. The ones you would destroy along with some others that are close like steel, leaving you to conjure up your new products which like I said can't be done. If it could, it already would be.

[Canuck E Stan]

What I don't like about this is that it appears that the government has chosen to cook the books.

Jan 1, 2008? 275000 job losses by 2009?

There has been that much job loss in Manufacturing the last few years, and not a peep from this government. These jobs are real losses, not just projected.

The problem with a skewed report like this is that a credible argument regarding the Liberals dragging their feet, has been totally undermined by an irresponsible report that will undermine the Environment Minister.

It would appear that few are taking the Ministers report at face value, or very seriously.

Your first point about the present job loses in manufacturing in the last few years,that is precisely how fast the job loses can occur in the next few years.

Have you asked yourself why these manufacturing jobs have gone in the last few years? What industry employed these people? Think about it?

The report is not irresponsible but tells it like it is.

Listen to Baird: this wolf may be real

Hence the Liberal riposte to the Environment Minister's estimates of the costs to the economy of adopting their declared policy with respect to global warming, as contained in Bill C-288: a bill that would commit us, not merely to comply with our Kyoto targets, but on the original Kyoto timetable -- a distinction that seems to elude most of the media. Rather than attempt to rebut the minister's figures, the Liberals' main defence has been to accuse him of scare tactics.

But it's not using scare tactics if in fact those are the costs. And indeed the minister's numbers -- if you accept his assumptions -- are quite plausible, as a number of expert reviewers have attested, including Don Drummond, the former finance department chief economist and Mark Jaccard, perhaps Canada's leading authority on the economics of climate change.

The deadline for meeting this target is not, as commonly reported, 2012. Rather, it is 2008 to 2012: the target is defined as the average annual emissions over that period. Yet emissions are currently projected to grow another 10% over the next five years, to roughly 850 Mt. So it isn't just a matter of somehow cutting 200 Mt out of emissions by next year, but of cutting nearly 300 Mt by 2012 --an average reduction of 33% from the baseline forecast. If we fall short of that target in the first year, we have to exceed it in subsequent years.

There are two broad ways of obtaining these credits. One is from developing countries, through the Joint Implementation or Clean Environment Mechanisms established under Kyoto. But the total worldwide supply of these is an estimated 85 Mt, and the government's projection already assumes we have bought 65 Mt of these.

The other place to buy credits is on the international emissions trading markets. But these are only just getting under way, and it is to be doubted whether they could yet handle the kinds of demands we would be placing upon them.

Last, there is the legal question. The clear expectation at Kyoto was that the greater part of the required reductions would take place domestically. While no specific percentage is mentioned, the Protocol speaks of a "significant element." The so-called "flexibility" mechanisms were intended to be "supplemental" to domestic action, not a replacement for it. So it would arguably violate at least the spirit of Kyoto to rely so heavily on purchases abroad.

And since complying with Kyoto is the only reason we would be engaged in this mad dash to hit an arbitrary target by an artificial deadline, what exactly would we be accomplishing?

And how was the opposition going to achieve these immediate results starting in 2008 without the economy being effected drastically?

It can't be done.

[Martin Chriton]

You have no idea what you are talking about. Where will you get the material for your so called new technologies and new products. Just like man made global warming which doesn't exist, neither will your new products.

Right. There is no such thing as innovation or creativity.

No point in researching new ways to generate energy, or new manufacturing processes, or new energy efficient products, B. Max has declared they will never exist. Sure, whatever you say man.

Exactly. The only way to meet the Kyoto targets would be to innovate and be creative!

This takes time. We can't rush it.

If we wanted to meet them we should've started a few years back. At this point, we should admit we failed on Kyoto, and come up with a new long term strategy.

Forget Kyoto.

[B. Max]

And how was the opposition going to achieve these immediate results starting in 2008 without the economy being effected drastically?

It can't be done.

It could be done tomorrow. The following day the revolution would begin. Which is the way I would prefer to see it unfold. Death by a thousand cuts is still death.

No matter, everyone who has looked at has said it would destroy the economy, even the liberals had two committees look at it and said it couldn't be done without destroying the economy.

