SHAPE OF THE MIDDLE EAST TO COME.

[marcinmoka]

And please, no hackery. I want to hear genuine analysis and critique:

THE MIDDLE EASTERN TRINITY

The other day, I attended a “cross panel discussion regarding the future of Iraq. I admit I was slightly taken aback by the limited scope of the views presented by the panelists, all of whom were academics. Of particular concern is how removed the analysis seemed to be from the Middle East as a whole.

My view, which was equally reflected by one of the panelists, was of an eventual peace in the form of a multiethnic federated state. While no person can credibly provide a time table for this much anticipated event (though ensuring their own security would be a good start), we must also accept the fact that there is no other credible option on the table. One idea which occasionally gets tossed around is the division of Iraq into homogenous ethnic states. But this is an absurdly implausible idea since:

a)Independent and very oil rich Kurdistan would only fuel separatist movements amongst Turkey’s large Kurdish population, angering NATO’s sole dependable Muslim ally. To lose the strategic and logistical backings they provide for the US, not to mention the only shred of credibility they have vis a vis the Muslim world would be a detrimental blow to America Foreign Policy.

b)The sectarian violence would reach new heights. Borders spanning thousands of kilometers only exist on paper. As a result, the oil rich north would be looked upon with contemptuous eyes by the energy poor south, potentially escalating the bloodshed.

But Iraq is just a microcosm of a more widespread conflict occurring in the middle-east. For a more accurate picture, focus should be paid to the three players who in my view, hold the true balance of power in the region. They are Iran (the Shi’a superpower), Saudi Arabia (the bankroller and Sunni superpower) and of course Israel (the military superpower), with Syria and Egypt holding considerable weight as well.

The most pressing issue in the Middle East is no doubt Iran. While one would think they would be very concerned with the Iraqi situation, since their neighbors’ security is fundamental to their own, it’s hard to gauge accurately their intentions. (Remarkably enough that seems to be the only thing they have in common with the United States, in that they support the same side). All the attention however seems to get directed towards their nuclear program and Ahmadinejads vitriolic rhetoric. Iran claims they have as much right to “civilian” nuclear capabilities as any other nation. Wrong.

To my knowledge, no nation protests Canada’s use of nuclear power. If Iran was a liberal democratic state, I doubt any objections would be raised. That which causes concern amongst every single nation is that it would actually be a tiny group of fundamentalist clerics with the nuclear capability. But other then pursuing diplomatic negotiations (which buys Iran precious time), America’s hands are tied, for it lacks the political and military capital for any further military action.

This however brings us to the two other key protagonists in the tragic-comedy. While America is currently too weak to directly disarm Iran by force if needed, no one can exclude Israel. Iran possessing a nuclear weapon would be the single biggest threat to their own survival. Providing the eventual ousting of Ohlmert’s Kadima party, and if polls are an indicator, the arrival of Netanyahu’s Likudniks, Israel would not hesitate to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capacity. Last years purchase of 100 “bunker busting” bombs further shows they have given this option some thought. Although a much more complex operation then the destruction of the1981 Osirak nuclear facility in Iraq, they at least hint at the willpower to act.

But perhaps the strangest narrative twist is that the third protagonist, Saudi Arabia. This year could very well see Saudi Arabia taking on a more prominent role in the mid east (though not due to goodwill, but the will to survive). The truth is, Saudi Arabia has almost as much to loose as does Israel. The recent “peace building” attempts carried out to heal a divisive Palestinian government are proof. But the real reason for this was to stem the influence of a Shi’a Hizbollah in Sunni Palestine. Iran, who is a big supporter of Hizbollah, would find itself newly assertive and more powerful in wider sectarian mid east politics, and making Saudi kingdom worry because:

a)The instability of the region, even sans revolution, would have a drastic impact of global petroleum prices, and thereby knocking already fragile western economies off balance and blocking capital and investments needed so much in the middle East. An American or European recession is not in ANYONES interest.

b)Of particular concern for the Saudi elite is the threat of a Sunni revolution in their kingdom, resulting from pressure to create a counterbalance to increasing Shi’a domination.

While the Saudi’s cannot afford to appear friendly to Israel on the surface for internal reasons, this rising tide of middle eastern politics could very well align two very strange bedfellows all vying for the same goal, ushering a new era of (secretive) co-operation. Whether it will last, I doubt it. But regardless, what a funny twist of fate. Someone once claimed “politics is a game of chess”, I beg to differ, for in chess, there are but two players!

[sharkman]

That's quite a post, and seems to consider all players. It is indeed a chess match with several players, but I wonder about the Muslim extremists in each country in the region, for their goals are common and they seem to be able to sway the will of the people there. I believe they don't want the U.S. to achieve any of its goals and are willng to kill as many of their countrymen as is necessary to stop the U.S. As well, they want to usher in a Muslim empire of sorts, with Israel being wiped out.

In Iraq, your idea of a multiethnic federated state would be a worthy achievement, but it seems an uncertain outcome with said extremists and terrorists willing to sacrifice so many other's lives.

[scribblet]

Nice post and no time to answer all points, just an opinion that I think its pretty near impossible to bring about peace to the whole region as long as radicals are around. Looking at some headlines this morning it these terrorists operate around the world, none of us are immune.

I can only say that we need a united front in combatting this, until terrorism and the quest for radical theological States is under control I don't see a solution.

Maybe the Saudis and others could do more, very interesting and well written.

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