CPC 37 Lib 29 NDP 15 - BQ 52

[August1991]

Conservatives: 37 per cent (+8)

Liberals 29 per cent (-7)

NDP: 15 per cent (-2)

Bloc Quebecois: 13 per cent (unchanged)

Greens: 6 per cent (+1)

....

There has been a rise in the number of Canadians who think the values of the Conservative Party match their own (percentage point change from a pre-election, Nov. 24-27 poll in brackets):

Conservatives: 29 per cent (+5)

Liberals: 23 per cent (-4)

NDP: 17 per cent (-1)

Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-2)

Greens: 5 per cent (+1)

CTV

Two things I notice:

1) The NDP is not doing well. The Liberals are not bleeding support to the NDP so these are not people who will cower back to the Liberal fold if polls show a Tory lead. Rather, these are ex-Liberal voters who have decided to vote Tory.

2) The Tories are now at 19% in Quebec (compared to 21% for the Libs). I don't think this will give the Tories any Quebec seats but it will help them in Ontario by making them appear to be "national". (Keep in mind too that the Tory rise in Quebec boosts their cross-Canada numbers.)