Dion himself said that. So as far as these politicians trying to push the CPC into it, it is pure politics and playing with the economy and peoples lives.

http://www.fraserinstitute.ca/shared/readm...?sNav=nr&id=801

[Michael Bluth]

After Canada meets and exceeds the Kyoto targets would not other countries be buying credits from us?

Nobody. Not Elizabeth May, not Al Gore, not David Suzuki is arguing that Canada can meet the Kyoto timeline without buying credits. Nobody.

[speaker]

B Max you said "If it could, it already would be." I don't think that follows. There are a variety of options that could be but aren't, in a variety of different fields, from health care to agricultural research, to space flight. And there are a variety of reasons why this is the case. In energy research, the price of CO2 reductions, corporate well being, and environmental well being, one of the main reasons is ignorance.

encouraging ignorance by denying possibility doesn't help anyone in the long run. And it would help if there was co-operation rather than as Canuckistan says Opposition. Who is the opposition, Is there no reality beyond the conservative/ liberal dichotomy and their grab for political power?

"

QUOTE(Canuck E Stan @ Apr 21 2007, 06:00 PM)

And how was the opposition going to achieve these immediate results starting in 2008 without the economy being effected drastically?

It can't be done."

And then you waged in with this.

"

It could be done tomorrow. The following day the revolution would begin. Which is the way I would prefer to see it unfold. Death by a thousand cuts is still death.

No matter, everyone who has looked at has said it would destroy the economy, even the liberals had two committees look at it and said it couldn't be done without destroying the economy.

"

Even the Liberals???? Ok so I think that we have established that you don't vote for the party of the scandal, ok excuse me the party of the middle. So why would you believe what they are trying to tell you now?

There is no more oil and gas being made. The burning of it is causing us serious environmental problems. That costs. It is doing serious economic damage to us. That costs. It is doing serious social damage. That costs. and there are alternatives.

As in Canuckistans reference....

"

QUOTE

Last, there is the legal question. The clear expectation at Kyoto was that the greater part of the required reductions would take place domestically. While no specific percentage is mentioned, the Protocol speaks of a "significant element." The so-called "flexibility" mechanisms were intended to be "supplemental" to domestic action, not a replacement for it. So it would arguably violate at least the spirit of Kyoto to rely so heavily on purchases abroad.

And since complying with Kyoto is the only reason we would be engaged in this mad dash to hit an arbitrary target by an artificial deadline, what exactly would we be accomplishing? "

A lot of the reductions would be done here at home. If then we can't meet our targets we could help others reduce the environmental impacts. However the only reason we are in this mad dash might better be phrased "complying with Kyoto so as to reduce our heel print on the plant." Whether we are good enough to get where we should get may be debateable but to go whining into our environmental nightmare about the possibility of some minor economic and social changes is going to be seen as petty.

I have seen studies that indicate that Energy Use doesn't exist as a direct correlation of economic development.

[speaker]

After Canada meets and exceeds the Kyoto targets would not other countries be buying credits from us?

Nobody. Not Elizabeth May, not Al Gore, not David Suzuki is arguing that Canada can meet the Kyoto timeline without buying credits. Nobody.

Perhaps not. After decades of governmental and corporate stalling I can't figure out why we can't do it now.....

Oh yeah, we haven't tried yet. Well what do you say? the alternatives are there such as energy use rather than energy production being the measurement of a nations complicity.

[Martin Chriton]

Perhaps not. After decades of governmental and corporate stalling I can't figure out why we can't do it now.....

Exactly. We need a new long term plan. Kyoto targets are way too short term. Forget Kyoto. We failed on Kyoto. If we wanted to do Kyoto we should've started back in '98 when we signed it.

Set intensity targets so the economy doesn't come crashing down, then crank them up in the long run.

As an engineer I have no clue how people expect us to innovate this technology over night. It takes time.

[B. Max]

'speaker' date='Apr 21 2007, 09:56 PM' post='210777']

And how was the opposition going to achieve these immediate results starting in 2008 without the economy being effected drastically?

It can't be done."

And then you waged in with this.

"

It could be done tomorrow. The following day the revolution would begin. Which is the way I would prefer to see it unfold. Death by a thousand cuts is still death.

