Depressing summer for Martin Liberals

[mirror]

Think about it.

Kigour gone.

O'Brien gone.

Cadman gone.

Parrish remaining independent

Revealed that Harper actually told Grewal to not tape the prime minister

The Martin Liberals now cannot even entertain the possibility of a confidence vote in the Fall as they will surely be defeated according to the latest seat count.

And now with this latest poll that came out this week, showing the Harper Conservatives have narrowed the gap, and the Layton New Democrats firm in the low 20s, if an election were called today, the Liberals would probably not even be forming a minority government.

And listen to the words of a Liberal, granted no fan of Martin, but a Liberal nevertheless.

July 29, 2005

Atlantic: a wash. No big change.

West: New Dems stronger in BC again. Tories dominate the prairies. It being zero-sum and all that, Libs can only go down. Let's be nice to them and say only five seats, for the whole West. That's being really nice, believe me.

Ontario: again, let's be nice to the Martin guys. Let's be cautious. The Tories will do a bit better in Eastern and Southern Ontario. As in BC, Layton's recent moves/maturity/moxie have impressed voters, which counts in tight races, of which there are plenty. Let's say the Libs only drop ten seats to BOTH the Tories and the Dippers in all of Ontario. Again, we're being nice.

Hey, wait! Martin down 15, Tories and Dippers up 15? That's big trouble for Martin, ain't it?

Um, yes, Virginia, it is.

And we haven't even discussed where it gets interesting - Quebec. Gomery, y'see, has eviscerated the Libs in Quebec. That's been the case for months. Nothing has improved for them there.

If Martin loses ten seats in la belle distinct society, which he will, easy, it's all over. Down fifteen elsewhere in Canada, down ten in Quebec? That's 25, by my math. That's Harper forming a government by a half-dozen seats. For a little while, anyway.

It ain't just me who believes this, either. You don't think the Let's Make A Deal stuff at the end of the Parliamentary session was happening for laughs, do you? The smart guys in PMO (yes, there are some) were acting desperate because, well, they were. They also knew an election would see them lose seats, not gain 'em. (Which is why governments tend to call elections when they know they will win more, not less.) So they pulled out the stops. Minister Stronach, step right up.

Charles, et al., don't confuse my lack of support for Martin and his gang for happiness. It isn't. I find this all depressing as Hell.

The next election has one certainty, in my books: uncertainty. And then, if Charest drops the ball, a referendum not long afterwards.

That doesn't make me happy. Make any of you happy?

Didn't think so.

[BHS]

Here's a thought: if an election is called in the fall and Liberal numbers don't improve, Martin could find himself ousted from the Liberal leadership as early as next spring. Since the Liberals have been eating their more talented young throughout the Chretien/Martin years, who will take over the mantle after Martin's gone? Are any of the rubber stamp automatons in the nose bleed sections worth looking at, or will it take Brian Tobin returning to federal politics to rejuvenate the party?

[mirror]

Something like that.

I think a lot of Liberals, at least Martin Liberals, think McKenna is the God that is going to lead them to the promoised land.

But they need a francophone from Quebec now to lead them, me thinks.

Canada is starting to skate on thin ice again it seems, with nationalism raising its ugly head once again in Quebec.

[kimmy]

Here's a thought: if an election is called in the fall and Liberal numbers don't improve, Martin could find himself ousted from the Liberal leadership as early as next spring. Since the Liberals have been eating their more talented young throughout the Chretien/Martin years, who will take over the mantle after Martin's gone? Are any of the rubber stamp automatons in the nose bleed sections worth looking at, or will it take Brian Tobin returning to federal politics to rejuvenate the party?

Dear Belinda,

You'll never lead that party either.

Sincerely,

Stephen.

Believe it.

But they need a francophone from Quebec now to lead them, me thinks.

Canada is starting to skate on thin ice again it seems, with nationalism raising its ugly head once again in Quebec.

I find it depressing to think that public opinion polls in Quebec could determine who leads this country, but sadly you might be right.

-kimmy

[mirror]

Well Liberal party history has been that they alternate between a franco & an anglo. At some point I suppose that may change but right now with the possibility of threat of Quebec separation looming over our heads once again, this may not be the right time for the Liberals, in their ruling wisdom, to change. This whole separation thing makes me kind of sad to know that the Liberals have given ammunition to the separatists, and revived the issue. I thought we had put it to bed. The one saving grace, if there is one, is that hopefully most Quebeckers love Canada, and can see that our country is comprised of more than just the Liberal party.

