Canadian Political Polls

[Michael Bluth]

In the 2006 election the NDP got 2,589,597 of the 14,845,680 votes cast. That is 17.44% of the total votes cast.

Seems to me like 17% is less than 17.44%.

Do explain why I'm wrong again.

Angry, angry, angry....

hahaha!! Are you serious? .44%... you are hanging your hat on .44????

you joker, joker, joker.....

So you are saying that NDP support has gone up since election day? Do explain.

VK was the one going off on the "wrong again" line.

If s/he wants to get personal with the posts they should at least be accurate No?

[Shakeyhands]

In the 2006 election the NDP got 2,589,597 of the 14,845,680 votes cast. That is 17.44% of the total votes cast.

Seems to me like 17% is less than 17.44%.

Do explain why I'm wrong again.

Angry, angry, angry....

hahaha!! Are you serious? .44%... you are hanging your hat on .44????

you joker, joker, joker.....

So you are saying that NDP support has gone up since election day? Do explain.

VK was the one going off on the "wrong again" line.

If s/he wants to get personal with the posts they should at least be accurate No?

I'm pointing out that 17% and 17.44% are statistically the same number and that therefore if you want to look at the hard numbers and accept them for fact, it would seem that NDP support could be characterized as melting albeit at a slow rate...

In your haste to attack anyone that disagrees with your view of the political scene you seem to either miss this or start taking posts out of context and spin them to your own ends.

[Michael Bluth]

I'm pointing out that 17% and 17.44% are statistically the same number and that therefore if you want to look at the hard numbers and accept them for fact, it would seem that NDP support could be characterized as melting albeit at a slow rate...

Is it the same number or is NDP support melting?

With that speed of melting the Conservatives will still be in the lead come fall of 2009.

Bottom line. The polls are pretty static these days. Nothing to be gained by any party with an early election.

It's looking for and more like we will make that October 2009 election date after all.

[Shakeyhands]

Is it the same number or is NDP support melting?

With that speed of melting the Conservatives will still be in the lead come fall of 2009.

Bottom line. The polls are pretty static these days. Nothing to be gained by any party with an early election.

It's looking for and more like we will make that October 2009 election date after all.

Its statiscally the same (+-3% right?) but if you take the numbers as a given and assume they are correct then it looks like they are melting, as i stated the first time.

you really should apologize to VK, its the 'right' thing to do. Also I believe I am still awaiting my apology from the other thread, anytime tough, no rush.

[Michael Bluth]

Its statiscally the same (+-3% right?) but if you take the numbers as a given and assume they are correct then it looks like they are melting, as i stated the first time.

you really should apologize to VK, its the 'right' thing to do. Also I believe I am still awaiting my apology from the other thread, anytime tough, no rush.

Do you have any idea what the margin of error represents? (Margin of error is that +/- 3% thing.)

Margin of error doesn't apply to actual results. It only applies to polls. Get it? Didn't think so.

There can only be a statistical similarity between two prospective results. You can't apply the same analysis when comparing actual and prospective results. Because there IS NO ERROR for actual results. The actual result is what it is.

Why should I apply to VK? Because I'm not a member of the hateocracy?

If these cries for apologies have any relation to behaviour on the board ... look in the mirror brother.

(I figure proving the pure falseness of your argument is the best way to deal with your baiting.)

[Shakeyhands]

you've got a history of calling people out, being proven wrong and then walking away. When I am mistaken I man up and apologize. You should try it, its good for the soul.

[Michael Bluth]

you've got a history of calling people out, being proven wrong and then walking away. When I am mistaken I man up and apologize. You should try it, its good for the soul.

1. Still don't see what I should apologize to VK about.

2. Again with the personal attacks?

3. Yes, you apologize all the time shakey.

[Shakeyhands]

1.

Seems to me like 17% is less than 17.44%.

Do explain why I'm wrong again.

Angry, angry, angry....

VK was the one going off on the "wrong again" line.

If s/he wants to get personal with the posts they should at least be accurate No?

So you are admitting your characterization of "melting" NDP support and "wavering" Green support was false? Good for you again.

2. How is pointing out that you refuse to apologize when your attack fails and you are proven wrong result in a personal attack? angry, angry, angry....

3. In fact the last time I apologized for being wrong, was quite coincidentally to you.

[Vancouver King]

you really should apologize to VK, its the 'right' thing to do. Also I believe I am still awaiting my apology from the other thread, anytime tough, no rush.

