As 10 Grit MPs decide not to run again, more expected to bow out ahead of likely ‘most difficult election for Liberals since before 2015’

CdnFox · January 8

https://www.hilltimes.com/story/2024/01/08/in-the-most-difficult-election-for-the-liberals-since-2015-10-grit-mps-so-far-have-decided-not-to-seek-re-election/407278/

So far, 14 incumbent MPs have decided not to re-offer. The number will probably rise in the coming months as an election nears. 'This will be the most difficult election for a Liberal and any Liberal federally since before 2015, and it's a combination of factors,' says pollster Nik Nanos.

The 2015 election elected 142 rookie MPs. Those who have remained in their position since then have now served for eight years in the House, and are now eligible for their MP’s pension. A significant portion of those MPs could choose not to re-offer.

For the Liberals, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) government is in a downward slide in public opinion, and it could discourage incumbent MPs in marginal ridings from seeking re-election. For months, the Liberals have been trailing the Conservatives with a double-digit margin. According to seat projections by different polling firms, if an election were to happen now, the Conservatives could win a whopping 200 of the 338 ridings.

“I would expect that in the second half of 2024—or, at the soonest, after the next budget—that we will probably have a better chance [to know] which Members of Parliament have decided to stay, and which might be deciding to retire,” said Nanos.

CdnFox · January 8

And the rats flee the sinking ship.

So basically at this point it's about dragging things on till everyone's got their pensions.

In any case, losing the incumbents in battleground ridings will only improve the CPC's chances at a majority. We'll see how many decide to go that route.