Global Warming

[madmax]

I have seen lots of debate on Climate Change. I am occassionally seeing posts that suggest our climate is getting colder not warmer. What is your opinion, don't just post here without voting in the online poll.

[jbg]

I have seen lots of debate on Climate Change. I am occassionally seeing posts that suggest our climate is getting colder not warmer. What is your opinion, don't just post here without voting in the online poll.

My belief in climate cycles is well known. Expanding on the issues of "cycles", my bet is that if we are in a warming now, it's cyclical. There's the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ("PDO") and sunspot/solar forcing cycles (long term), North Atlantic Oscillation a/k/a Arctic Oscillation (quasi-long term), El Nino Southern Oscillation ("ENSO") (the familiar short-term El Nino and La Nina) cycles. These all have an impact and interplay with each other to produce cycles. Sometimes, such as during 1976-7, 1977-8 and 1978-9 they all come together to produce a calamitous seeming cooling. Then, the "chicken littles" cluck about global cooling. Other times, such as during 1988-9, 1990-1, 1991-2, and 1997-8 they all come together to produce a calamitous seeming warming. Then, the "chicken littles" cluck about global warming.

Now, when there are cold events, such as record setting snows in NYC, or Halifax's "White Juan", some people, a few of whom are "chicken littles" call it "climate change", as if there's never been a big windstorm or snowstorm before.

Read below (excerpts) You should check link for some striking graphs relating to some of these cycles that won't post (link) :

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North Atlantic Oscillation and year-to-year plankton fluctuations.

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Jean-Marc Fromentin

LOBEPM. Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers. Station Zoologique, B.P. 28. 06230 Villefranche sur mer. France.

Benjamin Planque

Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science. The laboratory, Citadel Hill. Plymouth PL1 2PB. United Kingdom.

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This study investigates a link between a large-scale atmospheric phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation1-4, and fluctuations in the abundance of zooplankton species. Since copepods are the major component of the northeast Atlantic and North Sea zooplankton5-6, we focused on two dominant species: Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus. Long-term variations in abundance of these two species are closely associated with the state of this oscillation, although their responses to the NAO are opposite. We suggest that the relationship between the NAO and the two Calanus species results from three main processes: (i) alterations in the stratification of the surface layer that modify the spring phytoplankton bloom7-8, (ii) variations in sea surface temperature, and (iii) changes in interspecific competition. Finally it is hypothesized that the North Atlantic Oscillation plays, in the the North Atlantic, a comparable role to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, on pelagic ecosystems.

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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an alternation of air mass that occurs between the subtropical region (centred on the Azores), and the subpolar region (centred on Iceland). The state of NAO determines the speed and direction of the westerlies across the North Atlantic as well as temperatures on both sides of this ocean1-4, during winter and early spring. A high NAO pattern is characterised in the northeast Atlantic by a reinforcement of the westerlies that are pushed further south, and hence by warmer winter temperatures than normal. On the contrary, a low NAO pattern is typical of a weakening of the westerlies that are moved far north from their average position, and by colder winter temperatures. Recently, Greenland ice cores data have revealed large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic that can be related to the NAO9. It also appears that the persistence of an exceptionally strong positive phase of the NAO seems to be the source of recent temperatures anomalies and changes in atmospheric moisture transport10. Thus, the NAO is a large scale atmospheric phenomenon analogous to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These developments and previous studies4,11-15 that showed the influence of the ENSO on Pacific pelagic ecosystems, raise the question: does the NAO influence the pelagic ecosystems of the North Atlantic?

We investigated the connections between the NAO and zooplankton from long-term monitorings of meteorological and plankton data. The NAO index indicates the state of this oscillation, a positive index corresponding to a high NAO pattern and a negative index to a low NAO pattern. Sea surface temperatures (SST) and west wind stress component (WWS) data were provided by the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set.