Thanks for the vote of support, Shakey, however an apology is not necessary.

Michael's dark mood must be considered in context: these are not exactly heady times for Conservatives, in fact the bright ones know full well there is a real possibility the govts best weeks are behind it. Poll after poll confirms his party has slipped from it's 2006 election support level. Such a cruel reward for a business-like first year.

[kimmy]

It has indeed been a businesslike first year for Harper's government.

Contrary to the view expressed above, things aren't going all that badly for the Conservatives.

The opinions coming from certain quarters would lead one to believe that each news event was the beginning of the end for Harper.

"the combat mission in Afghanistan is going to turn Canadians against Harper, especially when more casualties start coming home."

"the income trusts flip-flop is going to cost the Conservatives a lot of support!"

"the environment is going to be the issue that finishes the Conservatives!"

"the vote on gay marriage will remind everybody that they're still scary scary social conservatives!"

"Stephane Dion's magnetic personality is going to crush Conservative support! They don't stand a chance!"

"now that the Liberals have put Sponsorship behind them, people won't be mad at them anymore and people who voted Conservative to punish the Liberals will start voting Liberal again."

"now people will realize that Harper is a hypocrite because they have seen how he (insert dubious case study here.) Now people will realize that Harper is no different than the Liberals when it comes to (integrity, accountability, or whichever)!"

Despite these predictions, the Conservatives' level of support has remained remarkably stable. They remain a paltry 3 points behind election night, and still the most popular party in the country. Things are going ok for Stevie and the gang.

-k

[southerncomfort]

Right on Kimmy You forgot all the flamethrowing fearmongering socon stuff LOL

The Liberal partisans on here are conveniently forgetting its a minority gov't which ain't easy to keep any semblance order &direction when you have nearly 200 aggressive self-interested political pit bulls and their staffers with re-election dollar signs in their eyes going on the rabid attack day in day out. gee sounds like MLW

Me, I think Stephen Harper and our government have done a great job. Yup there have been some disappointments but considering how they are fending off those pit bulls waiting to rip their throats out at the first sign of weakness its been pretty reassuring specially to the general public who have been paranoid for the past 15 years about those scawy scawy Conservatives.

[jdobbin]

Despite these predictions, the Conservatives' level of support has remained remarkably stable. They remain a paltry 3 points behind election night, and still the most popular party in the country. Things are going ok for Stevie and the gang.

They're actually statistically tied for most popular party and have been for a number of weeks right now.

Decima latest poll said they have less room for growth than the Liberals do.

I think Harper fully expected to be in an election right now. The cupboard is bare and there are few new initiatives coming from the government. What we're seeing right now is drift.

[jdobbin]

Right on Kimmy You forgot all the flamethrowing fearmongering socon stuff LOL

The Liberal partisans on here are conveniently forgetting its a minority gov't which ain't easy to keep any semblance order &direction when you have nearly 200 aggressive self-interested political pit bulls and their staffers with re-election dollar signs in their eyes going on the rabid attack day in day out. gee sounds like MLW

I think Paul Martin said the same thing about minority governments and got little sympathy.

Harper's government has lost initiative and they are drifting. They'd rather prorogue Parliament that continue until June 22. There isn't anything left in the kitty.

[Michael Bluth]

They're actually statistically tied for most popular party and have been for a number of weeks right now.

The Conservatives are also within the margin of error from their results on election night. That "statistical tie" cuts both ways.

kimmy got it right. The Conservatives have performed very well their first year and a half.

They really didn't expect to be in Government this long. Nobody cares about their "drift" at the moment. People are more worried about sneaking out of the office early on Friday afternoons.

You will see something happen over the summer. A new legislative agenda with an eye to a fall election or serving until October of 2009.

That is what the shrewd tactical politician would do. No matter what the hateocracy says you they to give Harper his due as a political tactitian.

[jdobbin]

Michael's dark mood must be considered in context: these are not exactly heady times for Conservatives, in fact the bright ones know full well there is a real possibility the govts best weeks are behind it. Poll after poll confirms his party has slipped from it's 2006 election support level. Such a cruel reward for a business-like first year.

That and the fact that they seem to have run out of gas has contributed to sense of drift in Ottawa.

