NDP has reason to cheer today's poll results

[bigdude]

Article

New Democrats have reason to cheer today's poll results, with Graves saying: "Not since the salad days of the 1980s have the NDP been poised to exert such influence on the Canadian political scene."

The NDP tops all other parties as the second choice, with 24 per cent of respondents saying they would move their vote to Layton's party.

Libs: 32.5%

Cons: 30.5%

NDP: 19%

And the New Democrats are within 7% of the Liberals in Quebec.

Not too shabby!

[Newfie Canadian]

Well, it looks like the NDP will be the deciding factor in the next government, if the current polls hold. Neither the CPC nor the Liberals will form any type of coalition with the Bloc, and they won't form a coalition with each other. That leaves the NDP.

In my opinion, again if the current polls hold, the next government will be a Liberal/NDP one. I can't see the NDP and the CPC getting together.

[bigdude]

Deal with Left Helps Canada's Liberals in New Poll

"The political alliance between federal Liberals and New Democrats is helping push Prime Minister Paul Martin's government onto the comeback trail," said the Toronto Star, which published the opinion poll by Ekos Research Associates.

"Overall, it seems that most of the dramatic trends witnessed at the beginning of this month have now reversed."

The Toronto Star said the Ekos survey of 1,212 Canadian voters was the first poll since Martin sealed a deal with the NDP that will delay planned corporate tax cuts and boost government spending in return for NDP support for the federal budget.

If the budget is defeated, or if other opposition parties win a vote of no confidence in the government, the government will fall and there will be a new federal election, possibly as early as June.

But the poll shows no party has enough support to guarantee them a majority in Parliament if an election were held now. Pollsters usually say that a party needs some 40 percent public support to get a majority government.

Agreed as it seems that Canadians had better get used to minority governments.

[kimmy]

And the New Democrats are within 7% of the Liberals in Quebec.

Not too shabby!

The Conservatives are also within 7% of the Liberals in Quebec.

If you put heartburn, hangovers, stale beer, or flat cola on the poll, they would also be within 7% of the Liberals in Quebec. The Ebola Virus might poll within 7% of the Liberals in Quebec.

To consider being within 7% of the Liberals in Quebec as some kind of accomplishment is, I would think, a rather dubious conclusion. I once saw a Mad Magazine (!) feature on deciphering polls, advertising, and spin. One of the techniques they demonstrated went much along the same line:

An advertisement enthusiastically declares, "Audiences at Cutthroat Island have doubled since week one!"

Accompanying illustrations demonstrate the problem with that seemingly positive statement... The "week one" drawing shows one lonely customer sitting in an otherwise empty theatre. The "week two" drawing shows two lonely customers sitting in an otherwise empty theatre.

While some may doubt the educational value of Mad Magazine, I find that particular cartoon comes to mind often now that I'm an adult trying to think critically about politics; it certainly made a more lasting impression on me than anything I learned in Social Studies class. Just as I often find The Daily Show to be a more insightful look at world events than what I see on "real" news programs. hmm. Perhaps that's a problem...

-kimmy e newman.

{what. me worry?}

[err]

Kimmie,

One of the only reasons that the "Conservatives" are as high as they are in the polls is because ignorant people associate Harper's rednecks with the old "Progressive Conservative" party. And there are a lot of ignorant people out there who think things like "My daddy voted for the Conservatives, and my grand-daddy voted for them too, and I'm darn well going to vote for them too", without any concept of what they stand for... other than "Less taxes"

The new Conservative/Reform/Alliance party, that chose to call themselves "Conservative" chose the name for just that reason.

However, thinking people don't usually do things this way. They're scared of the Conservative/Reform/Alliance party for very good reason.

PS. Todays polls show the Conservative/Reform/Alliance party has lost their lead... Harper's going to have to call the vote for non-confidence (because he promised he would try) and then tell some members to stay at home, because they know that they will lose an election if one is held this spring... funny, heh ???

[Argus]

One of the only reasons that the "Conservatives" are as high as they are in the polls is because ignorant people associate Harper's rednecks with the old "Progressive Conservative" party.  And there are a lot of ignorant people out there who think things like "My daddy voted for the Conservatives, and my grand-daddy voted for them too, and I'm darn well going to vote for them too", without any concept of what they stand for... other than "Less taxes"

The new Conservative/Reform/Alliance party, that chose to call themselves "Conservative" chose the name for just that reason.

However, thinking people don't usually do things this way.  They're scared of the Conservative/Reform/Alliance party for very good reason.

"Thinking" people don't get scared of and despise political parties whose political platform is, on the world scale, a hair to the right of the one they already support. "Thinking" people don't get scared of a political party just because, if all the accusations against it are true, it might refuse to allow homosexuals to marry, put in place some kind of regulations on abortions, and introduce a small measure of privately operated health care into the country. All of which could be fairly easily reversed by the next government which comes along.

"Thinking" people don't allow themselves to be herded like ignorant sheep by a simplistic fearmongering campaign which any thinking person could see was so much whale shit.

PS.  Todays polls show the Conservative/Reform/Alliance party has lost their lead...

Shrug. And tomorrow's will show them out front. Need I remind you they have been far behind for years, including the start of the last election, and that they finished well back of the Liberals last election but won 99 seats and barely missed a few dozen more in Ontario by narrow margins?

And that was with the great hope about Martin, which for the most part has dissipated (Mr. Dithers, indeed), little stink about the Sponsorship scandal, and Martin dodging any comment about gay marriage and his alleged support for it.

Make no mistake about the gay marriage thing. Most of those who really support it would NEVER vote tory anyway. Most people who say they support it, though, aren't terribly excited by it, and it won't really affect how they vote.

But it will invigorate the conservative vote and get them running out to the polls. Those who oppose gay marriage tend to oppose it very strongly. Also, while Martin avoided all discussion of gay marriage last time he can't do that now that it's official Liberal policy. That's not going to play well in all those ethnic ridings in BC and Toronto. Devout Hindus, Jews, Sikhs and Muslims are going to find it hard to go out to cast their vote in support of gay marriage.

[RonnieWood]

Now that people are starting to realize a vote for the NDP is not a wasted vote, I think the NDP will win somewhere between 10 and 20 seats in the next election.

Keeping in mind what Kimmy said about Mad Magazine here's some tidbits about the NDP:

15.7% of the voting population marked an X next to an NDP candidate in 2004, that amounts to 2,100,000 votes for Jack and the by's

The NDP received one seat for every 110,000 votes cast

by contrast the Liberals got one seat for every 37,000 votes, the Conservatives received one seat for every 40,000 votes and the Bloc won a seat for every 31,000 votes they received

There were a lot of close races for the NDP in 2004

The closest 12 races came down to less then 6,500 votes combined!

An average of about 550 votes per riding...

Here's something the NDP said in a letter sent out in January:

"..if just 3,200 people in strategically placed ridings across the country had chosen the NDP instead of another party, we would have 31 seats instead of 19."

So I think it's safe to say the NDP had a fairly successful election in 04. (the party's second highest vote count only second to Ed Broadbent's 88' campaign)

Also I think it's safe to say that the increase in support that the NDP is seeing will make the next election even more successful for the party

Interesting and exciting times ahead that's for sure