Which party has loyal voters?

[August1991]

I have a suspicion that Tory and NDP voters are loyal and will bother to vote. Liberal voters may let other things get in the way on voting day and not bother going to the polling station. (Quebec and the BQ are different stories.)

This means that the Lib vote will be a few percentage points lower than polls suggest. IMV, this means a tie in the polls is the same as a Tory win.

By the same logic, the Green result on election day may well be higher than polls suggest.

Another way to view this is to say that accurate polling is becoming increasingly difficult. Too many people don't answer the phone and of those who do, too many don't actually vote.

In the past, these errors were smaller and randomly spread across parties. This is increasingly not the case. So, which way does the bias go?

[twister]

I agree with you August, the Tories and NDP will do much better than polls suggest. The reason for this - the two parties are much better at getting the vote out. This election should be interesting because many Liberal voters that I know say that they support the party but aren't going to vote. IMO this election won't be as close as some suggest - why? Two reasons:

The Conservatives have, under their previous banners always polled lower before the election ie. the Alliance consistently polled in the upper teens/low twenties in 2000 but actually took almost 26% of the vote.

Second, I think many people who are upset with the Liberals but refuse to support either the CPC or NDP will simply not vote.

Monday night should be interesting for sure, but I think the Tories will walk away with 35 to 37% of the vote leaving the Liberals behind with 28 to 30%

[Reverend Blair]

I dunno...I've been an off and on member of the NDP for ever. The demographic they most appeal to though...the angry young men (and women) are the most likely to blow off the election though.

The Conservatives...the men (and women) who like their Grey Flannel Suits...are more likely to show up. They may not be imaginative or decent, but they are regular.

The Liberals. Ah, yes...Canada's "natural" ruling party. They've got the best of both worlds. The worst too. Martinites are still putting on their Grey Flannel Suits every morning. The left of the party is still as dependable as the NDP supporters.

The Greens. I don't know what the heck to think about them. A bunch of conservative hippies? Progressive businessmen? Dope-smokin' Republicans? I really don't know, but oxymorons are kind of fun.

I see them as a bunch of Joe Clark-tories. I like and respect Joe and I like and respect the Greens. I even encourage people to consider them, but I'm not voting for them. The people I've met who say they are voting Green are pretty solid though...not a lot of soft support for the Greens, but a lot (percentage-wise) of people who will be at the polls.

[idealisttotheend]

I agree that more Cons and NDP will show up just like more Cons and NDP post on boards such as these. The Liberals natural constiteuncy is the silent middle who have no reason to vote in this election save to stave off the Conservatives. Yet the fact that it is so close may bring Liberal voters out for that very reason to stave off the Conservatives. The question for the Liberals will be whether or not they have convinced the electorate that Harper will destabilize the natural order and so get their vote out.

[takeanumber]

Opposite.

There are hardcore Lib supporters.

They'll show up.

(Sadly for you, August, I think the most digusted people won't show up because they don't think that their vote matters.)