When will we have the next Federal Election?

[August1991]

The Globe & Mail seems to think we'll have an election soon:

The Conservative Party's chief election strategist has laid out a detailed campaign blueprint for Tory insiders warning that the government expects to be fighting an election battle by March.

The plan would see the Tories exploit polling numbers that they say show Stephen Harper possesses substantially better leadership qualities than Liberal counterpart Stéphane Dion.

As articulated on Tuesday by Doug Finley to about 75 Conservative candidates, organizers and nomination hopefuls, the Tories are ready to run a highly centralized, quick-response campaign that includes a 1,600-square-metre war room.

They have also arranged for bus and air transportation and want nominations wrapped up by March 25 or 26, sources quote Mr. Finley as saying.

I suspect the Tory polls show that Dion is personally weak (trailing the Liberals) and Harper is personally strong (ahead of his party).

For the Tories, the spat over judges and the environment would be good issues to open a campaign.

So, will we have a spring election?

[Remiel]

For some reason, I have a feeling we will not, but I kind of think we will.

They can talk all they want about leadership, but what is their plan for why we are going to the polls again? If they suddenly call an election, even if they try to deflect by having manufactured conditions by which the opposition forces one, is it not possible that they could be ripped a new one using the ads as proof? I mean, if we have an election called in a month, we can " prove " that the Conservatives were planning on it all along, as shown by their ads coming out of nowhere.

[jdobbin]

So, will we have a spring election?

At the moment, it looks like it could happen as soon as the budget is called to a vote.

Afghanistan might be weighing in Harper's mind. Each and every day, politicians and generals keep saying that it could be a bad year again there.

I sincerely hope that the analysts are wrong but after last year, you have to wonder. And for each month of bad news from spring to summer, the polls went down. The numbers have recently improved as casualties have eased off but any party, Liberal or Tory, would be crazy to think that trouble in Afghanistan won't have an influence in the election.

[geoffrey]

We'll see the budget defeated... who's going to support it? The NDP can't risk any more of their voters by propping up the Conservatives.

The CPC wants to go to an election on Kyoto targets, it can be so easily explained to Canadians that this is going to destroy our way of life. And that'll work. The CPC is in healthy shape for a election soon.

[madmax]

I believe the Tories are really interested in having an election while the polls are showing well.

The Electorate is burnt out.

Chretian pulled off elections to challenge his opponents externally and internally. However voter turnout was low and there was no anti liberal backlash, because of the weakness of the opposition parties.

While the opposition parties all appear weak in the current polls, you just can't count on a moment in time to rush towards an election, but if you are going to have one based on a moment in time. Now would be the time.

[geoffrey]

While the opposition parties all appear weak in the current polls, you just can't count on a moment in time to rush towards an election, but if you are going to have one based on a moment in time. Now would be the time.

So true. It's all about getting the message out about the impossibility of the Kyoto targets, and what the Liberals/NDP are trying to do.

No right minded Canadian is going to be ok with sending billions to Russia for them to build coal plants as a solution to GHG emissions. It just doesn't make alot of logical sense. It's enough to win an election IMO.

[August1991]

Paul Wells:

Wells's Second Rule of Politics holds that if everyone in Ottawa knows something, it isn't true. Current example: Stephen Harper is aching to have an election.

To say the least (!), the guy doesn't confide in me. But there are all kinds of publicly-available reasons why Harper would want to keep governing -- more or less indefinitely -- rather than have a spring or (what the heck, might as well push things) an autumn election...

...

Read my book. It's about how this guy Harper wants Canadians to get used to the idea of Conservative governments. The best way he's found so far is to let them have a Conservative government for a while.

My feeling too.

The budget will pass and the Tories will survive until the summer recess. I voted for a 2008 election in the poll above.

Of course, politics always has surprises.

[Who's Doing What?]

Whenever we have another election it will be too soon. Three elections within 4 years is rediculous, and a waste of money. But it looks like Harper and the CPC are ready to go tomorrow if need be.

Probably by the fall Harper will have forced an election, depending on how much his numbers improve.