[BHS]

Well Liberal party history has been that they alternate between a franco & an anglo. At some point I suppose that may change but right now with the possibility of threat of Quebec separation looming over our heads once again, this may not be the right time for the Liberals, in their ruling wisdom, to change. This whole separation thing makes me kind of sad to know that the Liberals have given ammunition to the separatists, and revived the issue. I thought we had put it to bed. The one saving grace, if there is one, is that hopefully most Quebeckers love Canada, and can see that our country is comprised of more than just the Liberal party.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As I posted on a different thread, the majority of Quebecers know where the pork barrel is kept. Their politicians have developed great skill in bleeding Ottawa for a greater share of the national budget than they rate. The only reason they'd let that go, would be if they were somehow able to turn their economy from "have not" to "have" status, and that's not happening any time soon. 1995 was a little too close for comfort, and I imagine we won't be seeing it that close again.

[Argus]

Well Liberal party history has been that they alternate between a franco & an anglo.

And who says Paul Martin is an anglo? Do you know anything about his parents? My understanding is that Paul Martin Senior was a Francophone who insisted his son attend French schools - which he did.

[canadian_conservative]

Think about it.

Kigour gone.

O'Brien gone.

Cadman gone.

Parrish remaining independent

Revealed that Harper actually told Grewal to not tape the prime minister

The Martin Liberals now cannot even entertain the possibility of a confidence vote in the Fall as they will surely be defeated according to the latest seat count.

And now with this latest poll that came out this week, showing the Harper Conservatives have narrowed the gap, and the Layton New Democrats firm in the low 20s, if an election were called today, the Liberals would probably not even be forming a minority government.

And listen to the words of a Liberal, granted no fan of Martin, but a Liberal nevertheless.

July 29, 2005

Atlantic: a wash. No big change.

West: New Dems stronger in BC again. Tories dominate the prairies. It being zero-sum and all that, Libs can only go down. Let's be nice to them and say only five seats, for the whole West. That's being really nice, believe me.

Ontario: again, let's be nice to the Martin guys. Let's be cautious. The Tories will do a bit better in Eastern and Southern Ontario. As in BC, Layton's recent moves/maturity/moxie have impressed voters, which counts in tight races, of which there are plenty. Let's say the Libs only drop ten seats to BOTH the Tories and the Dippers in all of Ontario. Again, we're being nice.

Hey, wait! Martin down 15, Tories and Dippers up 15? That's big trouble for Martin, ain't it?

Um, yes, Virginia, it is.

And we haven't even discussed where it gets interesting - Quebec. Gomery, y'see, has eviscerated the Libs in Quebec. That's been the case for months. Nothing has improved for them there.

If Martin loses ten seats in la belle distinct society, which he will, easy, it's all over. Down fifteen elsewhere in Canada, down ten in Quebec? That's 25, by my math. That's Harper forming a government by a half-dozen seats. For a little while, anyway.

It ain't just me who believes this, either. You don't think the Let's Make A Deal stuff at the end of the Parliamentary session was happening for laughs, do you? The smart guys in PMO (yes, there are some) were acting desperate because, well, they were. They also knew an election would see them lose seats, not gain 'em. (Which is why governments tend to call elections when they know they will win more, not less.) So they pulled out the stops. Minister Stronach, step right up.

Charles, et al., don't confuse my lack of support for Martin and his gang for happiness. It isn't. I find this all depressing as Hell.

The next election has one certainty, in my books: uncertainty. And then, if Charest drops the ball, a referendum not long afterwards.

That doesn't make me happy. Make any of you happy?

Didn't think so.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes it's about time maybe will finnaly see an end to Libral rule and a start with the new conservatives which I will surely vote for heck if NDP Jack Layton becomes PM I won't be mad as long as Martin is out and is finished his rain of screwing the country over!

[Redneck Yokel]

Even if the Liberals are defeated in the next election, there is little support to be found for the conservatives among the other political parties. The most likely outcome seems to be a minority conservative government which will surely fall very quickly. That will then be shown as inability to lead by the liberal media and it will only leave the conservatives in a worse position than ever.

[BHS]

Even if the Liberals are defeated in the next election, there is little support to be found for the conservatives among the other political parties. The most likely outcome seems to be a minority conservative government which will surely fall very quickly. That will then be shown as inability to lead by the liberal media and it will only leave the conservatives in a worse position than ever.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's very astute, and I believe you are correct. The Conservatives will be in power long enough for the Liberals to sack Martin and replace him with...who? Then we face another election, featuring a disheartened and discredited Conservative Party, and the Liberals under new management.

