Party Strategies

[August1991]

I think everyone has noted that there will be three phases to the campaign: before Xmas, during Xmas, after Xmas.

I would expect the before Xmas to be mainly organization and policy announcements. There will be a hiatus during Xmas but don't forget that this often the best time to get out a press release. (Remember the cloned Raelians... )

The post Xmas phase will be nasty.

As to strategies, it appears the Liberals will attempt to turn the Quebec campaign into a referendum - Hebert in Le Devoir has sort of argued this but Lapierre has implied the same. The problem is that it won't work. There is no danger of Liberals leaking federalist votes to the Tories or NDP. And Lapierre and Martin have too much baggage to seek any other support. The BQ will get over 55% and over 60 seats.

Elsewhere, the Liberals will apparently run on the economy (lowest unemployment in 30 years, budget surplus, $60 billion in debt repaid) and wrap-in-flag, anti-American nationalism. And of course, the Liberal ace in the hole, neo-con, profoundly dangerous Stephen Harper.

Frankly, I wonder about the economy pitch. The Tories are right to mention that many Canadians have not seen their after-tax income change much while they see constant evidence of huge payouts to various interest groups. As to the anti-American nationalism, Chretien could do that schtick. Martin looks as believeable playing that card as Turner did. Lastly, I think demonizing Harper works with some voters but not all. Those who want to see Harper as a Demon already do.

Harper will talk about clean, honest government and will present the Tory proposed for accountable government. I liked his reference to "ordinary Canadians" in his speech tonight. There is nothing demagogic in speaking about such people. The test will be if the Tories break 30% in two sequential polls.

I think Layton will talk about health care and will mainly attack the Liberals. The NDP could do very well in this election, and get as many as 40 seats or more.

I still think the Liberal support is questionable - and the Liberal vote will not turn out.