Iran: Regime Change? Possible?

[SpankyMcFarland]

To get back on topic, regime change in Iran is possible, inevitable eventually. The question is when and what form it will take. The country has had thousands of years of almost uninterrupted autocratic rule and I’m sure that must create a certain inertia in the system on top of the siege mentality Iranians must have because of their geography, hemmed in by potential foes on all sides and under threat of air strikes and assassinations at any time. The ideal transformation would be to secular social democracy but a military dictatorship à la Saddam’s Iraq would probably be more likely. As China’s influence rises in the region, the mullahs will be sorely tempted to throw their lot in with Beijing to acquire advanced Chinese technology and protect themselves against Israel and the US. That would put the likelihood of Western-style democracy way back.

 

Edited July 13, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[User]

5 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

OK, show me with references to reputable historical accounts. 
 

Why do you think that monk burned himself? And do you think he was just one person who felt that way. 

References.... for what? I swear, now you are just playing Sea Lion. 

You don't believe NVA regular forces were fighting in South Vietnam?

Here, go read some history:
https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/Publications/U.S. Marines in Vietnam Fighting the North Vietnamese 1967 PCN 19000309000_1.pdf

5 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I’ll answer the question for you. Such concentration of roles in one person is asking for trouble. It’s often seen in autocracies. 

Concentration of what roles?

This is your argument. You make it.