No matter, everyone who has looked at has said it would destroy the economy, even the liberals had two committees look at it and said it couldn't be done without destroying the economy.

"

Even the Liberals???? Ok so I think that we have established that you don't vote for the party of the scandal, ok excuse me the party of the middle. So why would you believe what they are trying to tell you now?

What don't you understand.

[Canuck E Stan]

Even Canada's green guru is saying that the economy has to pay the price for the green dream.

Suzuki

Suzuki predicts long-term economic failure

"Twenty per cent of the economy will disappear. It will cost more than World War I and World War II put together. We'll go into a kind of depression we've never, ever had in all of history."

He said ignoring the warnings would be a "crime against future generations" and said he wonders if there is a legal basis to take action against governments or corporations that fail to heed such warnings.

All this pretending by the opposition parties that Kyoto won't effect the economy is just stupid political game playing.

For all the time it takes to reduce greenhouse emissions in Canada, that will be when the economic benefits will only start to begin.

'Everything takes longer than it takes"

[speaker]

Exactly. We need a new long term plan. Kyoto targets are way too short term. Forget Kyoto. We failed on Kyoto. If we wanted to do Kyoto we should've started back in '98 when we signed it.

Set intensity targets so the economy doesn't come crashing down, then crank them up in the long run.

As an engineer I have no clue how people expect us to innovate this technology over night. It takes time.

Martin Chriton, Fortunately there is a lot of technological fixes already ready. There is also a wide variety of options available that open up lifestyle change opportunity. I expect there will be more of each before we are done. Don't give up on Kyoto until we have actually tried. giving up on the short term plan just makes it easier to give up on the long term one.

B Max maybe if you answered my question it would go a ways to helping me understand a bunch of stuff.

Canuckistan, The opposition is ignoring the impact of reducing our emissions? It is more my impression that the liberals and the conservatives have done as Susuki states in your quote. They have done their best to ignore the damage that will happen to our economy as we run out of cheap hydrocarbons at the same time as we suffer the costs of global warming.

[B. Max]

B Max maybe if you answered my question it would go a ways to helping me understand a bunch of stuff.

What question.

Canuckistan, The opposition is ignoring the impact of reducing our emissions? It is more my impression that the liberals and the conservatives have done as Susuki states in your quote. They have done their best to ignore the damage that will happen to our economy as we run out of cheap hydrocarbons at the same time as we suffer the costs of global warming.

We are not running out of oil, and there is no man made global warming.

[madmax]

Even Canada's green guru is saying that the economy has to pay the price for the green dream.

Suzuki

Suzuki predicts long-term economic failure

"Twenty per cent of the economy will disappear. It will cost more than World War I and World War II put together. We'll go into a kind of depression we've never, ever had in all of history."

He said ignoring the warnings would be a "crime against future generations" and said he wonders if there is a legal basis to take action against governments or corporations that fail to heed such warnings.

All this pretending by the opposition parties that Kyoto won't effect the economy is just stupid political game playing.

For all the time it takes to reduce greenhouse emissions in Canada, that will be when the economic benefits will only start to begin.

'Everything takes longer than it takes"

The article you directed me too doesn't say exactly what you have lead people to believe.

Suzuki is responding to what the costs would be if Climate change wasn't addressed.

Suzuki on Thursday blasted the federal report, saying the government is ignoring the cost of failing to address climate change.

"First of all, let's stop listening to the goddamn economists," he said.

"Twenty per cent of the economy will disappear. It will cost more than World War I and World War II put together. We'll go into a kind of depression we've never, ever had in all of history."

He said ignoring the warnings would be a "crime against future generations" and said he wonders if there is a legal basis to take action against governments or corporations that fail to heed such warnings.

You have misread the article. These quotes of Suzuki, have been repeated by him on Television. I watched him say the same things on MDL. I can understand the confusion.

[speaker]

B Max the question I asked you was as follows,

Even the Liberals???? Ok so I think that we have established that you don't vote for the party of the scandal, ok excuse me the party of the middle. So why would you believe what they are trying to tell you now?

and it was in reference to your comments about Liberal studies showing harm to the economy from meeting Kyoto targets.