The plankton data were collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey (CPR)16, a routine monthly synoptic survey of plankton in the North Atlantic and North Sea. We studied two copepods species, Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus, which contitute the major component of the Northeast Atlantic and North Sea zooplankton5-6, in terms of biomass, abundance and trophic role, and which fulfil a similar function in the ecosystem. Our purpose was to examine the specific responses of these two species to that large scale phenomenon. We analysed long-term and year-to-year changes in abundance of the two Calanus species from 1962 to 1992, on a large area of the Northeast Atlantic, where the CPR sampling intensity was adequate. (emphasis supplied by JBG)

*snip*

[madmax]

It would appear that this isn't as big an issue as all the jaw jawing that has been going on in this forum over the past year. Or those that believe the climate is actually getting colder are winning the debate.

[Keepitsimple]

I voted that the planet is warming....but the planet is always warming or cooling as part of the natural climate change cycle....it's been going on since creation. Is humanity accellerating the process to any large degree? No......perhaps to some small degree but to think that we can actually "control" climate change is to make us out to be more important that we actually are.

[madmax]

I voted that the planet is warming....but the planet is always warming or cooling as part of the natural climate change cycle....it's been going on since creation. Is humanity accellerating the process to any large degree? No......perhaps to some small degree but to think that we can actually "control" climate change is to make us out to be more important that we actually are.

Thanks for the answer. I was going to create a chain of polls within the poll thread from the start. That would have allowed for you to answer in one format such as, Yes I believe it is getting warmer, or no I don't believe it is getting warmer and then a followup question which would ask whether or not you believe we can do anything about it and such.

But I appreciate that you have clarified your answer for this poll.

[PolyNewbie]

Its getting warmer as a natural cycle, its happening independently of man and there is nothing we can do about it. I admit I do not know a lot about this "global warming" science but believe it to be a hoax for political reasons. Its in the Report From Iron Mountain (which is real according to JKG) and a good case is made in "The Global Warming Swindle".

[White Doors]

I voted that the planet is warming....but the planet is always warming or cooling as part of the natural climate change cycle....it's been going on since creation. Is humanity accellerating the process to any large degree? No......perhaps to some small degree but to think that we can actually "control" climate change is to make us out to be more important that we actually are.

My answer too. I didn;t vote though as the anthropogenic aspect seems to be inferred.

[Martin Chriton]

I have seen lots of debate on Climate Change. I am occassionally seeing posts that suggest our climate is getting colder not warmer. What is your opinion, don't just post here without voting in the online poll.

Your poll is broken -- there is no debate on whether climates change.

The poll should be something like:

1. Climate change is not occurring

2. Humans are responsible for none of it (it's all naturally occurring)

3. Humans are responsible for >0% but less than 20%

4. Humans are responsible for between > 20% but less than 80%

5. Humans are responsible for between 80% but less than 100%

6. Humans are responsible for 100% of the climate change

Obviously anyone who'd vote 1, 2, or 6 is extremely stupid.

[madmax]

Your poll is broken -- there is no debate on whether climates change.

There is indeed a debate. There are those whom have put forth arguments that the climate is getting cooler.

I don't believe that there is anyone who doesn't believe that climate changes.

The poll should be something like:

1. Climate change is not occurring

2. Humans are responsible for none of it (it's all naturally occurring)

3. Humans are responsible for >0% but less than 20%

4. Humans are responsible for between > 20% but less than 80%

5. Humans are responsible for between 80% but less than 100%

6. Humans are responsible for 100% of the climate change

Obviously anyone who'd vote 1, 2, or 6 is extremely stupid.

Always a critic. I do my best to put up an honest poll that isn't slanted nor try to make anyone appear stupid.

However sometimes I have been blown away by a poll or two I put forward that turned out to be blowouts. Not because of the question, but merely the fact that poll identified the majority opinion here.

Soon I will hold a vote on the question to be asked.

[Leafless]

It's getting warmer and IMV it's not a natural cycle and I don't believe CO2 is the primary culprit.

Graphs show population growth and global warming go hand in hand.

How else do you explain the abundance of ski's for sale at garage sales with an average price of $20-$25.

Everyone knows it's getting warmer but no one can prove why.

[jenny]

YAWWWWNNNNN

[nickjbor]

I think global warming is real, but I dont think the threat is. IMO, the worst that'll happen is that the parts of canada that are currently to cold to live in will no longer be. in fact, this global warming could be good for canada.

