Alberta Leadership Race

[Jerry J. Fortin]

This week it has become known that some of the leading contenders for the vacant Premiers position are actually talking about resource royalty reforms. This is a very large problem for Alberta politicians. For decades the Alberta government has created concessions to provide incentives for oil companies to invest in the tar sands. The government has finally figured out that they have cornered themselves. With conventional reserves down and the huge increase in tar sands investment the province actually faces a cash crunch. Unless the province acts to change the tax regime it put in place Alberta citizens will very soon be facing an actual decline in resource revenue in spite of increased production and the massive investment in the tar sands.

The next Premier will face a sharp increase in demand for services by the thousands of citizens moving into the province while its revenues decline. Hardly an enviable position to find themselves in. Strangely enough oil rich Alberta faces a cash crunch just down the road.

[B. Max]

This week it has become known that some of the leading contenders for the vacant Premiers position are actually talking about resource royalty reforms. This is a very large problem for Alberta politicians. For decades the Alberta government has created concessions to provide incentives for oil companies to invest in the tar sands. The government has finally figured out that they have cornered themselves. With conventional reserves down and the huge increase in tar sands investment the province actually faces a cash crunch. Unless the province acts to change the tax regime it put in place Alberta citizens will very soon be facing an actual decline in resource revenue in spite of increased production and the massive investment in the tar sands.

The next Premier will face a sharp increase in demand for services by the thousands of citizens moving into the province while its revenues decline. Hardly an enviable position to find themselves in. Strangely enough oil rich Alberta faces a cash crunch just down the road.

Like before Alberta has a spending problem not a revenue problem. There won't be anybody moving here because the jobs have already started to disappear.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

There are numerous spin doctors in Alberta that predict a population growth of more than 4% per annum. This is actually modest in my opinion. I would venture to say that there is more than likely 7% right now. The current rate of economic expansion will last for at least a decade, based upon the known mega-projects in the oil patch. The math suggests that even with a 4% rate of population growth we will increase our citizens to the tune of 40% by 2016!

This is a problem for the folks at the Alberta Legislature to ponder. I am not real comfortble with the current government being able to create a functional solution to this impending problem. Then again the alternatives under the current slate of prospectives partisan leaders is even less attractive. Dodge City will come under some friendly fire damned quickly unless citizens decide to take some corrective action.

[fellowtraveller]

I'm more concerned with the policy on shipping raw bitumen out of the province to be upgraded and refined elsewhere, as per the Encana announcement today.

Hewers of wood indeed

[geoffrey]

I'm more concerned with the policy on shipping raw bitumen out of the province to be upgraded and refined elsewhere, as per the Encana announcement today.

Hewers of wood indeed

It'd be nice to have it refined in Alberta, but as a free-trade advocate, I'm less certain it's just to put up barriers. When dealing with resources, the inherent wealth of the province, different thoughts can apply.

The question is, are we getting fair value for the bitumen... I'd say yes. So the resource isn't being plundered from abroad. Do we lack refining capacity that would make us much richer, absolutely, and I'd like to see the province set up more incentives for producers to refine at home.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I'm more concerned with the policy on shipping raw bitumen out of the province to be upgraded and refined elsewhere, as per the Encana announcement today.

Hewers of wood indeed

It'd be nice to have it refined in Alberta, but as a free-trade advocate, I'm less certain it's just to put up barriers. When dealing with resources, the inherent wealth of the province, different thoughts can apply.

The question is, are we getting fair value for the bitumen... I'd say yes. So the resource isn't being plundered from abroad. Do we lack refining capacity that would make us much richer, absolutely, and I'd like to see the province set up more incentives for producers to refine at home.

I would say no, we are not getting fair value. Bitumen has a far lower price than crude oil doesn't it? The 50% price cut also treads on royalty revenues to a large degree. Couple that with the ludicrous tax regime regarding oil sands investments and you get a 1% royalty on half price oil! Three cheers for the Conservative government of Alberta! Who else could come up with such a great deal.

The people of this province will soon begin to discover the depths of the incompetence surrounding the Klein government. At that point the bell will toll for them as it did for the Socreds.

[B. Max]

There are numerous spin doctors in Alberta that predict a population growth of more than 4% per annum. This is actually modest in my opinion. I would venture to say that there is more than likely 7% right now. The current rate of economic expansion will last for at least a decade, based upon the known mega-projects in the oil patch. The math suggests that even with a 4% rate of population growth we will increase our citizens to the tune of 40% by 2016!

This is a problem for the folks at the Alberta Legislature to ponder. I am not real comfortble with the current government being able to create a functional solution to this impending problem. Then again the alternatives under the current slate of prospectives partisan leaders is even less attractive. Dodge City will come under some friendly fire damned quickly unless citizens decide to take some corrective action.