With respect to your response that we are not running out of oil, what I said was that we are running out of affordable hydrocarbons. and with respect to your denial of man made global warming I can only say having given you the website for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

http://www.ipcc.ch/

I can only agree with the old saying that you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.

[B. Max]

'speaker' date='Apr 22 2007, 09:39 AM' post='210863']

Even the Liberals???? Ok so I think that we have established that you don't vote for the party of the scandal, ok excuse me the party of the middle. So why would you believe what they are trying to tell you now?

and it was in reference to your comments about Liberal studies showing harm to the economy from meeting Kyoto targets.

The liberals two, own committees caused the liberals to face reality while they were in power. Now that they are not, they are playing politics, knowing full well it can't be done without destroying the economy. Putting the CPC in a box. Of course it's the CPC's own fault for not exposing the whole rotten mess in the first place. Read this entire thread over at FD. It's an excellent history of the corruption behind the kyoto scam. Which even includes references to Maurice Strong's infamous comment on destroying the economies of western industrialized countries.

http://www.freedominion.ca/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=76137

With respect to your response that we are not running out of oil, what I said was that we are running out of affordable hydrocarbons. and with respect to your denial of man made global warming I can only say having given you the website for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change

Define affordable, everything is going up. At least half the cost of a liter of gas is due to tax and government regulation. So one could say we can no longer afford government.

I already commentted on the IPCC report.

I can only agree with the old saying that you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.

No I won't drink the cool-aid.

[madmax]

Read this entire thread over at FD. It's an excellent history of the corruption behind the kyoto scam. Which even includes references to Maurice Strong's infamous comment on destroying the economies of western industrialized countries.

http://www.freedominion.ca/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=76137

You can find the article at it's source on Fox News.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,250789,00.html

Once something hits FoxNews, it becomes very difficult to take it at face value.

For a starting point, you can look up wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Strong

Then I would look at other sources to back up what was read above. That should be normal for most of us using the Internet. Don't get burned sticking with a Fox News report alone.

[B. Max]

='madmax' date='Apr 22 2007, 04:36 PM' post='210996']

You can find the article at it's source on Fox News.

I said read the entire thread. I know it's a long read but it clearly speaks to the trail of corruption over a long period of time.

[speaker]

='madmax' date='Apr 22 2007, 04:36 PM' post='210996']

I said read the entire thread. I know it's a long read but it clearly speaks to the trail of corruption over a long period of time.

I did.... talk about your conspiracy theories eh? That one stands as the definition.

[cybercoma]

There is a direct relation between the decline of pirates and the rise in global temperature. We need more pirates to combat global warming.

[B. Max]

name='speaker' date='Apr 23 2007, 02:02 AM' post='211177']

I did.... talk about your conspiracy theories eh? That one stands as the definition.

Conspiracy yes, theory, no.

[noahbody]

There is a direct relation between the decline of pirates and the rise in global temperature. We need more pirates to combat global warming.

Shiver me timbers, ya got a point there laddy. Arghhh!

[Topaz]

There is another way Baird may play this. As I watched him talking to the Senate, I got the feeling that he was angry that the Libs brought this in to in law and now it was up to the Cons to put it into play. I 'm just wondering if he is going to hit the manufacturing sector hard and make people very angry, then say don't look at us, the Cons, it was the Libs that signed it into law and I'm just carrying it out!! What a good way to help the Cons win an election. I think this will create new business but the oil&gas and the auto sector will be hurt.

[ScottSA]

Just to get a sense of the incredible blunder Dion has made in hitching his horse to the Greens and the Global Warming fad, imagine what the stock market would do the day Dion won, having announced that he intends to impliment Kyoto. He may be a fool, and assorted enviromaniacs may be fools, but institutional investors aren't. The stock market would fall by at least a third. And that's before the economy even started to feel the concrete effects.

Which is not to say that Dion can or will try for the goals of Kyoto, because it can't be done. But it will make of him a liar typical Liberal in the eyes of the country.

[B. Max]

I think this will create new business but the oil&gas and the auto sector will be hurt.

They hit the energy sector and it will go right through the entire economy. Business has two choices, cut wages or close the doors. At the same time wages are cut the cost of living goes up.