[jbg]

Its getting warmer as a natural cycle, its happening independently of man and there is nothing we can do about it. I admit I do not know a lot about this "global warming" science but believe it to be a hoax for political reasons. Its in the Report From Iron Mountain (which is real according to JKG) and a good case is made in "The Global Warming Swindle".

Ah, we agree. I don't remember that report, if you have a link. By the way, my middle name is "Bruce" so it's "JBG".

[sideshow]

I dont think the question should be if there is global warming or if we are at fault, rather it should be "how fast till we finish the earth off with our pollution?"

[geoffrey]

How else do you explain the abundance of ski's for sale at garage sales with an average price of $20-$25.

Not where I live. We might see glacial growth this year with the massive amounts of snow we've received. Lake Louise for example, has never had this much snow since records were kept.

Hmm. Fancy that.

[PolyNewbie]

The Report From Iron Mountain has an interesting history and it is claimed as a hoax. It does explain what is happening to day.

Report From Iron Mountain

It is actually a serious report and the result of a think tank that studied this problem at a place called Iron Mountain. John Kenneth Galbraith participated and he authenticated the report in The Creature From Jekyll Ilsand. If you want to know about global warming and terrorism this is a good place to start. Its a "mini book" and available for free on the web.

[PolyNewbie]

The Great Global Warming Swindle can be found on Google video. You can watch it for free. You get to hear from some of the scientists that were on Gores 2000 scientist link and what they really think.

The Great Global Warming Swindle first aired on Ch4 in the UK.

[Rue]

"Its getting warmer as a natural cycle, its happening independently of man and there is nothing we can do about it...."

" I admit I do not know a lot about this "global warming" science but believe it to be a hoax for political reasons....."

" Its in the Report From Iron Mountain (which is real according to JKG) and a good case is made in "The Global Warming Swindle".

If as you say you do not know a lot about the global warming science why do you make comments such as the world is getting warmer because of a natural cycle happening independently from man and there is nothing "we" can do about it.

On the one hand you admit you have no scientific basis to make such comments, but on the other hand shoot off at the mouth something that is based on an assumption of science.

Watch it your buddy Fig-Leaf of the Anti-Israel alliance (or what I call the Men of the Appocolypse, the 4 Horsemen, you Figgy, Higgy and Myata)gets quite upset when I write posts contradicting myself, so careful in case he reads something other then anti-Israeli posts and reads your contradiction. He may call you a liar. But I forgive you.

Now on a more serious note-get real with your "Larouchian" government conspiracies and repeating "reports' then clearly are not based on science but subjective opinions that merely recite the preconceived opinions you want to hear.

Educate your self about the scientific process and what scientists are saying. This passive limp macaroni there is nothing you can do about "it" stance is silly.

All of us can reduce our consumption of energy, recycle, and find envrionmentally friendly ways to engage in day to day activities. Its not rocket science and the energy you spend on conspiracy theories could also be spent enlightening yourself on conservation.

Challenge yourself. Try learn just a tad of science and find out why man made pollutants, most certainly have contributed to the depletion of the ozone layer and the warming up of the planet and that is measurable, and can be distinguished from the so called natural cycles you mention.

The fact is the vast majority of the planet's scientists are in unanimous agreement as to what man-made pollutants and industrial activity has done to the climate and ecological system.

I personally believe people who feel they have no control and can't grasp scientist turn to conspiracy theories ( a form of religion) for solace.

I would suggest educating yourself as to the cause and effect of man made pollutants might do you more good then engaging in conspiracy theories.

[jbg]

I dont think the question should be if there is global warming or if we are at fault, rather it should be "how fast till we finish the earth off with our pollution?"

Great subject for a Grade 8 essay. Seriously and less insultingly, I am convinced that man has always left a major league footprint on the earth. Read 1491 by Mann about the "environmentally friendly" FN people. It'll give your head a shake.

[PolyNewbie]

Rue:If as you say you do not know a lot about the global warming science why do you make comments such as the world is getting warmer because of a natural cycle happening independently from man and there is nothing "we" can do about it.

