How soon a federal election? Before June 2007?

[August1991]

I think the Liberals will bring down the government at the first opportunity. They want an election soon. I don't think they will hold a policy conference before the next election. The Liberals don't think they did anything wrong or that they are doing anything wrong. In their view, they lost power to Harper by accident.

I might be wrong on this because we don't quite know how Dion will govern as leader. He might be the cautious type and want to wait until he has everything the way he wants it. The pressure will be great for him to go to an election. IOW, I think Dion might be a weak leader.

The Liberals are pumped. So, how soon will we have an election?

[geoffrey]

I agree with your belief that Dion is a weak leader... in English anyways. In French he sounds quite passionate and confident, in English he sounds meak and self-questioning. If he were to talk to me at random and I didn't know who he was, I'd predict a big computer nerd that rarely sees the light of day.

The Liberals are hungry to get their power back though, I'd expect an election around March...

When's the next budget due?

[Hydraboss]

Were I Dion, I would go for the throat immediately. When you've got the party momentum as he does right now, you don't wait for the rest of Canada to figure out who you are or what you stand for. He should play on Harper's lying about the income trusts, and Afgan.. I would hate to see the Lib's win, but if they are to have any hope, it had better be sooner than later. Once the ROC gets to know Dion and equates him with Kwebek, he's done.

He better do it quick.

[jdobbin]

I think the Liberals will bring down the government at the first opportunity. They want an election soon. I don't think they will hold a policy conference before the next election. The Liberals don't think they did anything wrong or that they are doing anything wrong. In their view, they lost power to Harper by accident.

I might be wrong on this because we don't quite know how Dion will govern as leader. He might be the cautious type and want to wait until he has everything the way he wants it. The pressure will be great for him to go to an election. IOW, I think Dion might be a weak leader.

The Liberals are pumped. So, how soon will we have an election?

Robin Sears says the election comes on the first available day in January. However, it is the Tories that will call it.

[geoffrey]

Robin Sears says the election comes on the first available day in January. However, it is the Tories that will cal it.

Citing an impasse on the accountability act?

On what basis will the Tories have room to do so? I figure they'll try to pass another budget and let the government fall on the budget.

[August1991]

I agree with your belief that Dion is a weak leader... in English anyways. In French he sounds quite passionate and confident, in English he sounds meak and self-questioning. If he were to talk to me at random and I didn't know who he was, I'd predict a big computer nerd that rarely sees the light of day.

When I was at the convention yesterday, I was standing beside the small Volpe delegation which was beside Dion's delegation. At one moment, I looked across and I saw Dion walking alone through the chairs and he seemed so ordinary, just another delegate.

When I said weak leader, I meant that he may have trouble imposing his authority. Dion's under pressure to have an election quickly but his own instinct may be instead to wait and get things in order. Can impose his will on the party? He's the second choice of many people in the party.

As opposed to other leadership candidates, Dion left the floor for long absences. He's not really a people person.

Anyway, I started this threat to speculate on an election date. I think the Tories get closer to a majority government every day they stay in power so they're in no hurry to call an election. It's unlikely that the Liberals will use the BQ to bring down the government. So, it would likely be on a vote with the NDP.

I think the Liberals will go as soon as an occasion presents itself, regardless of what the polls say.

[geoffrey]

Anyway, I started this threat to speculate on an election date. I think the Tories get closer to a majority government every day they stay in power so they're in no hurry to call an election.

Where are they gaining seats? I really struggle with the reality of that statement. There is few ridings where the CPC is a position to make a move on only a few points increase in popular support.

[jdobbin]

Citing an impasse on the accountability act?

On what basis will the Tories have room to do so? I figure they'll try to pass another budget and let the government fall on the budget.

I have no idea what the issue might be. They could just say that they can't get anything done in Parliament and call an election.

The Accountability Act is about to be sent back to the House so I don't know that they will be able to complain about that.

[jdobbin]

Anyway, I started this threat to speculate on an election date. I think the Tories get closer to a majority government every day they stay in power so they're in no hurry to call an election.

Where are they gaining seats? I really struggle with the reality of that statement. There is few ridings where the CPC is a position to make a move on only a few points increase in popular support.

I'd like to know where they will gain seats as well. I don't know that I've seen one poll showing them being close to a majority no matter how many months they've been in.

[Argus]

Anyway, I started this threat to speculate on an election date. I think the Tories get closer to a majority government every day they stay in power so they're in no hurry to call an election.

Where are they gaining seats? I really struggle with the reality of that statement. There is few ridings where the CPC is a position to make a move on only a few points increase in popular support.

I'd like to know where they will gain seats as well. I don't know that I've seen one poll showing them being close to a majority no matter how many months they've been in.

A better question is where are the Liberals going to gain seats? I haven't seen one poll that shows them beating the Tories, and there was a leger poll late last week that pitted all the Liberal candidates, including Dion, against Harper, and the Liberals came off 12 points or more behind in every one of them. Their last election was a major screw-up, and you think they're going to rush into an election without their policies set, and with Dion's staff hardly knowing where the toilet is and wearing name tags so they can recognize each other?

