Which Liberal candidate can defeat Harper?

[August1991]

This thread follows from here.

This is a tough question.

Ignatieff will draw off the right wing vote - leaving Layton with the Left. Rae will leave Harper alone on the right. Dion will do better in Quebec if only as a Favourite Son - a Harper vs. Dion election in modern Quebec will be a sight to see. (Andre Arthur will support Harper indirectly... )

Then again, Rae is passionate about this country. Harper is blandly WASP English Canadian. And Ignatieff is a flake.

Which Liberal leadership candidate has the best chance to defeat Harper?

[jbg]

This thread follws from here.

Hopefully none.

[geoffrey]

You forgot to link August.

Anyways. Best candidate to defeat Harper? At this point, I'd say they are all incompetent and none of them are appealing much, and Harper is the best candidate to defeat Harper.

I support him on Afghanistan, but I fear Canada does not support the mission. It could be costly.

[jdobbin]

I support him on Afghanistan, but I fear Canada does not support the mission. It could be costly.

Sometimes governments defeat themselves.

[Ricki Bobbi]

OK.

Let's say there are only four candidates that have a realistic chance to win. Ignatieff, Rae, Kennedy and Dion.

Here's a brief rundown of the big four.

Ignatieff has a lot of issues. Weak on the left flank because of Afghanistan. Propensity to misspeak. Has lived in Canada for how many months as an adult? On the plus side he has a hell of team working for him and is leading but not enough.

Can Rae overcome the failed Premiership of Ontario? That seems like the only major strike against him. Seems like any centre-right voters he might lose because of that time could be overcome by centre-left voters.

Kennedy isn't the most experience and has issues with his French. If he could avoid rookie mistakes he could catch a wave but there are a lot of pitfalls out there.

Dion struggles in English, and isn't a favourite son in Quebec by any stretch. (Sorry August, but he isn't well thought of in la belle provenc.) Also got a pretty strong team, but I don't really see much upside for Dion.

My feeling is that in all probablities Rae would be the toughest opponent for the Conservatives to beat in a general election. If he won the MSM would be falling over themselves to write stories of redemption. But Kennedy could be scary.

I think Iggy and Dion would be relatively easy to beat for a variety of reasons.

[August1991]

You forgot to link August.

Done.

As a public personality, Dryden is worse than Harper. Dryden has no persona - he's all dim-witted policy advisor. Like Kennedy, his French doesn't work. John Crosbie said it best - it is no longer possible to be Prime Minister of Canada unless you are bilingual. In the future, the criteria for selection will be even higher. In a different thread, I referred to a debate about Quebec pacifism. A Canadian Prime Minister must be able to hold her/his own in such a debate. Dion could. Ignatieff and Rae would gain admirable acceptance.

The only Liberal candidates who can defeat Harper are among those three: Rae, Ignatieff, Dion.

Rae would leave the Right to Harper - but the guy is so damned passionate about Canada, he'd make Harper look pathetic.

Ignatieff would split the Right - what would Harper do? Play on Layton to squeeze the middle?

Dion - well, Dion is grilled cheese. I think the Liberals will choose Dion but then be astonished to learn that English-Canadians are tired of having another French-speaking Prime Minister.

The Liberals have a tough choice. People like Jason Cherniak have no principles - they want power (they call it compromise). And it's not obvious which candidate is best placed to achieve what they want.

Canada is about to undergo an interesting change, I think.

[geoffrey]

This thread follows from here.

This is a tough question.

Ignatieff will draw off the right wing vote - leaving Layton with the Left. Rae will leave Harper alone on the right. Dion will do better in Quebec if only as a Favourite Son - a Harper vs. Dion election in modern Quebec will be a sight to see. (Andre Arthur will support Harper indirectly... )

Then again, Rae is passionate about this country. Harper is blandly WASP English Canadian. And Ignatieff is a flake.

Which Liberal leadership candidate has the best chance to defeat Harper?

Now that you've expanded...

I really object to your belief that Ignatieff is right-wing. The only right-wing part of that man is his foreign policy. If Ignatieff wins, the Liberals lose their only strong attack against the CPC, being Afghanistan.