That makes Jack Layton the "wise old man" of the three biggest parties. In such a scenario I predict gains for the NDP, which is just horrifying, personally.

[SirSpanky]

Dang you guys are right; who else to put at the liberal helm except......

DUN DUN DUN......Belinda

Frightening.

[BHS]

Dang you guys are right; who else to put at the liberal helm except......

DUN DUN DUN......Belinda

Frightening.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm sure the Libs are grateful to Belinda for her last minute grab for personal glory, but do you really thing the core party faithful will support her in a leadership bid? She does carry the Tory taint with her. I'd be surprised if she makes it any further than her current cabinet post.

But then again, my understanding of the Liberal mind is very limited. And from my perspective, that's a good thing.

[shoop]

Even if the Liberals are defeated in the next election, there is little support to be found for the conservatives among the other political parties. The most likely outcome seems to be a minority conservative government which will surely fall very quickly. That will then be shown as inability to lead by the liberal media and it will only leave the conservatives in a worse position than ever.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why would a CPC government "surely" fall very quickly?

There is a valid case that they would get at least a full year to govern.

When it comes down to it the only reason the Liberals survived the budget vote was Cadman asked his constituents and they just didn't want another election so soon.

Say the next election is held in January 2006 and the CPC does win a minority.

Martin retires right away with a late spring or summer 2006 leadership vote. Earliest possible chance to bring down the CPC minority government is fall, so an October 2006 election.

Are voters really going to be eager for a third election in a 28-month span?

Parliamentary pension is another issue. 2000 election was held at the end of November. There could be a few members elected as rookies in that election who want to make sure they get their six years in to guarantee their pensions. Maybe they don't want to run again, face a tough race for re-election whatever, which means the earliest possible time a CPC minority would fall is January 2007.

Are people really going to want another election in the dead of winter?

That adds up to at least a full year, if not 15 to 18 months, for Harper to prove his worth.

As much as some people despise him, he still does have a solid base of support and there are a lot of people who do like him. If he can build his coalitions wisely in that time and not force any social agenda he might be able to stick around for a while.

[Riverwind]

If [Harper] can build his coalitions wisely in that time and not force any social agenda he might be able to stick around for a while.

If Harper was capable of doing that he would be sitting at 40%+ in the polls and looking a majority gov't. There is no reason to assume he would change his strips just because he gets a minority gov't.

[shoop]

If Harper was capable of doing that he would be sitting at 40%+ in the polls and looking a majority gov't. There is no reason to assume he would change his strips just because he gets a minority gov't.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harper doesn't need to change his strips (or his stripes for that matter). All of the fear-mongering that was used to demonize Harper and the CPC was false. A Conservative minority government would allow people to judge the CPC on their actions, not on what the Liberals scare people with in order to protect their own hides.

The CPC is only 3% behind the Liberals in the polls. No need for panic. Harper needs to roll out specific policy proposals that will: A. Show him to be a potential PM and cut back his image of continually fighting the Liberals and B. Help slowly build a more moderate image.

By keeping his head down and working at things slowly Harper allows Martin to do what he has done best as PM -- shoot himself in the foot. (Poor, poor Mr. Dithers.)

[Canuck E Stan]

Here's a factor I think will play big on the next bunch of polls coming out of Ontario. I think people are starting to get nervous about the so called "great economy" in Canada.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Art...siness/Canadian

"Manufacturers such as furniture and auto-parts makers have slashed 106,000 positions in the past year, stung by a strong Canadian dollar and heated competition from abroad. Ontario, home to much of Canada's manufacturing activity, has lost 52,000 jobs in the past year.

Odds are, the bleeding will continue."

Along with that the federal government recorded a surplus of $3.1 billion in the first two months of this fiscal year(April/May). People may worry about how much the more the Liberals will try to squeeze from Canadians. Paul may be in trouble in Ontario.

[mirror]

You don't seem to get it. It is essential that we have high taxes so that we will have a fair and equitable society and solid social programs like the new child care program which is coming, etc. These are the reasons why Toyota is investing and creating jobs in Canada. As long as Canada keeps high taxes we will be fine.

[Canuck E Stan]

Sorry, I forgot, it's Layton who's running the country now and not Captain Paul. Sorry again.

[shoop]

You don't seem to get it. It is essential that we have high taxes so that we will have a fair and equitable society and solid social programs like the new child care program which is coming, etc. These are the reasons why Toyota is investing and creating jobs in Canada. As long as Canada keeps high taxes we will be fine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is a joke right?