[jdobbin]

A better question is where are the Liberals going to gain seats? I haven't seen one poll that shows them beating the Tories, and there was a leger poll late last week that pitted all the Liberal candidates, including Dion, against Harper, and the Liberals came off 12 points or more behind in every one of them. Their last election was a major screw-up, and you think they're going to rush into an election without their policies set, and with Dion's staff hardly knowing where the toilet is and wearing name tags so they can recognize each other?

I never said the Liberals were going to win. I just don't think the Tories will win a majority given the present numbers.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The Liberals don't need an election at this point, but they do need election issues to come to the forefront of the political tide. What they need is to be on the same side of the tide as the public. In other words, they need to either find an issue on which to place Harper on the wrong side of public opinion or create one through spin or scandal.

I don't expect anything immediate like in terms of a federal election because the Liberals need an issue which they can exploit.

[Wilber]

Depends on how bad the Bloc and NDP want an election. The Liberals can't defeat the government without them.

[Hydraboss]

What if they decided to stoke the "anti-west" sentiment? You know, environmental issues, the west is evil (ala Chretien), etc... Dion doesn't have a hope of increasing Liberal fortunes west of Winnipeg, so he really has nothing to lose. If he could start the east vs west fire again, he may stand a chance of gaining votes. There may not be any real issues to increase partisanship in the country and therefore be able to exploit, but he could try and create one.

[Canadian Blue]

I don't think Canadian's even want an election. I'd imagine that unless it was necessary, Canadian's would be pissed about having to vote again simply because some guy doesn't like being in opposition.

[watching&waiting]

There will be an election this spring and it will be Harper who will have it declared. Just watch the polls starting next week and you will see that Dion as leader will cost the Liberals votes. As I said in the thread about Dion winning, he has nothing to offer the people, and now that he is the leader there is no hope of the change that the public wanted so much. But things are what there are, and we will have to look and see what and where things will come from with the nnew leader. I still do not see Dion as a uniting leader, and if anything I think the party will again be split on the lines of Chretien loyalists and the newer and younger members. I guess what I am saying is they just had a leadership convention to go back to exactly what the people were all hoping they would leave behind.

For those who keep saying show me the polls, I suggest you wait to say February and you will see exactly what I am saying.

[bk59]

I think the Liberals will bring down the government at the first opportunity. They want an election soon. I don't think they will hold a policy conference before the next election. The Liberals don't think they did anything wrong or that they are doing anything wrong. In their view, they lost power to Harper by accident.

I might be wrong on this because we don't quite know how Dion will govern as leader. He might be the cautious type and want to wait until he has everything the way he wants it. The pressure will be great for him to go to an election. IOW, I think Dion might be a weak leader.

The Liberals are pumped. So, how soon will we have an election?

Didn't the Liberals vote on policy questions at the convention? Why would they need another conference for that? Or do you mean a policy conference in terms of getting the party's riding candidates together?

A bunch of people think the Liberals might try to force an early election. I think the Conservatives might push for an early election. So much attention was focused on Ignatieff and Rae that Canadians don't really know Dion. The Conservatives can use that to their advantage in an early election, but not so much if Dion gets a chance to show himself in the House and let Canadians get to know him before an election.

[August1991]

I haven't seen one poll that shows them beating the Tories, and there was a leger poll late last week that pitted all the Liberal candidates, including Dion, against Harper, and the Liberals came off 12 points or more behind in every one of them.

That poll put the Tories at 38% which is barely what they need to get a majority. Depending on vote splits in ridings, that's possible since they would need 25 more seats.

More likely though, the united right, and Dion as leader, means that Canada is in for minority governments.

Harper and the Tories have every interest in continuing to govern. Every day they are in power means another day to show Canadians that they are a good, honest and effective government. The sky hasn't fallen in. The main Liberal/NDP argument against Harper was based on fear. It doesn't work now.

I don't think Dion wants an early election; but those in the party will push for it.

Didn't the Liberals vote on policy questions at the convention? Why would they need another conference for that? Or do you mean a policy conference in terms of getting the party's riding candidates together?

They did but it's impossible to have a policy conference when selecting a leader. If Dion were smart, he would hold another conference and take time to renew the party. Instead, he's likely to go along with people in the party who want an election. He'll run on his three pillar programme and be somewhat in the situation of Harper in 2004.

No one really knows what the Liberal Party stands for or even what Dion wants - except that they want to defeat Harper and get back into power.

[Leader Circle]

I haven't seen one poll that shows them beating the Tories, and there was a leger poll late last week that pitted all the Liberal candidates, including Dion, against Harper, and the Liberals came off 12 points or more behind in every one of them.

That poll put the Tories at 38% which is barely what they need to get a majority. Depending on vote splits in ridings, that's possible since they would need 25 more seats.