Here's some quotes from your "right-wing" boy in an interview with Evan Solomon on CBC (link).

Certain parts of me are utterly unchanged, I’m a kind of Pierre Trudeau, gay marriage, tax and spend liberal on the social domestic side, pretty well unchanged since the sixties, in fact confirmed by events. I think I’ve got tougher on the international side, more hawkish because of the combined effect of watching ethnic cleansing in Bosnia, seeing what it looks like – seeing the Kosovo intervention.

Seeing that, and part of I think what has changed is being driven slowly mad by arguing with the liberal left and socialist left in North America the kind of constantly growing Chomskian anti-Americanism has pushed me. Sometimes too far. That is I’m not an apologist for Bush, I’m a blue-state tax and spend liberal as I’ve said – never support him domestically, and I wouldn’t support him internationally because this was a regime which was incompetent, untruthful…

I agree nearly 100% with Ignatieff's foreign policy, if Harper made him foreign affairs minister I'd be very happy. But domestically, we are looking at Trudeau Jr.. He even aspires to be so. Not a right-wing boy when it comes to our daily lives, and that's what really counts, right?

[Ricki Bobbi]

I agree nearly 100% with Ignatieff's foreign policy, if Harper made him foreign affairs minister I'd be very happy. But domestically, we are looking at Trudeau Jr.. He even aspires to be so. Not a right-wing boy when it comes to our daily lives, and that's what really counts, right?

OMG, wouldn't that be Harper's wet dream. Iggy loses the leadership because of an ABI movement that leads to Rae, or Kennedy, taking the crown. Iggy gets p.o.'d and crosses the floor. MacKay is *promoted* to Deputy PM, but loses any real power and Ignatieff becomes Minister of Foreign Affairs. Man that would be great. Wouldn't really have much effect on the election but it would be fun to watch.

[August1991]

I really object to your belief that Ignatieff is right-wing. The only right-wing part of that man is his foreign policy. If Ignatieff wins, the Liberals lose their only strong attack against the CPC, being Afghanistan.

...

I agree nearly 100% with Ignatieff's foreign policy, if Harper made him foreign affairs minister I'd be very happy. But domestically, we are looking at Trudeau Jr.. He even aspires to be so. Not a right-wing boy when it comes to our daily lives, and that's what really counts, right?

Geoffrey, you make good points.

Ignatieff is clearly a journalistic hawk on foreign policy issues, and he's expressed various opinions about domestic issues. He seems to think Canada is a great country, but he also defends the Kurds right to self-determination and wants Quebec to find its place in the universe. I'm confused.

Other than a carbon tax, which I suspect is a recent fad, I'm not certain what Ignatieff thinks about fiscal policies.

I call Ignatieff "right wing" because on one serious issue, he has said that he defends individual rights. The serious issue? In a Canadian context, he defended Bush Jnr's invasion of Iraq. In a general election against Ignatieff, Harper would not have to defend his foreign policy. To the NDP, Ignatieff's Right Wing - or in NDP-world, Ignatieff's pro-American.

----

Whoever the Liberals choose, political junkie Canadians will possibly witness a fascinating election. Rae, Ignatieff and Dion are all - like Harper - policy wonks.

[bradco]

Although Ignatieff supported the invasion of Iraq it was for very different reasons than Bush. He was personally appalled by the suffering of the Kurds and saw ousting Hussein as absolutly necessary to liberate ethnic groups in iraq. I believe Ignatieff has publicly stated that he disagrees with the way in which the war was carried out by the Bush administration. The more he would be able to get this across to voters the more dangerous he becomes to Harper since Ignatieff would be able to appeal to the right on foreign policy while still being able to capture the left (especially with his domestic policies).

[jbg]

OMG, wouldn't that be Harper's wet dream. Iggy loses the leadership because of an ABI movement that leads to Rae, or Kennedy, taking the crown. Iggy gets p.o.'d and crosses the floor. MacKay is *promoted* to Deputy PM, but loses any real power and Ignatieff becomes Minister of Foreign Affairs. Man that would be great. Wouldn't really have much effect on the election but it would be fun to watch.

