CPC Majority Feasable. (based off numbers, not emotoins)

[mikedavid00]

I spent a couple hours on this. I ran an analasys on last elections results. I have below ridings that the Liberal's won, but only by a narrow margine. If Bloc won, and second was CPC, then it wasn't included to make life easy on me. People here are very privliged to see something like this.

So basically, on the first example, the CPC need 29% more votes from the Liberals in order to win the riding. I appologize for the poor formating, it's the best I could do with this forum edit window.

There are 20 seats that are under 15% and should be an easy win for harper if he keeps up his performance.

Current Seat Holdings: CPC 124, LIB 103, BQ 51, NDP 29.

Percent / Riding /Riding name/ Last name/First name/Party/Actual vote count/Percent of vote at election

29% 10002 Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor Hynes Aaron Conservative 15376 40.3

10002 Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor Simms Scott Liberal 19866 52

27% 10004 Labrador Goudie Joe Conservative 4528 39.7

10004 Labrador Russell Todd Norman Liberal 5768 50.5

12% 10005 Random--Burin--St. George's Downey Cynthia Conservative 12232 40.8

10005 Random--Burin--St. George's Matthews Bill Liberal 13652 45.5

3% 12011 West Nova Kerr Greg Conservative 17222 38.1

12011 West Nova Thibault Robert Liberal 17734 39.2

21% 13003 Fredericton Lynch Pat Conservative 16292 34.7

13003 Fredericton Scott Andy Liberal 19649 41.8

7% 13005 Madawaska--Restigouche Ouellet Jean-Pierre Conservative 12849 35.6

13005 Madawaska--Restigouche D'Amours Jean-Claude J. C. Liberal 13734 38

24% 13006 Miramichi Morrison Mike Conservative 11250 34.1

13006 Miramichi Hubbard Charles Isaac Liberal 13960 42.3

9% 13009 Saint John Wallace John Conservative 15753 39.3

13009 Saint John Zed Paul Liberal 17202 42.9

18% 24016 Chicoutimi--Le Fjord Boudreault Alcide Conservative 12350 24.7

24016 Chicoutimi--Le Fjord Harvey André Liberal 14581 29.2

3% 35009 Brant McColeman Phil Conservative 21495 36

35009 Brant St. Amand Lloyd Liberal 22077 36.9

24% 35023 Etobicoke--Lakeshore Capobianco John Conservative 19613 35.2

35023 Etobicoke--Lakeshore Ignatieff Michael Liberal 24337 43.6

29% 35027 Guelph Barr Brent Conservative 18342 29.8

35027 Guelph Chamberlain Brenda Liberal 23662 38.4

18% 35033 Hamilton Mountain Graves Don Conservative 15915 27.1

35033 Hamilton Mountain Kelly Bill Liberal 18704 31.9

5% 35034 Huron--Bruce Lobb Ben Conservative 20289 38

35034 Huron--Bruce Steckle Paul Liberal 21260 39.8

18% 35035 Kenora Brown Bill Conservative 8434 31

35035 Kenora Valley Roger Liberal 9937 36.5

35% 35037 Kitchener Centre Cage Steven Conservative 16131 32.1

35037 Kitchener Centre Redman Karen Liberal 21714 43.3

13% 35042 London--Fanshawe Mailer Dan Conservative 13495 29

35042 London--Fanshawe Pearson Glen Douglas Liberal 15199 32.6

34% 35043 London North Centre Mazzilli John Conservative 17968 29.9

35043 London North Centre Fontana Joe Liberal 24109 40.1

6% 35044 London West Gretzky Al Conservative 21690 35.5

35044 London West Barnes Sue Liberal 23019 37.7

14% 35049 Mississauga--Erindale Dechert Bob Conservative 23524 39.3

35049 Mississauga--Erindale Alghabra Omar Liberal 26852 44.8

10% 35050 Mississauga South Green Phil Conservative 20888 40.1

35050 Mississauga South Szabo Paul Liberal 23018 44.2

32% 35051 Mississauga--Streetsville Gill Raminder Conservative 18121 34.8

35051 Mississauga--Streetsville Khan Wajid Liberal 23913 45.9

21% 35053 Newmarket--Aurora Brown Lois Conservative 22376 38

35053 Newmarket--Aurora Stronach Belinda Liberal 27176 46.2

30% 35057 Nipissing--Timiskaming Chirico Peter Conservative 16511 34.5

