New Poll shows conservatives far ahead but compares carney to freeland, and shows very clearly ndp is bleeding support to Carney

CdnFox · February 15

Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 19 as Liberal vote share rises at the expense of the NDP - Abacus Data

I mentioned this the other day that the polling seem to indicate that if anything the liberals were pulling from the NDP. Abacus is just on a rather large survey of about 3,000 people and included the results for various liberal leadership potentials.

As you can see, the conservatives didn't change much regardless of who was leader, but the liberal fortunes changed quite a bit depending on whether or not it was Carney. And when it was Carney their chances went up but the NDP support went down.

If these numbers held true the liberals would still lose the election badly but the NDP would be all but wiped out. And that would probably give the liberals a bunch of seats that they would not have gotten if the NDP was still splitting the vote in some ridings.

Which is going to make jagmeets challenges pretty significant. Will he want to delay the election? The NDP really can't survive those kind of numbers. If it does go to an election he has got to somehow present himself as a better choice than the libs to stop the CPC and that's going to be hard to sell, especially seeing as they've dropped the carbon tax themselves

Carney also steals from the bloc a little, which is surprising.