seat-by-seat election projections

[shoop]

Two seats are going to go empty???

Here's my projection.

Tories 306.

Liberals 0.

Thank you, and good night.

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[apollo19]

As for the BC results. I point to the poll I posted that you ignored, the history of the Liberals losing support in BC over elections and the fact that they have never done as well as you are hoping they will in BC. Alas, Norman will cross a line soon enough...

CPC currently holds 22 seats. Most projections have them losing half of them based on the fact that they're now polling 30% or lower. Your projections must be based on something other than polling data. Could it beishful thinking?

I don't know about the Liberals losing seats in BC, as people in the GVRD are experiencing record-low unemployment, record building starts, the fastest economic growth in Canada, and finally money being spent there by the Feds. For certain, the CPC won't lose seats in the Valley and the Interior, but I suspect there will be some changing of seats on the mid-island and the Surrey area. Harper doesn't really resound there as a person who cares about BC (because of the BC against the East attitude), and that Harper is trying to cater to Ontario (which he effectively is).

[Toro]

Two seats are going to go empty??? 

Here's my projection.

Tories 306.

Liberals 0.

Thank you, and good night.

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No one shows up to vote.

[shoop]

To clarify, I never said the Liberals would lose seats in BC. What I said, although maybe not clearly enough, is that the Liberals have a history of starting strong and losing support throughout campaigns in BC. That is why I am questioning the possibility of 'historic' Liberal breakthroughs there.

Even the CBC painted BC as a battleground between the NDs and the CPC on Newsworld tonight.

I don't know about the Liberals losing seats in BC,

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[tml12]

To clarify, I never said the Liberals would lose seats in BC. What I said, although maybe not clearly enough, is that the Liberals have a history of starting strong and losing support throughout campaigns in BC. That is why I am questioning the possibility of 'historic' Liberal breakthroughs there.

Even the CBC painted BC as a battleground between the NDs and the CPC on Newsworld tonight.

I don't know about the Liberals losing seats in BC,

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I would be very surprised if the Liberals didn't make any gains in BC. My friend works for the LPC and tonight we were in the Liberal Quebec war room. Martin was giving a speech in Laval (which we attended) and guess what? The speech was full of Quebec talk (obviously) but in the war room it's all about BC.

[shoop]

I can see them making some gains, but if they end up with more than 15 seats in BC I will be shocked. And that definitely wouldn't be an *historic* breakthrough in BC.

Here's a little hint about campaign offices. They are *always* overly-optimistic regardless of party, region or election. Kinda the nature of the beast.

I would be very surprised if the Liberals didn't make any gains in BC.  My friend works for the LPC and tonight we were in the Liberal Quebec war room.  Martin was giving a speech in Laval (which we attended) and guess what?  The speech was full of Quebec talk (obviously) but in the war room it's all about BC.

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[tml12]

I can see them making some gains, but if they end up with more than 15 seats in BC I will be shocked. And that definitely wouldn't be an *historic* breakthrough in BC.

Here's a little hint about campaign offices. They are *always* overly-optimistic regardless of party, region or election. Kinda the nature of the beast.

I would be very surprised if the Liberals didn't make any gains in BC.  My friend works for the LPC and tonight we were in the Liberal Quebec war room.  Martin was giving a speech in Laval (which we attended) and guess what?  The speech was full of Quebec talk (obviously) but in the war room it's all about BC.

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Well I cannot disagree with anything you wrote. Certainly if the office is not optimistic there will be no motivation for workers. More than 15 seats would be outrageous...but someone was saying here they'd only get 3-4 seats, which is similarly outrageous. One thing a lot of Liberals aren't saying is that they are really afraid people are not motivated to vote. Martin didn't look bad tonight, but the establishment is very nervous...Harper's solid bases seem assured, this is not true for the Liberals.

[shoop]

I talked about the historic breakthrough line because the Liberals have been talking about gains in BC making up for projected losses in Québéc and Ontario. I just don't see where they are going to make those gains in BC.

What was the vibe in the war room about Ontario?

Well I cannot disagree with anything you wrote.  Certainly if the office is not optimistic there will be no motivation for workers.  More than 15 seats would be outrageous...but someone was saying here they'd only get 3-4 seats, which is similarly outrageous.  One thing a lot of Liberals aren't saying is that they are really afraid people are not motivated to vote.  Martin didn't look bad tonight, but the establishment is very nervous...Harper's solid bases seem assured, this is not true for the Liberals.

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[tml12]

I talked about the historic breakthrough line because the Liberals have been talking about gains in BC making up for projected losses in Québéc and Ontario. I just don't see where they are going to make those gains in BC.

What was the vibe in the war room about Ontario?

Well I cannot disagree with anything you wrote.  Certainly if the office is not optimistic there will be no motivation for workers.  More than 15 seats would be outrageous...but someone was saying here they'd only get 3-4 seats, which is similarly outrageous.  One thing a lot of Liberals aren't saying is that they are really afraid people are not motivated to vote.  Martin didn't look bad tonight, but the establishment is very nervous...Harper's solid bases seem assured, this is not true for the Liberals.

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I didn't hear much about Ontario, other than the Liberals will use the old "right-wing" stuff about Harper. The Party is looking to maintain their fortunes there and minimalize losses, because they are expecting a few.

[shoop]

I suspect scary-scary-scary will be the *secret* ammunition the Liberals toss out as a Hail Mary in the dying days of the campaign. Supposedly they are going to try and run as the party best suited to deal with the Unity issue at the start of the campaign.

I didn't hear much about Ontario, other than the Liberals will use the old "right-wing" stuff about Harper.  The Party is looking to maintain their fortunes there and minimalize losses, because they are expecting a few.

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[August1991]

More than 15 seats would be outrageous...but someone was saying here they'd only get 3-4 seats, which is similarly outrageous.

I predicted that the BC breakdown would be:

BC 36

CPC 24

Lib 3

NDP 9

I think this in part because of the 1988 federal (free trade) election in BC:

PC 12

Lib 1

NDP 19

I think the NDP will do well this election, particularly so in BC. The NDP is an obvious choice for people who don't like Harper, but can't bring themselves to vote Liberal. In BC, voting NDP doesn't have the same stigma as it does in Ontario or other points east.

From what I understand, BC is notoriously hard to call and polls are often inaccurate, exaggerating Liberal strength.