35057 Nipissing--Timiskaming Rota Anthony Liberal 21393 44.7

22% 35059 Oak Ridges--Markham Callow Bob Conservative 28683 38.5

35059 Oak Ridges--Markham Temelkovski Lui Liberal 35083 47.1

3% 35060 Oakville Young Terence Conservative 25148 42.1

35060 Oakville Brown M. A. Bonnie Liberal 25892 43.4

29% 35062 Ottawa Centre Fountain Keith Conservative 15105 22.7

35062 Ottawa Centre Mahoney Richard Liberal 19468 29.2

18% 35064 Ottawa South Cutler Allan Conservative 23028 37.4

35064 Ottawa South McGuinty David Liberal 27158 44.2

29% 35090 Thunder Bay--Rainy River Leskowski David Conservative 10485 27.2

35090 Thunder Bay--Rainy River Boshcoff Ken Liberal 13520 35.1

22% 35097 Welland Grunstein Mel Conservative 16678 29.2

35097 Welland Maloney John Liberal 20267 35.5

4% 35101 Windsor--Tecumseh Fuschi Rick Conservative 12851 25.3

35101 Windsor--Tecumseh Easton Bruck Liberal 13413 26.4

10% 46009 Saint Boniface Cooper Ken Conservative 14893 35

46009 Saint Boniface Simard Raymond Liberal 16417 38.6

25% 46014 Winnipeg South Centre Richards Michael Conservative 13077 31.5

46014 Winnipeg South Centre Neville Anita Liberal 16296 39.2

1% 47003 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River Harrison Jeremy Conservative 10124 41.1

47003 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River Merasty Gary Liberal 10191 41.4

9% 59003 Burnaby--New Westminster Dalton Marc Conservative 12364 27.6

59003 Burnaby--New Westminster Pynenburg Mary Liberal 13420 29.9

27% 59008 Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca DeSouza Troy Conservative 16327 27.5

59008 Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca Martin Keith Liberal 20761 34.9

12% 59016 Newton--North Delta Eidsvik Phil Conservative 13416 30.6

59016 Newton--North Delta Dhaliwal Sukh Liberal 15006 34.2

15% 59019 North Vancouver Silver Cindy Conservative 22021 36.8

59019 North Vancouver Bell Don Liberal 25357 42.3

11% 59023 Richmond Reid Darrel Robert Conservative 16904 38.7

59023 Richmond Chan Raymond Liberal 18712 42.8

12% 59035 Victoria Baird Robin Conservative 15249 24.6

59035 Victoria Mulroney David Liberal 17056 27.5

4% 59036 West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country Weston John Conservative 22891 36

59036 West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country Wilson Blair Liberal 23867 37.5

The campaign people already have this sort of data below. Dions team know that Libs will move to CPC for next election so their best bet is to pull over NDP voters. That tactic could very well save ridings like the fourth listing of 12011. While Dion will loses seats, he'll also gain some from Quebec. Still, CPC's 40 seat possibility is a good thing. It will depend on Harpers luck and timing when the election comes. Also, alot of these are not high immigrant areas, more working class swing areas.

My prediction is nothing becuase a terrorist attack could happen. Anythign is possible. Too early to predict if he'll get a majority.

[M.Dancer]

Mikedavid and data.....seems like an oxymoron.....

[GreenWhiteandPink]

mikedavid00 you really need to get a life.

I spent a couple hours on this. I ran an analasys on last elections results.

And nobody gives a sh*t.

Loser

[Ricki Bobbi]

mikedavid00 you really need to get a life.

Loser

Don't let the b*stards get you down.

That's an interesting analysis but soooooo much will depend on the defining issues of the next campaign.

I personally believe a CPC majority will come from picking up a few (5 to 10) seats in Quebec, quite a few (10 to 20) in Ontario, a couple (2 to 4) in SK and MB plus the seats (5) the party lost in BC in January. Any pickups in the Maritimes would be a bonus. If Lord runs there could be one in NB, but that's about it...

