Canadian Political Polls

normanchateau · November 15, 2006

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/061115/...l_liberals_lead
Liberals pull ahead in latest poll from Decima.

This is rather significant. It's the first poll since December, 2005 in which the Liberals have been ahead of the Conservatives.

And the Liberals now have more than double the support of the Conservatives in Quebec. I always did think it odd that Quebecers would vote for a so-con.

jdobbin · November 16, 2006

This is rather significant. It's the first poll since December, 2005 in which the Liberals have been ahead of the Conservatives.
And the Liberals now have more than double the support of the Conservatives in Quebec. I always did think it odd that Quebecers would vote for a so-con.

Social Conservative, yes. Ever since the quiet revolution. However, Quebec has a history of voting for conservative economic platform. I think that they appealed to a combination of disenchanted federalists and people longing to vote for bleu.

Canadian Blue · November 16, 2006

Everything is still up in the air. According to the margin of error the two parties are basically in a dead heat. However, depending on what unfold over the next few months things could change drastically.

gerryhatrick · November 16, 2006

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/061115/...l_liberals_lead
Liberals pull ahead in latest poll from Decima.

Great news, not unexpected.

The lead will continue to grow after Bob Rae is made leader and Canadians get a good look at him.

geoffrey · November 16, 2006

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/061115/...l_liberals_lead

Liberals pull ahead in latest poll from Decima.

Great news, not unexpected.

The lead will continue to grow after Bob Rae is made leader and Canadians get a good look at him.

They did in Ontario already, and he looked awful nasty. He's an unpopular failed premier, why do you think he is to be elected?

normanchateau · November 16, 2006

He's an unpopular failed premier, why do you think he is to be elected?

The multiparty system in Canada tends to make such events possible. Look at how the unpopular so-con Harper got elected even though well over 60% of Canadians voted for parties to the left of CPC.

Canadian Blue · November 16, 2006

That un-popular so-con is still Canada's favorite party leader to lead the country as PM.

jdobbin · November 17, 2006

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/061116/...nvironment_elxn

I think a few of us here already have hit the nail on the end. If the Tories want to win the next election, they should talk economy and taxes. ON the environment, they do not have the guns to win.

normanchateau · November 17, 2006

That un-popular so-con is still Canada's favorite party leader to lead the country as PM.

Let's hope he calls an election real soon so he can prove that he is still Canada's favourite party leader even though the Liberals have now pulled ahead of the Conservatives.

jdobbin · November 17, 2006

SES Poll says Tories have slender lead, down from last poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/061116/...litics_poll_col

gerryhatrick · November 17, 2006

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/061115/...l_liberals_lead

Liberals pull ahead in latest poll from Decima.

Great news, not unexpected.

The lead will continue to grow after Bob Rae is made leader and Canadians get a good look at him.

They did in Ontario already, and he looked awful nasty. He's an unpopular failed premier, why do you think he is to be elected?

He recently polled well in Ontario, and he's been adressing that issue (kind of a "I did what I had to do at the time" thing).

I don't think that's as huge a deal as some people might hope.

Canadian Blue · November 17, 2006

QUOTE(Canadian Blue @ Nov 16 2006, 10:32 AM)
That un-popular so-con is still Canada's favorite party leader to lead the country as PM.

Let's hope he calls an election real soon so he can prove that he is still Canada's favourite party leader even though the Liberals have now pulled ahead of the Conservatives.

Lets hope that ignorant voters who can't even figure out that their are more than a few nation's in Afghanistan don't know where the polling station is because they never bothered to find out.

normanchateau · November 17, 2006

"...the sponsorship scandal that played such a key role in the last election appears to be declining in importance. While 44 per cent said sponsorship played a role in their last vote, only 32 per cent say it will influence their next vote."

http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/News/National/...391118-sun.html

The decline of the importance of the sponsorship scandal revealed in this poll released today is more bad news for the Conservatives. This time they will actually have to run on their record. I expect so-con Harper and the government will fall not long after they deliver the February budget, filled no doubt with desperate handouts to the taxpayers of their own money.

jdobbin · December 13, 2006

Liberals way up Quebec in Decima's latest poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/poll_libs

"The big question coming out of the Liberal convention was would Stephane Dion work as an idea for the Liberals in the province of Quebec," said Bruce Anderson, Decima's CEO. "So far, I think the evidence is more yes than no. He's been established as a leader in the minds of Quebecers and the Liberal party has a 15-point lead over the Conservatives in that province."

jdobbin · December 14, 2006

Liberals way up Quebec in Decima's latest poll.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/poll_libs

The other thing about this poll:

From Decima's CEO:

"I guess the question for the NDP is, if Stephane Dion is positioned as a centre-left, environmentally-preoccupied, social-justice-motivated leader, does that further put pressure on the NDP voter pool?