More likely though, the united right, and Dion as leader, means that Canada is in for minority governments.

Harper and the Tories have every interest in continuing to govern. Every day they are in power means another day to show Canadians that they are a good, honest and effective government. The sky hasn't fallen in. The main Liberal/NDP argument against Harper was based on fear. It doesn't work now.

I don't think Dion wants an early election; but those in the party will push for it.

Didn't the Liberals vote on policy questions at the convention? Why would they need another conference for that? Or do you mean a policy conference in terms of getting the party's riding candidates together?

They did but it's impossible to have a policy conference when selecting a leader. If Dion were smart, he would hold another conference and take time to renew the party. Instead, he's likely to go along with people in the party who want an election. He'll run on his three pillar programme and be somewhat in the situation of Harper in 2004.

No one really knows what the Liberal Party stands for or even what Dion wants - except that they want to defeat Harper and get back into power.

I guess the scary thing in all of this is the media. Why would they give a shit what the people of Canada want? They never have. The media desperately wants an election, so much so, the coverage of the liberal leadership has been non-stop. I am so tired of hearing about the liberals, yet the media seems destined to bring it back, regardless of their newly minted, former Chretien flunky, still corrupt, Dion!

Despite the fact I hate anything Liberal and now some things red(because of what it represents), I was happy to hear that a corrupt Quebec Lib won the role. I think, there could be nothing better to secure a Conservative majority!!

As far as an election, it would be the worst political move ever for the Libs. Remember the last Liberal win, how disorganized the new CPC looked? The Libs need time to get their, how to trick Canadians into believing we are honest facade, planned. That feat should take a considerable amount of time, if you look at the wingnut they picked!

[Saturn]

All this paranoia in the conservative fan base just shows how freaked out the party operatives must be.

The liberals won't bring Harper down. He will do it himself ASAP. He just can't afford to let the Liberals get things in order - he needs them to be unprepared for the election. But he will need a month or so to pad the next budget (expect lots of presents for everyone). Besides he can't call it a week after the Liberal convention - that will make him look real bad. But give it a month or two and we'll be heading for the polls.

[jbg]

Were I Dion, I would go for the throat immediately. When you've got the party momentum as he does right now, you don't wait for the rest of Canada to figure out who you are or what you stand for. He should play on Harper's lying about the income trusts, and Afgan.. I would hate to see the Lib's win, but if they are to have any hope, it had better be sooner than later. Once the ROC gets to know Dion and equates him with Kwebek, he's done.

He better do it quick.

He's not exactly an unknown quantity to the ROC.

[jbg]

I don't think Canadian's even want an election. I'd imagine that unless it was necessary, Canadian's would be pissed about having to vote again simply because some guy doesn't like being in opposition.

Can someone explain to me, as an American, why I constantly hear that "Canadians don't want an election"? It seems to me that going to the polls is not much of a bother. Especially so with advance voting, etc.

I personally go the polls a minimum of twice a year (regular Election Day and the school budget), and usually four times a year (those plus Village elections and on even number years a Democratic primary).

It just doesn't seem like a big deal. Why do Canadians dislike it so much

[Argus]

A better question is where are the Liberals going to gain seats? I haven't seen one poll that shows them beating the Tories, and there was a leger poll late last week that pitted all the Liberal candidates, including Dion, against Harper, and the Liberals came off 12 points or more behind in every one of them. Their last election was a major screw-up, and you think they're going to rush into an election without their policies set, and with Dion's staff hardly knowing where the toilet is and wearing name tags so they can recognize each other?

I never said the Liberals were going to win. I just don't think the Tories will win a majority given the present numbers.

And why would the Liberals force an election they can't win?

[Argus]

So much attention was focused on Ignatieff and Rae that Canadians don't really know Dion. The Conservatives can use that to their advantage in an early election, but not so much if Dion gets a chance to show himself in the House and let Canadians get to know him before an election.

Actually, I wonder how much the attention focussed on Rae and Iggy buoyed the Liberals? They were fresh outsiders who put a different face on Liberalism. Now they're both gone. Neither will be in the next election. Iggy will go back to Harvard, and within a few months probably be talking about embarrassing things the Liberals would rather not get out.

The "fresh" face of the Liberals? An old, tired, party insider, a Chretien loyalist, another Quebec leader who can barely speak English, only this one without any charisma either.

I think that the polls for the Liberals will rise in the very short term because of all the press coverage, then start falling.

[Argus]

I don't think Canadian's even want an election. I'd imagine that unless it was necessary, Canadian's would be pissed about having to vote again simply because some guy doesn't like being in opposition.

Can someone explain to me, as an American, why I constantly hear that "Canadians don't want an election"? It seems to me that going to the polls is not much of a bother. Especially so with advance voting, etc.

People get tired of hearing about all the politics, day in and day, out, the constant politicing gets on peoples nerves. I don't know how you stand it as an American, with major federal elections every two years.