[mikedavid00]

I personally believe a CPC majority will come from picking up a few (5 to 10) seats in Quebec, quite a few (10 to 20) in Ontario, a couple (2 to 4) in SK and MB plus the seats (5) the party lost in BC in January. Any pickups in the Maritimes would be a bonus. If Lord runs there could be one in NB, but that's about it...

I agree.

How are they going to pick up seats in Quebec though? I'm sure they'll be more likely to vote in their own won't they?

[BC_chick]

One that caught my eye was Burnaby Douglas. Just so you know, there is currently an NDP candidate serving in that riding, so the vote swinging Conservative seems far-fetched. I can't be bothered to spend as long as you researching, but my guess is that there may be other hasty insights in your post if one were to spend the time looking for them.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I agree.

How are they going to pick up seats in Quebec though? I'm sure they'll be more likely to vote in their own won't they?

They finished second in 40 Quebec ridings in January.

Lots of potential options there.

A strong environment minister touting a solid new environmental plan and an election timed to minimize potential bad news from Aghanistan.

There is the possibility to pick up ground...

[mikedavid00]

One that caught my eye was Burnaby Douglas. Just so you know, there is currently an NDP candidate serving in that riding, so the vote swinging Conservative seems far-fetched. I can't be bothered to spend as long as you researching, but my guess is that there may be other hasty insights in your post if one were to spend the time looking for them.

Yes. That particular riding had an error because it was the VERY rare riding whee the winner did won with less than 50% of the vote. It was also won by 250.

Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't do each one manually but used formulas. I had 2000 lines that I had narrow down to that.

So I removed it becasue your right. Vote will most likely stay in NPD, or Liberal.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Yes. That particular riding had an error because it was the VERY rare riding whee the winner did won with less than 50% of the vote. It was also won by 250.

Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't do each one manually but used formulas. I had 2000 lines that I had narrow down to that.

So I removed it becasue your right. Vote will most likely stay in NPD, or Liberal.

That riding will probably stay NDP. Billy Cunningham was the Liberal candidate in 2004 and 2006. As a member of Martin's "Board" he got tons of help in both campaigns. Visits from the PM both go rounds and lots of ministerial visits.

He might run again, but how many times can a guy lose?

Unless Christy Clark (or hubby Mark Marissnen) runs in that riding ... no Liberal has a chance.

[mikedavid00]

I agree.

How are they going to pick up seats in Quebec though? I'm sure they'll be more likely to vote in their own won't they?

They finished second in 40 Quebec ridings in January.

Lots of potential options there.

A strong environment minister touting a solid new environmental plan and an election timed to minimize potential bad news from Aghanistan.

There is the possibility to pick up ground...

Yeah I agree. I hopefully see a majoirty coming our way. Maybe he should call an election when the timing is good. I know he doesn't believe in calling early elections, but what if another Lebanon crisis happens where the media and cbc are trying their best to bury harper. It worked the first time around..

Let's see what happens.

[geoffrey]

No party can win a majority with a united right wing and the Bloc Quebecois. It's realistically impossible.

[jbg]

mikedavid00 you really need to get a life.

I spent a couple hours on this. I ran an analasys on last elections results.

And nobody gives a sh*t.

Loser

Grow up please.

[Ricki Bobbi]

mikedavid00 you really need to get a life.

I spent a couple hours on this. I ran an analasys on last elections results.

And nobody gives a sh*t.

Loser

Grow up please.

Well said!

[jbg]

No party can win a majority with a united right wing and the Bloc Quebecois. It's realistically impossible.

Unless enough "Bloc" ridings recognize the futility of voting for a non-governmental party and support one more oriented towards "More Provinces, Less Ottawa".

[geoffrey]

No party can win a majority with a united right wing and the Bloc Quebecois. It's realistically impossible.

Unless enough "Bloc" ridings recognize the futility of voting for a non-governmental party and support one more oriented towards "More Provinces, Less Ottawa".

Many Bloc ridings are truly Quebec nationalists, not Alberta style less-Ottawa types.