That's kinda like predicting the weather in Alberta. The Oil sands are only a part of the oil patch. There are billions invested every year in conventional oil. Take Grande Prairie for instance. It is a boom town / city and there isn't an oil sands plant within about 500 miles of it as the crow flys. I tell you things are starting to slow down and people are just now beginning to talk about it. This winter will tell the tail. As for the oil sands, the government made a good deal as far as royalties are concerned. The ones that have been raising all the fuse about it are the same ones trying to kill off any new plants.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Things are indeed beginning to slow down in conventuional oil production. At present Alberta gains more from natyural gas than conventional oil in royalties. New conventional oil finds are becoming rather scare in Alberta, as is new finds of gas. On the other hand, there is massive development ongoing in tar sands development with projects planned up to 2015. Conventional oil production is dropping as rapidly as tar sands is expanding, and the difference is about 16% in terms of royalty revenue losses. We face grave problems ahead.

[B. Max]

Things are indeed beginning to slow down in conventuional oil production. At present Alberta gains more from natyural gas than conventional oil in royalties. New conventional oil finds are becoming rather scare in Alberta, as is new finds of gas. On the other hand, there is massive development ongoing in tar sands development with projects planned up to 2015. Conventional oil production is dropping as rapidly as tar sands is expanding, and the difference is about 16% in terms of royalty revenue losses. We face grave problems ahead.

They are slowing down yes, but there is still plenty to do. Drilling continues to this day in most of the first fields that were discovered in Alberta. It is the oil companies who are cutting back budgets for various reasons. Some of it due to inflation and some of it due to government foot dragging with permits. The oil companies are getting pissed off and I don't really blame them. The permit thing has become ridiculous. The environment department along with the rest of this government needs a real good house cleaning.

You can't compare the cost of conventional oil recovery and the cost of oil sands recovery. The difference in the royalty rate is due to the high initial start up costs for oil sands before production starts. Investors are not going to lay out billions of dollars to build an oil sands plant and then when it comes into production watch the government take the money before they recover their costs. We have a government again, who's spending is out of control and who is spending like drunken sailors on feel goods while at the same time have no money to complete the road projects which is one of their main areas of responsibilities. Highway 43 and 63 being two good examples.

[Black Dog]

Bump.

It all hits the fan this weekend. Looks like Jim Dinning, who seemed to be leading the charge early, is now facing serious challenges from Oberg and Morton. First ballot is Saturday. These are exciting times for the usually moribund political scene in Alberta.

[geoffrey]

Bump.

It all hits the fan this weekend. Looks like Jim Dinning, who seemed to be leading the charge early, is now facing serious challenges from Oberg and Morton. First ballot is Saturday. These are exciting times for the usually moribund political scene in Alberta.

The question is, do we have the PM and Premier of Alberta both as writers of the Alberta agenda letter?

That's sending a message. Maybe Morton is the vote of choice. Does that mean he loses his Senate appointment?

[Black Dog]

The question is, do we have the PM and Premier of Alberta both as writers of the Alberta agenda letter?

You mean the firewall letter. possibly.

That's sending a message. Maybe Morton is the vote of choice. Does that mean he loses his Senate appointment?

Before or after he loses the government? the Tories need soemone young and engergetic, not a dinosaur like Morton. If they do choose him, however, it will be a great boost for the opposition parties.

[geoffrey]

There's opposition parties? Huh?!

I don't think so BD, there is no organized opposition in Alberta. Won't happen for at least a few terms.

[Black Dog]

There's opposition parties? Huh?!

I don't think so BD, there is no organized opposition in Alberta. Won't happen for at least a few terms.

Well, i'll leave aside the reason why there's no organized opposition in Alberta, and just say this: if Morton wins, there wil be a significant exodus from the Tories. unless someone wants to start a new party, a lot of those folks will turn to the Liberals.

[Canadian Blue]

Black Dog, you know Alberta politics. The next new government will come up from nowhere. Lougheed went from 6 seats to majority government within four years. I'd imagine if Morton win's the Alliance vote will go to the Tories, and the moderate tories will simply form a new party.

[Black Dog]

Black Dog, you know Alberta politics. The next new government will come up from nowhere. Lougheed went from 6 seats to majority government within four years. I'd imagine if Morton win's the Alliance vote will go to the Tories, and the moderate tories will simply form a new party.

I dunno. Lougheed didn't build the Conservatives, he just renewed their fortunes. It takes a lot of work to get a new party off the ground and we're looking at an election as early as '08, so time is short. I can't see why the Liberals wouldn't be a good home for any disenchanted Red Tories. Alberta's future prosperity depends on having an urban centric, fiscally conservative and socialy moderate party at the tiller, a party that is focused on economic sustainability, democratic reform, the environment, and the future. The Liberals can easily fill that role.

[geoffrey]

They could, but it doesn't mean Albertans will vote for them.

They have a completely incompetent leader in Kevin Taft, replace him with someone more charismatic and much more competent, then sure. I don't even know if they've released a platform in some time... who knows what they stand for?

Make it too Liberal and no one will buy it though.