As I've pointed out on "Emerson threads" on other boards, Reagan built the latest iteration of the Republican Party by using "crossover Democrats" such as Jeanne Kirkpatrick, Rudolph Giuliani and William Bennett. Bush Jr. continued the tradition with Wolfowitz.

Maybe the "aisle cross" can occur pre-election, with an accompanying Cabinet reshuffle.

[Ricki Bobbi]

As I've pointed out on "Emerson threads" on other boards, Reagan built the latest iteration of the Republican Party by using "crossover Democrats" such as Jeanne Kirkpatrick, Rudolph Giuliani and William Bennett. Bush Jr. continued the tradition with Wolfowitz.

Maybe the "aisle cross" can occur pre-election, with an accompanying Cabinet reshuffle.

A Cabinet shuffle is a possibility, but not for a little while.

The fall won't see a shuffle. Ambrose will get the chance to prove herself on environment. Clement on health and MacKay will get the chance to do something.

The budget probably comes in February so look for a shuffle after that. Far too early to speculate who's in or out at this point, but *IF* nothing changes those three may be on the outside looking in.

[Arcadian00]

If someone could finally convince McKenna to run, he'd give Harper a run for his money.

Besides that, I think Harper will be a little more defetable when the full efects of his economic reforms become apparent.

[fellowtraveller]

The candiafte that the Liberals elect may not be the same one that could defeat Harper.....

I think the Libs will take the safe - and incorrect path - of choosing Dion. He'll be rejected by most of Anglo-Canada as being too much part of the old boy network that brought down the Lib machine. I also think that Dion will be mostly rejected in Quebec as well, despite being the only Francophone party leader.

They should be picking Rae, who is certainly far enough left to garner support in Quebec both for his background and current policies, will attract and retain the soft left Liberal/NDP vote everywhere, and will retain much of the Metro Toronto Liberal heartland since the voters there will either not remember or won't care about the travesty of a government he once led.

They should take Rae, they will take Dion and it will cost them a minority govt and deliver a majority to Harper.

Is it still possible for McKenna rto run?

Because if he did, he would win the leadership easily and likely defeat Harper..

[Hicksey]

You forgot to link August.

Done.

As a public personality, Dryden is worse than Harper. Dryden has no persona - he's all dim-witted policy advisor. Like Kennedy, his French doesn't work. John Crosbie said it best - it is no longer possible to be Prime Minister of Canada unless you are bilingual. In the future, the criteria for selection will be even higher. In a different thread, I referred to a debate about Quebec pacifism. A Canadian Prime Minister must be able to hold her/his own in such a debate. Dion could. Ignatieff and Rae would gain admirable acceptance.

The only Liberal candidates who can defeat Harper are among those three: Rae, Ignatieff, Dion.

Rae would leave the Right to Harper - but the guy is so damned passionate about Canada, he'd make Harper look pathetic.

Ignatieff would split the Right - what would Harper do? Play on Layton to squeeze the middle?

Dion - well, Dion is grilled cheese. I think the Liberals will choose Dion but then be astonished to learn that English-Canadians are tired of having another French-speaking Prime Minister.

The Liberals have a tough choice. People like Jason Cherniak have no principles - they want power (they call it compromise). And it's not obvious which candidate is best placed to achieve what they want.

Canada is about to undergo an interesting change, I think.

Are you kidding? Rae is loathed in Ontario. His record of mismanagement still commands anger ten years later. Is he hoping people will either have forgotten he couldn't run a province or believe he's learned his lesson and he can now be trusted with an entire country?

[August1991]

The candiafte that the Liberals elect may not be the same one that could defeat Harper.....

I think the Libs will take the safe - and incorrect path - of choosing Dion. He'll be rejected by most of Anglo-Canada as being too much part of the old boy network that brought down the Lib machine. I also think that Dion will be mostly rejected in Quebec as well, despite being the only Francophone party leader.

