Canadian Political Polls

[geoffrey]

I don't know Harper and I've met him a few times.

Seems to be a nice guy, but why any person not close to him would think they know the man, I don't know.

Let's see what I think... hmmm... he's hard to pin down with his politics, who knows if he's NDP style spender or a CPC style cutter? He's a giant, he actually has a great deal of presence when your face to face with him. Umm... he cooks good pancakes (pancake breakfast, not at his house, don't worry)...

That's my extent of Harper knowledge.

[Canadian Blue]

The poll seems to be good news to some extent for the Tories, Liberals, and New Democrats. Apparently, the Green Party is starting to lose some support, but once again, I'm not sure this poll is very accurate. The poll I saw from Angus Reid had the Green Party close to becoming the second highest party in Alberta in term's of popularity [15% compared to the Libs 18%].

It's good news for the Conservatives in Quebec, and good news for the Liberal's in Ontario. But if an election were to be held today, I would figure we'd have the same situation.

[Michael Bluth]

Sample size still makes it difficult to get a handle on Quebec and Ontario.

Does posting the same comment about the sample sizes in a province or two make you feel like you are adding to the discussion? Because you really aren't.

If you wanted to say something helpful you could point to the trend lines in successive polls being a way to overcome the inherent limitations of smaller sample sizes in the provinces in individual polls. But that would take a little knowledge of statistical analysis.

The trend for the Conservatives in Quebec is very positive. At Christmas time nobody was talking about the Conservatives picking up seats in Quebec in the next election. They definitely should be now.

The next election is shaping up more and more as a two horse race.

The Conservatives and the Liberals are both within a point of their 2006 election results. The growth of the Greens has come at the expense of the Bloc and the NDP.

Looks like Canadians might finally be ready for majority government again.

With a race between Harper and Dion, that's an easy bet at this point...

[jdobbin]

The poll seems to be good news to some extent for the Tories, Liberals, and New Democrats. Apparently, the Green Party is starting to lose some support, but once again, I'm not sure this poll is very accurate. The poll I saw from Angus Reid had the Green Party close to becoming the second highest party in Alberta in term's of popularity [15% compared to the Libs 18%].

It's good news for the Conservatives in Quebec, and good news for the Liberal's in Ontario. But if an election were to be held today, I would figure we'd have the same situation.

The next Angus Reid Internet poll looked different from the one that you're thinking about. As mentioned, several other pollsters questioned it publicly.

The election in Quebec could be skewing the federal polls. It definitely isn't a happy poll for the Bloq but that might be temporarily a reflection of what is happening with the PQ. Who knows.

[jdobbin]

CTV poll on what people might be expecting from in the budget.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Strategic Counsel conducted the survey between March 10-13 for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

Economists have said Ottawa's planning surplus could reach $8 billion for the next fiscal year, and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is expected to include several tax cuts in the federal budget.

"It will reinforce the image voters have that these guys are pretty solid fiscal managers who care about the rich, but really don't have a common touch in synch with the general public mood," Strategic Counsel Chairman Allan Gregg told CTV.ca.

When respondents were asked what they thought to be the most important issue for the budget to address, social programs were the clear favourite:

* Increasing spending on social programs: 50 per cent

* Cutting taxes: 19 per cent

* Transferring funds to the provinces for their use: 15 per cent

* Reducing debt: 13 per cent.

"Canadians are experiencing right now something that we refer to as 'joyless prosperity,'" said Gregg.

It would seem that all the Tory talk on income splitting has seen people support the idea in the majority. It would be an incredibly expensive plan and any nation that has attempted it has had to reel it in afterwards.

[Saturn]

It would seem that all the Tory talk on income splitting has seen people support the idea in the majority. It would be an incredibly expensive plan and any nation that has attempted it has had to reel it in afterwards.

That's why I said that income splitting can win the Conservatives the election. After all, it's only fair that people should get big tax breaks for not working. The Conservatives cannot afford income-splitting but they can promise it anyway.

[jdobbin]

Tories get boost in polls as a result of the budget.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Pollster Allan Gregg says the Conservative Party's steadily-improving fortunes seem to be a reflection of their "steady, balanced approach to new initiatives."

