Tories well ahead of BQ in Quebec City riding

[August1991]

Selon un sondage TVA/Journal de Québec/Léger Marketing, Josée Verner, la candidate conservatrice, devance son adversaire du Bloc québécois de 19 points.

Si les élections avaient lieu aujourd'hui, elle recueillerait 42% des voix contre 23% pour Bernard Cleary du Bloc québécois.

Canoe

This will make headlines on TV in Quebec tonight, and in newspapers tomorrow.

The riding of Louis-Saint-Laurent is basically a rural-suburb of Quebec City. I think it includes a military base and a very small anglophone community but it is essentially (close to 97%) francophone.

According to the poll, Verner has the support of 42% of voters and the BQ candidate, 23%.

----

Lise Payette referred to Quebec's support for Harper as similar to the beau risque - after the 1980 referendum defeat, Levesque referred to the chance of renewed federalism. IMV, Quebecers are willing to take one last chance.

These are Quebecers who live largely outside of Montreal. I think that they feel more comfortable with the "conservative" values of Harper, given all the changes and scandals recently. Because of Mulroney, voting Conservative (bleu) is not something completely foreign. The choice of Andre Boisclair has upset some people. In a sense, Quebec is dividing like English-Canada and the US - rural/suburban vs. urban.

In Montreal, the Tory support is coming from more from Anglos and Allophones.

So much can change in a few days and counting chickens now is premature. Harper though really may have a chance to do something different in Canada.

[geoffrey]

Selon un sondage TVA/Journal de Québec/Léger Marketing, Josée Verner, la candidate conservatrice, devance son adversaire du Bloc québécois de 19 points.

Si les élections avaient lieu aujourd'hui, elle recueillerait 42% des voix contre 23% pour Bernard Cleary du Bloc québécois.

Canoe

This will make headlines on TV in Quebec tonight, and in newspapers tomorrow.

The riding of Louis-Saint-Laurent is basically a rural-suburb of Quebec City. I think it includes a military base and a very small anglophone community but it is essentially (close to 97%) francophone.

According to the poll, Verner has the support of 42% of voters and the BQ candidate, 23%.

----

Lise Payette referred to Quebec's support for Harper as similar to the beau risque - after the 1980 referendum defeat, Levesque referred to the chance of renewed federalism. IMV, Quebecers are willing to take one last chance.

These are Quebecers who live largely outside of Montreal. I think that they feel more comfortable with the "conservative" values of Harper, given all the changes and scandals recently. Because of Mulroney, voting Conservative (bleu) is not something completely foreign. The choice of Andre Boisclair has upset some people. In a sense, Quebec is dividing like English-Canada and the US - rural/suburban vs. urban.

In Montreal, the Tory support is coming from more from Anglos and Allophones.

So much can change in a few days and counting chickens now is premature. Harper though really may have a chance to do something different in Canada.

Beauce is another Quebec Francophone riding projected to go Conservative.

[August1991]

Beauce is another Quebec Francophone riding projected to go Conservative.

The Beauce is old creditiste territory, and has often voted idiosyncratically.

Louis-Saint-Laurent is different, and the size of Verneer's lead is striking. (No mention of the sample size though.) I think Leger will announce more regional polls tomorrow.

Before flying to India, Charest apparently left instructions that the provincial Liberals should help whichever candidate (Tory or federal Liberal) was best placed to defeat the BQ. Verneer may be benefitting from provincial Liberal organizational support. The Tories have money too.

In addition, Harper's argument to put people at the cabinet table carries weight.

[in the last week of the 1984 campaign, there were radio jingles in Quebec for Briaaan Mulroooney every 20 minutes.]

Here's a very smart quote (IMV) from a recent Chantal Hébert column:

The upswing in Conservative fortunes in Quebec is only a mystery to those who keep missing the point that the strongest political idea on the Quebec market has never been sovereignty but rather the long-held dream of a federalism more accommodating of the province's aspirations.

Keep in mind though, that Hébert, as recently as December 19 wrote this:

With the exception of francophone Quebec whose voters are unlikely to reconsider their options on their way to supporting the Bloc Québécois, everything else is still at play.

[geoffrey]

It also shows that Same-sex marriage isn't as big of an issue to Quebecois as the media and LPC said it was. Apparently fiscal imbalance and control is more important.