They should be picking Rae, who is certainly far enough left to garner support in Quebec both for his background and current policies, will attract and retain the soft left Liberal/NDP vote everywhere, and will retain much of the Metro Toronto Liberal heartland since the voters there will either not remember or won't care about the travesty of a government he once led.

They should take Rae, they will take Dion and it will cost them a minority govt and deliver a majority to Harper.

Is it still possible for McKenna rto run?

Because if he did, he would win the leadership easily and likely defeat Harper.

I agree fellow, except for the bit about McKenna. I also think Dion will conserve the federalist seats in Quebec and depending on who he gets to run, Dion will stand up well against the BQ. Quebec City and the Beauce might be interesting!

The G & M published an interesting poll among voting Liberal members:

Michael Ignatieff

First choice: 19%

2nd choice: 12%

3rd choice: 13%

***

Bob Rae

First choice: 17%

2nd choice: 23%

3rd choice: 12%

***

Stéphane Dion

First choice: 13%

2nd choice: 17%

3rd choice: 14%

What's intersting here is that if you add up Rae as 1sy, 2nd and 3rd choice, you get 52%. IOW, assuming the convention delegates reflect how members think, Rae will not only do well on the first ballot but will continue to gain delegates in subsequent voting rounds.

OTOH, there's this:

But Mr. Ignatieff also has the highest negatives among the candidates, with 12 per cent saying he would be their last choice. Nine per cent felt the same way about Mr. Rae, while only 2 per cent said the same about Mr. Dion.

The very low negatives for Dion imply to me that in a split convention, he'll survive.

Ultimately, I agree with you fellow that the Liberals suspect that Dion is their best, safest bet against Harper.

[Rue]

I honestly think the person who would have the best chance debating him would be Stephane Dion who by far has the best handle on all the issues. That said the Liberals will not vote him in as they will not go for another Francophone at this time. So who does that leave. Please do not even mention Bob Rae. If he is selected they automatically give up Ontario and lose. I also don't think Ignatieff can win an election ever. I think if he is appointed, Harper will easily debate him and Iggy will stick his foot in his mouth. I think this is the worst slate of Liberal candidates ever. I also think Harper is an excellent debater. His only weakness is that he comes across as arrogant and like a bully. He has to soften up his arrogance a bit. For example last night avoiding a call from the new geek who won the New Brunswick election was mean spirited. He has to watch that kind of nastiness. It is precisely why I would say if anyone can address that nastiness its Dion who apparently had no problem handling himself with Chretien when Chretien tried to bully him. Dion is a very well rounded dude its just he is in the wrong place at the wrong time. He should have replaced Chretien years ago. Bernard Lord for sure will now run for the PC's next election and help shore up some of Harper's lack of Francophone weaknesses. Dion if given the chance would use the gun control issue to woo Quebec voters. If the Liberals weren't so hung up on the Anglo Franco rotation thing, he might suprise.

[geoffrey]

I think if he is appointed, Harper will easily debate him and Iggy will stick his foot in his mouth.

Substitute Martin for Harper and Harper for Iggy and you had a popular belief of a year ago.

[fellowtraveller]

Please do not even mention Bob Rae. If he is selected they automatically give up Ontario and lose.

Are you kidding? Rae is loathed in Ontario. His record of mismanagement still commands anger ten years later. Is he hoping people will either have forgotten he couldn't run a province or believe he's learned his lesson and he can now be trusted with an entire country?

Don't forget that you are talking about federal politics here, not provincial. He commands anger in you, but most people inclduing those in ON will just vote as they have always voted - Liberal. They know little about his past and don't care to learn. Some of the same people who hated Rae a decade ago hate him now, but it isn't enough - not nearly enough- to deny him all the GTA seats that the Liberals hold as a birthright. None of that changes with Rae, and he does not have that baggage outside Ontario with non-Tory voters. His baggage is strictly an Ontario thing, and - it won't matter that much in Metro Toronto.