"There's been a steady increase in Conservative support in this entire calendar year -- an eight-point climb from 31 per cent in January to 39 per cent now. And for the first time really since the summer of 2006 -- they are tied in Ontario with the Liberals" at 40 per cent, Gregg told CTV.ca.

Former Conservative MP John Reynolds, one of the prime minister's closest confidantes and the man who will run the Tory's next election campaign, was buoyed by the positive reaction to the budget.

"I like winning and we're going to win a majority government," he told CTV News.

They are close but still under the mark for a majority.

The Quebec election will certainly play a part in what decision Harper takes next. It could also play a part in where the polls go next.

[Canadian Blue]

The Conservatives have played very intelligently. I think we could see a majority government in the next election if they stay the course.

[jdobbin]

The Conservatives have played very intelligently. I think we could see a majority government in the next election if they stay the course.

The pollster indicates that Quebec could be a dark cloud. We'll know just after the Quebec vote.

[Canadian Blue]

Yeah, I think the Conservatives will eventually make even more inroads into Quebec. However Stephane Dion has to improve his image if he want's to make any headway.

[Michael Bluth]

The pollster indicates that Quebec could be a dark cloud. We'll know just after the Quebec vote.

Interesting one-sided posting of what the pollster said. Allan Gregg also said this.

"Harper knows that the lower the BQ vote is, the larger is the pool of soft federalist vote -- and the larger that gets, the more chance he has of consolidating it."

An even split between the Conservatives and the Liberals in Ontario leaves the Conservatives looking at picking up 10 seats there.

The Conservatives are higher than the Liberals were on election day in 1997. An election that saw the Liberals form a majority Government. Hmmmm....

[blueblood]

39% !!! Oh boy Tory Majority!! The grits are in some serious trouble, all Harper needs to do is go for the throat with the crime legislation.

[jdobbin]

Yeah, I think the Conservatives will eventually make even more inroads into Quebec. However Stephane Dion has to improve his image if he want's to make any headway.

There's no doubt that Dion has to improve his image. He had some successful fundraising in his weeks off and met with local party officials and made a few policy announcements, some that were regarded favourably, especially on taxes.

While the budget gets approved because of BQ support, I think Dion should focus on some of the big ticket spending items and indicate where he would reduce spending and make tax changes if he were in government. He should not get bogged down in Parliament. He basically should be on the campaign trail.

[jdobbin]

39% !!! Oh boy Tory Majority!! The grits are in some serious trouble, all Harper needs to do is go for the throat with the crime legislation.

Which the Liberals already said they would support and fast track.

[blueblood]

39% !!! Oh boy Tory Majority!! The grits are in some serious trouble, all Harper needs to do is go for the throat with the crime legislation.

Which the Liberals already said they would support and fast track.

Nothing tory spin can take care of, ha ha. This is the tory centrepiece, the Libs are going to have to come out with tough leg. themselves. You and I both know the tories are on top as far as justice goes and that the tories can outspin the Libs on this. Mind you the Libs have the shoe on the other foot as far as the environment goes.

[jdobbin]

Nothing tory spin can take care of, ha ha. This is the tory centrepiece, the Libs are going to have to come out with tough leg. themselves. You and I both know the tories are on top as far as justice goes and that the tories can outspin the Libs on this. Mind you the Libs have the shoe on the other foot as far as the environment goes.

There won't be a confidence vote on it. What pretext would he use to call an election when he said he wouldn't call one, especially if the Liberals vote for the legislation.

[blueblood]

Nothing tory spin can take care of, ha ha. This is the tory centrepiece, the Libs are going to have to come out with tough leg. themselves. You and I both know the tories are on top as far as justice goes and that the tories can outspin the Libs on this. Mind you the Libs have the shoe on the other foot as far as the environment goes.

There won't be a confidence vote on it. What pretext would he use to call an election when he said he wouldn't call one, especially if the Liberals vote for the legislation.

There might be one concerning the Kelowna Accord. Harper's pretty crafty, if the stars align for Harper he'll get his election at the hands of the opposition.