[Black Dog]

They have a completely incompetent leader in Kevin Taft, replace him with someone more charismatic and much more competent, then sure. I don't even know if they've released a platform in some time... who knows what they stand for?

I don't know where you get the idea that Taft is incompotent. He's done a pretty decent job, given the situation, though he is generally regarded as being too nice. As for not knowing what they stand for: since when has that stopped anyone from forming the government?

Make it too Liberal and no one will buy it though.

Depends what you mean by "too Liberal". Don't let the election results fool you: Albertans aren't all that enamoured of the Tories.

[Canadian Blue]

I dunno. Lougheed didn't build the Conservatives, he just renewed their fortunes. It takes a lot of work to get a new party off the ground and we're looking at an election as early as '08, so time is short. I can't see why the Liberals wouldn't be a good home for any disenchanted Red Tories. Alberta's future prosperity depends on having an urban centric, fiscally conservative and socialy moderate party at the tiller, a party that is focused on economic sustainability, democratic reform, the environment, and the future. The Liberals can easily fill that role.

You'd have to include defending provincial interest's, which is one of the reason's I think the Liberal's haven't really had much momentum to go on. I'd even argue the 2001 election was largely a reaction to the 2000 election when many Albertan's believed the federal Liberal's were actively campaigning against Alberta.

I think that the provincial Liberal's were even considering a name change so people wouldn't think of them as the equivalent of the federal Liberal's. Plus I think Kevin Taft would have to go, doesn't really seem to have what it takes to get people from across the party under the Liberal party tent.

[Black Dog]

You'd have to include defending provincial interest's, which is one of the reason's I think the Liberal's haven't really had much momentum to go on. I'd even argue the 2001 election was largely a reaction to the 2000 election when many Albertan's believed the federal Liberal's were actively campaigning against Alberta.

I'd be curious to know how many Albertans really continue to live in fear of Ottawa and the ROC and how much is just groundless conventional political wisdom. What I'm saying is I think Albertans, like anyone, are more concerened with the day to day things that affect them most. The PCs have long paid lip service to real needs while constantly beating the western ailenation drum (The Klein government was necver adverse to picking fights with Ottawa or even inventing scray stories to keep the western alienation spectre alive), so a party hoping to challenge would do well to avoid the same trap.

[Canadian Blue]

I agree, however it also important that Albertan's know if lets say Ottawa were to ever bring about an NEP 2 that the government would defend Alberta. I think the Provincial Liberal's do have good policies with regards to education, and democratic renewal. However they have to find a way to get seats from rural areas which are largely social conservative as well as fiscally conservative.

[Black Dog]

I agree, however it also important that Albertan's know if lets say Ottawa were to ever bring about an NEP 2 that the government would defend Alberta. I think the Provincial Liberal's do have good policies with regards to education, and democratic renewal. However they have to find a way to get seats from rural areas which are largely social conservative as well as fiscally conservative.

So, basically yopu're saying that for a party to have success in Alberta, they must pay lip service to two of the great Alberta shibboleths: rural-based "conservatism" and western alienation. I wish you weren't right, but you probably are. Albertans are, contrary to their maverick self-image, a reactionary and conformist lot. Any party that speaks in language unfamiliar to Alberta ears would indeed have a tough go of it.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The Americans are banging the BSE drum again, wait for the twist. The candidate that does the best job of getting under Harpers skin will get the biggest share of the first ballot. Either Canada goes to bat for Alberta or there will be hell to pay in River City. In this province you either stand up for Albertans or you don't, those that don't simply aren't elected. While we now have a 65% to 35% urban vs rural population split the apple does not fall far from the tree and we are stil pretty darned conservative or right winged in out political views. But that doesn't translate into PC support the way it used to, probably because of the split. The Tories lost seats last time around because Albertans didn't like the approach used to deal with the debt load. By the way, that was a platform plank stolen from the Liberal leader Decore, it certainly wasn't Klein who came up with it. Albertans paid dearly to deal with the debt dragon, only to be lied to by their government. Service levels have still not returned to past bench marks even after all the privatization and deregulation which in truth cost citizens more in asset losses than it returned in benefits. The PC party is old in Alberta political terms. A party that takes a different approach could well garner support, and possibly bring some apathetic voters to the voting booth. Things are beginning to happen in Alberta.

[geoffrey]

It looks like the first ballot will between Dinning and Morton for the win according to today's Herald. Apparently Morton's 'reactionary' stances are attractive Mr. BD.

Are you voting in the election BD?

[Canadian Blue]

Pretty well any Albertan can vote in the PC Leadership race. If I was still living in Alberta I would have probably gotten a membership. However, I think if the Liberal's were to present a constructive opposition to the PC's they could possibly win an election. With Albertan's they can switch political alliegances in a day if they are unhappy with the situation.

If the Liberal's are to be successful they have to show off their democratic renewal policies, education, fiscal, and environment policies. All of which could help bring more votes to their party in the next election.

I'd even say go for a name change, something Taft was contemplating, but I doubt that will ever happen.