Is is "essential" that Canada has high taxes. "As long as Canada keeps high taxes we will be fine."

Are you advocated an increase in Canadian tax rates?

Tax freedom day for 2005 was on June 26th. So the average Canadian had to work half the year to cover their tax bill.

How is it equitable to ask somebody to work half the year to fund "a fair and equitable society"?

How many people cut back on the amount they work because of the heavy burden of taxation?

[mirror]

You don't seem to get it. It is essential that we have high taxes so that we will have a fair and equitable society and solid social programs like the new child care program which is coming, etc. These are the reasons why Toyota is investing and creating jobs in Canada. As long as Canada keeps high taxes we will be fine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is a joke right?

Is is "essential" that Canada has high taxes. "As long as Canada keeps high taxes we will be fine."

Are you advocated an increase in Canadian tax rates?

Tax freedom day for 2005 was on June 26th. So the average Canadian had to work half the year to cover their tax bill.

How is it equitable to ask somebody to work half the year to fund "a fair and equitable society"?

How many people cut back on the amount they work because of the heavy burden of taxation?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The freedom day by the right wing fraser institute has been totally debunked and discredited. It's all based on garbage figures that they just pulled out of the air with no solid scientific evidence to back up their research.

The US has one of the sickest societies in the world and you want Canadians to follow that degerate society. Are you nuts? Try to do a little thinking for yourself instead of listening to fox news or whatever it is that you watch. Sorry but most Canadians aren't into the ME ME ME lifestyle you advocate.

Canadians need to put into effect the GAI that Chretien proposed but never implemented. But it's coming soon.

[shoop]

The freedom day by the right wing fraser institute has been totally debunked and discredited. It's all based on garbage figures that they just pulled out of the air with no solid scientific evidence to back up their research.

The US has one of the sickest societies in the world and you want Canadians to folow that degerate society. Are you nuts? Try to do a little thinking for yourself instead of listening to fox news or whatever it is that you watch. SXorry but most Canadians aren't into the ME ME ME lifestyle you advocate.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What then do you feel is a fair level of taxation? Do you have one? Or do you just favour 'high' taxes in general?

Uhhh, it is possible to form opinions on one's own without listening to Fox News.

No, I don't think I am nuts. I do think that blanket support of "high taxes" is pretty weak.

I would think it fair to say most Canadians wouldn't support the statement:

"It is essential that we have high taxes ."

But thanks for the blanket personal attacks without any justification.

How long until this 'forthcoming' National Childcare Program is enacted? Ken Dryden, Hall of Fame goalie, pretty weak as a minister so far.

[Canuck E Stan]

Hey Shoop, money isn't important to Mirror, he wants Canada to be like Finland and have the country take care of him from craddle to grave.

[Guest eureka]

Canada does not have high taxes and the Fraser Institute has perpetuated a fraud with its "Tax Freedom Day" for a long time. The tax take for Canada amounts to approx 36% of National Income which, when Healthcare is factored in, represents a lower tax rate than the US. Of course, the higher tax rate in the US, about 30% is somewhat accountable to its military spending.

The lowest 50% of Canadians actually pay less taxes than the lowest 50% of Americans. The lower effctive rate of taxation in Canada with the higher level of services is due to greater efficiency in government; less waste; and far less corruption of the sort that sees the American Senate with every appropriations Bill passing many billions of dollars to friends and supporters of the individual Senators.

Appropriations Bills in the US Senate have these many billions tacked on by each of the Senators for pet projects aimed at keeping electoral support and for actual "pork" to family and friends. The Bills cannot be vetted since they are many hundreds of pages long and the time for discusison and passage is measured in hours.

That cannot happen in Canada.

[shoop]

Stan,

Sorry. I forgot that if you don't favour high taxes you have to be nuts and must get all your information from Fox News.

Ignoramus Mirror could have used a "Canadian" right-wing media jab if he put in some effort himself. Perhaps some sort of government agency could be created to help him on that front...

Eureka, what is an alternative means of comparison for comparing tax burdens across countries?

[BHS]

Yeah, you'd never see the Liberals hiring friends and family via bidless contracts, or giving multi-million dollar sponsorship contracts for nothing to firms that support the party, or spending money to have fountains built in the middle of rivers in their ridings or...

Oh yeah, they really do all of those things. I guess you DO see that sort of thing in Canada, even with an unelected senate.