[geoffrey]

The Kelowna accord would be a great one to take a fall on.

[jdobbin]

There might be one concerning the Kelowna Accord. Harper's pretty crafty, if the stars align for Harper he'll get his election at the hands of the opposition.

Hmm, Harper going against the First Nations. I wonder how that would play when every province supported it.

[blueblood]

There might be one concerning the Kelowna Accord. Harper's pretty crafty, if the stars align for Harper he'll get his election at the hands of the opposition.

Hmm, Harper going against the First Nations. I wonder how that would play when every province supported it.

In the budget Harper burned a lot of the provinces, he has no problem doing that. There are a great many Canadians who would support it and knowing how well the tories can spin things now, he'd pull it off. It's not like the first nations would vote tory anyway. It would be a lesser of two evils game like the one he's played with western canada concerning quebec. If he went down on the Kelowna accord, the majority of western canada would back him on this.

[jdobbin]

The Kelowna accord would be a great one to take a fall on.

If it is any bill, it will be on the Clean Air Act. It is probably why the Liberals are making it a money bill.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/03/22/...-committee.html

And given the opinion of Canadians in this latest poll on global warming, I think Harper either has to pass the bill or explain why going to the polls to elect a majority with him will be good for the environment.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/03/22/...nment-poll.html

[jdobbin]

In the budget Harper burned a lot of the provinces, he has no problem doing that. There are a great many Canadians who would support it and knowing how well the tories can spin things now, he'd pull it off. It's not like the first nations would vote tory anyway. It would be a lesser of two evils game like the one he's played with western canada concerning quebec. If he went down on the Kelowna accord, the majority of western canada would back him on this.

On that maybe. I think the ongoing attack on the Tories in B.C and Newfoundland as well as Saskatchewan over the budget the next days may be influential in shaping opinion.

Things are still in flux. The Quebec election alone could change the dynamic completely.

[blueblood]

In the budget Harper burned a lot of the provinces, he has no problem doing that. There are a great many Canadians who would support it and knowing how well the tories can spin things now, he'd pull it off. It's not like the first nations would vote tory anyway. It would be a lesser of two evils game like the one he's played with western canada concerning quebec. If he went down on the Kelowna accord, the majority of western canada would back him on this.

On that maybe. I think the ongoing attack on the Tories in B.C and Newfoundland as well as Saskatchewan over the budget the next days may be influential in shaping opinion.

Things are still in flux. The Quebec election alone could change the dynamic completely.

He does need to smooth things over with Danny Williams, this majority if he gets one will be razor thin, he cannot write off whole seats. By pissing off the FN only, his seats are relatively safe. Pissing off Danny Williams is a write off of seats. His seats in Saskatchewan are secure, I can assure you of that. B.C. is another story, he'll have to work there too. Quebec IMO is a wildcard.

[jdobbin]

He does need to smooth things over with Danny Williams, this majority if he gets one will be razor thin, he cannot write off whole seats. By pissing off the FN only, his seats are relatively safe. Pissing off Danny Williams is a write off of seats. His seats in Saskatchewan are secure, I can assure you of that. B.C. is another story, he'll have to work there too. Quebec IMO is a wildcard.

There might not be changes in Saskatchewan although the Liberals gained a seat there last time but B.C. and Newfoundland governments are flipping mad. Hard to win a majority when you lose seats from those places.

[Michael Bluth]

There might not be changes in Saskatchewan although the Liberals gained a seat there last time but B.C. and Newfoundland governments are flipping mad. Hard to win a majority when you lose seats from those places.

And they lost that seat in SK by 73 votes. The defeated Conservative MP will definitely run again.

The government of Newfoundland, i.e. Danny Williams is always flipping mad.

BC government, no not hopping mad. Gordon Campbell didn't say much of all.

Yeah, lose seats from Newfoundland and BC.

Uhhhh no. Danny Williams is always mad. Paul Martin bent over backwards to make him happy and it didn't help him. Why should Harper bother?

With the exception of James Moores, all of the Conservative MPs in BC represent socially conservative, by Canadian standards, ridings.

They are going to stay Conservative.