All the planets are heating up. Its a cycle in the sun. I'd like to hear someone discredit that.

On the one hand you admit you have no scientific basis to make such comments, but on the other hand shoot off at the mouth something that is based on an assumption of science.

I din't say that I had no scientific basis - if Mars is heating up too I would have a hard time believing SUV's are responsible for that.

Some say global warming is caused by CO2 others say CO2 is causing global warming. I think CO2 is being causes from global warming. I don't know enough to argue this. There are other advantages to spinning up the global warming hoax - if indeed it is a hoax.

I'm interested in hearing real arguements for global warming and for this the sun heating up would have to be discredited.

Looking down on civilization from an airplane at 30,000 feet even over NY city makes me think we are not as important as we think we are.

[Eldrick Woods]

Finally an interesting Political Board.

Here's my dollar fifty.

1) I'm not sure why there's a debate on whether the earth is warming. It is. It's really not an opinion. It's either warming or it's not. We have ways of measuring it. And it's warming.

2) The term Global Warming has been taken in some circles to mean. Well The earth is warming that means everyone will have Caribbean weather at some point. That's possibly true. That would make this planet uninhabitable in locations. The idea is that the warmer temperatures will melt the land based ice on Greenland and Antarctica. There will still be cold weather on parts of the planet

3) Co2 IS causing the warming the correlation is stunning. But you can ignore if you wish. After all the effects of this won't effect you or your kids. But future generations might be a little pissed.

4) Kyoto is a fraud. Plain and simple.

5) The great Global Warming Swindle is a viral marketing fraud. It's crockumentary. There's very little facts involved it's all hyperbole and theory. If you don't understand the science of Global Warming. You're likely to grab on to this. If you look at it with an open mind as I have. You'll see this. Just clock how much time is actually spent on perceived facts. It's 90% hyperbole and theory.

6) Not everything in Gore's movie is a fact. The facts turn to theory when he starts anticipating what will happen when the land based ice plates on Greenland or Antarctica melt. We're not exactly sure what happens. But all the information about the core drilling and samples from the past are indeed facts. Those ice bubbles are like tiny time capsules. They're reliable.

7) C02 levels have climbed in sequence with the industrial revolution. And will get worse once China and India start theirs. Who knows what will happen. I'm not sure why everyone is so dead set against cleaning up our environment. If everyone used 30% less electricity that would make a huge difference. What do we have to lose? I use to drive an SUV it's not that nice. It's slow, handles like crap and gets dinged at the mall because it takes up so much parking space. I prefer my sports sedan.

Cheers

[madmax]

Finally an interesting Political Board.

Here's my dollar fifty.

Cheers

thanks for your comments, welcome. Yes, this is an interesting board.

[jbg]

Finally an interesting Political Board.

Here's my dollar fifty.

1) I'm not sure why there's a debate on whether the earth is warming. It is. It's really not an opinion. It's either warming or it's not. We have ways of measuring it. And it's warming.

Might that be cyclical?

2) The term Global Warming has been taken in some circles to mean. Well The earth is warming that means everyone will have Caribbean weather at some point. That's possibly true. That would make this planet uninhabitable in locations. The idea is that the warmer temperatures will melt the land based ice on Greenland and Antarctica. There will still be cold weather on parts of the planet

We in the US northeast have been plenty cold this last seven weeks.

3) Co2 IS causing the warming the correlation is stunning. But you can ignore if you wish. After all the effects of this won't effect you or your kids. But future generations might be a little pissed.

You mean warming cycles are new, have never happened before?

4) Kyoto is a fraud. Plain and simple.

Agreed.

[sunsettommy]

YAWWWWNNNNN

At 5:15 pm!

Gosh was the coffee weak?

[sunsettommy]

It would appear that this isn't as big an issue as all the jaw jawing that has been going on in this forum over the past year. Or those that believe the climate is actually getting colder are winning the debate.

I do not think the argument that it is getting colder lately is common argument.

It is the dispute over what level of blame on the increased atmospheric CO2 levels can be ascribed to man.

I think it is a small effect.