They return to Parliament on Monday. I wonder if they will take on some initiative or whether they will try to prorogue Parliament and have all their bills including the environment bill expunged. It seems they might not have the stomach to go the June 22.

[Canadian Blue]

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...44f1c2b&k=29309

The result, Canadian's are fine with our current minority government. I've actually been impressed with Stephen Harper thus far, and he has at the very least attempted to run a middle of the road government.

[Michael Bluth]

The Ipsos Reid survey, conducted May 22-24 exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global National, found that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative party was holding onto a steady lead with 37 per cent support, versus 31 per cent for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP.

With the Greens at nine percent.

Not even a statistical tie anymore.

So sorry Stephane.

Being the first Liberal leader in a 100 years not to become PM is historical sorta ain't it?

[Canadian Blue]

I wouldn't put to much faith in the polls at the moment. I think most Canadian's would rather not have an election, and I agree with them their is no need for one.

Even if we were to have an election I'd imagine it would be most likely a repeat of the last one. As well for some reason I have a feeling Harper will be similar to Pearson in terms of electoral success.

[jdobbin]

I wouldn't put to much faith in the polls at the moment. I think most Canadian's would rather not have an election, and I agree with them their is no need for one.

Even if we were to have an election I'd imagine it would be most likely a repeat of the last one. As well for some reason I have a feeling Harper will be similar to Pearson in terms of electoral success.

It is the first numbers in a month that have the Tories move out of a statistical tie with the Liberals.

The Ipsos Reid survey, conducted May 22-24 exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global National, found that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative party was holding onto a steady lead with 37 per cent support, versus 31 per cent for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP.

Overall, the numbers were consistent with results from the January 2006 election, with the exception of the Bloc Quebecois, which slipped to second place in Quebec with 24 per cent support, behind the Tories with 28 per cent, but ahead of the Liberals who had 20 per cent.

"It's kind of like the classical duck," said Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid. "It doesn't look like it's doing anything on the surface, but those feet are going like crazy underneath."

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 Canadians, has a 3.1 percentage point margin of error nationally, and a 6.2 percentage point margin of error in Quebec, 19 times out of 20.

As far as what Canadians want for an election, the polls also showed no one was interested in an election when the Liberals lost a non-confidence motion.

Unfortunately for the Tories, even if they wanted to go the polls, a new snap election in Quebec might make that a tough sell for the caucus.

[jdobbin]

Here is Angus Reid Strategies poll.

Angus Reid online polls always leave me shaking my head. They always seem off the numbers of any other polling firm.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/15859

Public support for the Conservative party decreased this month in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 35 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories in the next federal election.

The Liberal party is second with 28 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18 per cent, the Green party with nine per cent, and the Bloc Québécois also with nine per cent. Support for the Tories fell by four points since late March, while backing for the Grits increased by six points.

[Michael Bluth]

Here is Angus Reid Strategies poll.

Angus Reid online polls always leave me shaking my head. They always seem off the numbers of any other polling firm.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/15859

Public support for the Conservative party decreased this month in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 35 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories in the next federal election.

The Liberal party is second with 28 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18 per cent, the Green party with nine per cent, and the Bloc Québécois also with nine per cent. Support for the Tories fell by four points since late March, while backing for the Grits increased by six points.

Two polls in a row showing the CPC with at least a 6 point lead.

The fair observer would say the CPC is doing something right and/or the LPC is doing something wrong.

The biased hack blames the pollster.

[jdobbin]

There is that man crush post right after mine again. Seek help.

[Canadian Blue]

Or we could just as easily assume that the polls today aren't very accurate in predicting who would win the next election. We have seen the polls all over the place in the spring, and in all honesty it really doesn't matter since I highly doubt we'll see an election until next year.

[Michael Bluth]

There is that man crush post right after mine again. Seek help.

Then the biased hack launches a personal attack. Hate the game not the playa.

Or we could just as easily assume that the polls today aren't very accurate in predicting who would win the next election. We have seen the polls all over the place in the spring, and in all honesty it really doesn't matter since I highly doubt we'll see an election until next year.

Don't really think it is a matter of inaccuracy.

All over the place is a bit of an overstatement. Most of the polls have been pointing to CPC minorities. A very small number have pointed to either a squeaker CPC majority or a squeaker Liberal minority.

We probably won't see an election this year. But of the ADQ and PQ force a spring election then a Federal Election it is more likely.

[jdobbin]

Looks like another stalker post.