[mikedavid00]

Many Bloc ridings are truly Quebec nationalists, not Alberta style less-Ottawa types.

As I sit typing this, I am in a Bloc riding right now in Montreal. Supposeldy this is a swing riding that was Liberal last time and then now is Bloc. I image some ridings could swing under the circumstance of the last election and the Quebec popularity rating.

Coming here to Montreal for the holdidays... I love it here. It's so hard to imagine they have such high unemployment and are a welfare province. There is just so much Canadian owned private business and industry here. Everywhere you look. The buildings and warehouses have these huge floodlights that emit blue lights onto the buildings, then the will phase into a red light, then a white light. Really cool. The public bathrooms are so clean also. Everyone is good looking, slim, sauve, and enjoying each others company.

When you see the welcome to quebec sign, there is this huge full colour display of the union jack and then a the quebec flag waiving beside it. There are flood lights shining on it. Really high budget and nice looking.

Compared to Toronto, it also feels very safe here. There are very few murders and crazy homeless all over.

I'm really going to enjoy my stay here in Montreal in this Bloc riding of Brossard. I wish everyone could come here to Montreal and experience the truly different 'culture' and way of these people here.

(either that or it's just my perception becuase everytime I'm here i'm on vacation so I'm in a relaxation mode).

[watching&waiting]

The Bloc only has a temperary voters, as once the nasty "it is us or them " type campaignes are realized to be nothing more then a way to spoil your ballot with out physically spoilling it, then the Bloc will bleed heavily. It has always been a temporary solution for most of the Quebec voters and its time will soon start to fade. It may well be that its time is already fading and we may well see that in the provinces next elections. But that is another story.

The liberals still have a lot of baggage when it comes to Quebec voters and the NDP is just not even in the equations, so it may well be the CPC that those who are now things that federalism can work, and give them reasons to park their votes there. I do not see an election any time soon and while I would say normally late spring it may even be early fall before it is actually done. Dion is not so stupid as to try to force an election to quickly and be caught off guard. Only the Bloc and the NDP are that dumb and it is only because they have nothing to lose, that it even comes up at times. So actually this minority government could possibly run for even another year or more, if the conditions stay on course. Most of the hard issues have been delat with and now it can be seen as governing by a more vote friendly means. Which will mean that fewer and fewer oppositions will want to be the ones seen as the plug pullers.

[jbg]

Which will mean that fewer and fewer oppositions will want to be the ones seen as the plug pullers.

Which means that Harper would want to pull the plug, I suppose.

[jdobbin]

Which means that Harper would want to pull the plug, I suppose.

Which is what Pearson did in 1963. Not that it helped.

[jdobbin]

The Bloc only has a temperary voters, as once the nasty "it is us or them " type campaignes are realized to be nothing more then a way to spoil your ballot with out physically spoilling it, then the Bloc will bleed heavily. It has always been a temporary solution for most of the Quebec voters and its time will soon start to fade. It may well be that its time is already fading and we may well see that in the provinces next elections. But that is another story.

The Bloq has had temporary voters for nearly ten years now. When do they become entrenched voters?

[jbg]

Which means that Harper would want to pull the plug, I suppose.

Which is what Pearson did in 1963. Not that it helped.

Diefenbaker was PM going into 1963, Pearson going out of 1963 from what little I know about Canada.

[jdobbin]

Diefenbaker was PM going into 1963, Pearson going out of 1963 from what little I know about Canada.

Sorry, I meant the Pearson government from 1963 to 1965. Pearson called an election in 1965.

[jbg]

Diefenbaker was PM going into 1963, Pearson going out of 1963 from what little I know about Canada.

Sorry, I meant the Pearson government from 1963 to 1965. Pearson called an election in 1965.

And in 1967, I think. But weren't those falls on budgets?

[jdobbin]

And in 1967, I think. But weren't those falls on budgets?

No, Pearson called an election himself in 1965.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_governments_in_Canada

In 1965, Pearson asked the Governnor General to dissolve Parliament in an attempt to win a majority, but the make up of parliament after the 1965 election remained almost exactly the same, leading to three more years of a productive alliance between the Liberals and NDP.