Rae is electable in a general election, but I do not think he will get that far.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Don't forget that you are talking about federal politics here, not provincial. He commands anger in you, but most people inclduing those in ON will just vote as they have always voted - Liberal. They know little about his past and don't care to learn. Some of the same people who hated Rae a decade ago hate him now, but it isn't enough - not nearly enough- to deny him all the GTA seats that the Liberals hold as a birthright. None of that changes with Rae, and he does not have that baggage outside Ontario with non-Tory voters. His baggage is strictly an Ontario thing, and - it won't matter that much in Metro Toronto.

Rae is electable in a general election, but I do not think he will get that far.

I agree that Rae is electable in a general election, but think you are off the mark about people in Ontario knowing little about his past.

Just say *Rae days* to any likely voter in Ontario and you willd efinitely get a reaction of some kind.

If Rae wins the Conservatives will flood the airwaves in Ontario with reminders of the bad old days...

[watching&waiting]

It does not matter who they pick as leader as all have their weaknesses, and the CPC will make sure to point these out. CPC are the incumbents this time and many will have to admit that so far his government has done a good job and has now shed the scarey picture and theme used against him before and that would not go well in the next election.

I just do not see any of the leaders being able to beat harper unless Harper does something really dumb, and I do not think that will happen. Harper has and still is raising Canadas world profile and we will soon see that has a good chance to swing many votes his way. The extra military spending and extra troops will go over very well with the baby boomers and right now thta is a large number. All harper need to do to win a majority is carry thru with the things he promised and there will be no way that the Libs will get close. The next election he will be able to say I did what I said, and I am saying this now and again promising to do, will get him the votes he needs. If he waivers on things, then he will have a harder time but still could get his majority.

Since it is pretty certain that the choices will be Dion,Rae, or Igy, I can easily see where any of them would come with large problems. But Rae would be almost a sure bet for CPC majority. I will never forget Rea and what he did and just about every person I know has the same feelings. So Rae if he gets the liberal nod will get the back view of the ontario voters as far as I can see.

[gerryhatrick]

The leaderless Liberals are giving him a run for his money....but certainly Rae will beat him by the largest margin.

[jdobbin]

Since it is pretty certain that the choices will be Dion,Rae, or Igy, I can easily see where any of them would come with large problems. But Rae would be almost a sure bet for CPC majority. I will never forget Rea and what he did and just about every person I know has the same feelings. So Rae if he gets the liberal nod will get the back view of the ontario voters as far as I can see.

Some people said they would never support the Conservatives after Mulroney yet Mulroney was one of the big influences on the Conservatives in this last election and it didn't seem to hurt the party with the electorate this time around.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The leaderless Liberals are giving him a run for his money....but certainly Rae will beat him by the largest margin.

Contributing to the debate would be to say *something*. But you could stick to your standard *leaderless Liberals* line.

For example, why do you think Rae will beat him by the largest margin?

Yeah, that would take the ability to debate and add something to the board.

[bradco]

It does not matter who they pick as leader as all have their weaknesses, and the CPC will make sure to point these out. CPC are the incumbents this time and many will have to admit that so far his government has done a good job and has now shed the scarey picture and theme used against him before and that would not go well in the next election.

I just do not see any of the leaders being able to beat harper unless Harper does something really dumb, and I do not think that will happen. Harper has and still is raising Canadas world profile and we will soon see that has a good chance to swing many votes his way. The extra military spending and extra troops will go over very well with the baby boomers and right now thta is a large number. All harper need to do to win a majority is carry thru with the things he promised and there will be no way that the Libs will get close. The next election he will be able to say I did what I said, and I am saying this now and again promising to do, will get him the votes he needs. If he waivers on things, then he will have a harder time but still could get his majority.

Since it is pretty certain that the choices will be Dion,Rae, or Igy, I can easily see where any of them would come with large problems. But Rae would be almost a sure bet for CPC majority. I will never forget Rea and what he did and just about every person I know has the same feelings. So Rae if he gets the liberal nod will get the back view of the ontario voters as far as I can see.

most people are able to admit that the conservatives are doing a decent job but there will always be fears of the social conservative agenda coming out in a majority government.