"So far, I think, the evidence is yes it does. The NDP numbers are soft."

madmax · December 14, 2006

Liberals way up Quebec in Decima's latest poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/poll_libs

The other thing about this poll:

From Decima's CEO:

"I guess the question for the NDP is, if Stephane Dion is positioned as a centre-left, environmentally-preoccupied, social-justice-motivated leader, does that further put pressure on the NDP voter pool?

"So far, I think, the evidence is yes it does. The NDP numbers are soft."

Oh look, the Liberals had a convention, and discovered issues such as social justice, the environment and the existance of the left.

I don't believe that Social Justice, The Environment, and the existance of left wing voters didn't exist in the 1990s through to the last election.

So whats new, the Liberals are going to campaign from the left again?

Quelle Surprise.

jdobbin · December 14, 2006

Oh look, the Liberals had a convention, and discovered issues such as social justice, the environment and the existance of the left.
I don't believe that Social Justice, The Environment, and the existance of left wing voters didn't exist in the 1990s through to the last election.

So whats new, the Liberals are going to campaign from the left again?

Quelle Surprise.

If the NDP weren't so incompetent and so intent on not governing, perhaps the Liberals would feel more pressure from the left.

madmax · December 14, 2006

Quelle Surprise.

If the NDP weren't so incompetent and so intent on not governing, perhaps the Liberals would feel more pressure from the left.

Is it that important that the Liberals feel pressure from the Left?

normanchateau · December 14, 2006

Liberals way up Quebec in Decima's latest poll.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/poll_libs

The Liberals are now 15 points ahead of the Cons in Quebec. Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that Harper was being hailed as a genius for declaring the Quebecois a nation? In the process, Harper pissed of the the rest of Canada and the anglophones of Quebec and has nothing to show in francophone Quebec for his act of "genius".

jdobbin · December 14, 2006

Is it that important that the Liberals feel pressure from the Left?

It has worked for Canada in the past. It just seems that the NDP is not interested in governing at the federal level. They like being in opposition.

jdobbin · December 16, 2006

Latest Ipsos Poll. Dead heat between Liberals and Tories with Liberals in the lead.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/061216/...da_politics_col

Ricki Bobbi · December 16, 2006

Latest Ipsos Poll. Dead heat between Liberals and Tories with Liberals in the lead.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/061216/...da_politics_col

Interesting poll. The part about an election in Quebec early next year makes you wonder if any party, especially the Bloc will force an election before that. There are only so many volunteers out there. Also, the Bloc and Liberals could both want to wait for the results of that election. A PQ vote theoretically is better for both of them than the current status quo.

Proud Canuck · December 20, 2006

Harper can't afford to lose a seat in Alberta. All 28 Alberta seats (should be more at next redistribution with this 10% population growth) give them the ability to say the Liberals really are no longer a national party (which is completely true).

Redistribution gives more seats to Ontario too.

Liberals weren't a coast to coast party back when Trudeau was around.

Redistribution of seats in Ontario could cause more political fragmentation between Northern Ontario and Southern Ontario. In the 1980s there was an attempt to separate the north from the south. There has always been a certain amount of political friction between the two.

The Liberals have always relied on their Quebec power base (and certain ridings in Ontario) to keep them in power. The Conservates appear to have Alberta, Parts of Ontario, New Brunswick and parts of Quebec to build a power base.

Ricki Bobbi · December 20, 2006

\The Liberals have always relied on their Quebec power base (and certain ridings in Ontario) to keep them in power. The Conservates appear to have Alberta, Parts of Ontario, New Brunswick and parts of Quebec to build a power base.

You'd probably want to add the interior of BC and significant parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan to that power base of the Conservatives.

mikedavid00 · December 20, 2006

\The Liberals have always relied on their Quebec power base (and certain ridings in Ontario) to keep them in power. The Conservates appear to have Alberta, Parts of Ontario, New Brunswick and parts of Quebec to build a power base.

You'd probably want to add the interior of BC and significant parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan to that power base of the Conservatives.

I agree. And some of those ridings were pretty close. I was looking at BC also. To be honest, it almost seems that 20% of all Liberal seats can swing to Conservative. Some have no chance though. Some races were extrememly close within a couple of thousand. I would consider those new victories for the CPC. I dount they'll actually lose seats.

The Libs will definatly lose some to CPC for sure. But I do think they may gain some Bloc and NDP to even out their loss.

It will be so close to to Harper getting a majority.. i just can't say for sure.