Polls not accurate during elections.

[Mr.Canada]

The polls have always been wrong. The Tories have always finished above what the polls predicted since at least 1980. While the Liberals have always, except once, finished below what polls predicted pre writ during the same period.

Liberals have only gained ground in one campaign since 1980 Source

If history is indeed the great teacher then it appears that a Tory majority will happen in the next election.

[M.Dancer]

The polls have always been wrong. The Tories have always finished above what the polls predicted since at least 1980. While the Liberals have always, except once, finished below what polls predicted pre writ during the same period.

If history is indeed the great teacher then it appears that a Tory majority will happen in the next election.

Your title is a bastardization of the article, and does not reflect the premise of the article. The article is not about polls during elections.

Whenever a party is confronted with a yawning gap between themselves and their main rivals in a pre-election poll, it is usually waved off because “campaigns matter.”

[Mr.Canada]

Your title is a bastardization of the article, and does not reflect the premise of the article. The article is not about polls during elections.

My title is accurate. "Polls aren't accurate during elections". Meaning polling taken before the writ is dropped doesn't reflect in the actual numbers when the votes are tallied. The title is fine. If you have a problem with the title , that's something you yourself will need to cope with.

Let's try to stay on topic here in this thread.

Good day.

[M.Dancer]

If history is indeed the great teacher then it appears that a Tory majority will happen in the next election.

If you had read the article, which it seems if you did, you did not understand it...you might have noticed the last paragraph.

But if there is one thing to take from the history of pre-election polling, it is that change does not come easily. In only two of the last nine elections has the lead shifted from one party to another, meaning the next election is Stephen Harper’s to lose.

[Mr.Canada]

If you had read the article, which it seems if you did, you did not understand it...you might have noticed the last paragraph.

Thanks for your reply.

[M.Dancer]

My title is accurate. "Polls aren't accurate during elections". Meaning polling taken before the writ is dropped doesn't reflect in the actual numbers when the votes are tallied. The title is fine. If you have a problem with the title , that's something you yourself will need to cope with.

Let's try to stay on topic here in this thread.

Good day.

It isn't accurate and your english comprehension is failing. That's the problem with kids like you, barely literate and barely able to form a coherent thought.

[Mr.Canada]

It isn't accurate and your english comprehension is failing. That's the problem with kids like you, barely literate and barely able to form a coherent thought.

Thanks for your reply, I appreciate the bump but lets stay on topic.

The media and pollsters are constantly inflating the numbers of the Liberals as the Liberal numbers pre election are always much higher then the actual numbers post election. The reverse being true for the Tories.

Either it's a media/pollster bias or the Tories are just better at running election campaigns then the Liberals are.

Edited March 3, 2011 by Mr.Canada

[guyser]

Thanks for your reply

Twice now.....must be code word for "I'm wrong and can't refute but will be obstinate anyway"

No reply needed...thanks.

[Mr.Canada]

Their indeed seems to be a huge fluctuation between the pre writ polls and vote count. Which is the reason for this thread. To discuss whether or not the media and pollsters are biased...OR...if the Tories just run better campaigns then the Liberals. Could be a combination of both mind you as well.

[Topaz]

I'm waiting for the election debates and this time Harper will have his work cut out for them. All three of the opposition parties are good debaters. The last election, I made a bet that the Tories would not get their majority and won. I still say they won't and not just wondering if they keep the number they have.

[Mr.Canada]

I'm waiting for the election debates and this time Harper will have his work cut out for them. All three of the opposition parties are good debaters. The last election, I made a bet that the Tories would not get their majority and won. I still say they won't and not just wondering if they keep the number they have.

Last election I knew they wouldn't get a majority as well. This time the climate is much different then it was last time around. PM Harper hasn't done anything to really alarm people. I don't think that those fence sitting voters are going to believe the fear mongering from the left this time out.

Plus the numbers are much more steadily staying around majority territory then they were last time as well.

You may well be right Topaz but I'll still sayt hey'll end up with a majority. The Tories are well ahead in Ontario tis time will be the difference. The Tories are at about 44% vs about 32% for the Liberals in Ontario. Which means the Liberals have Toronto and not much else. I even think the Liberals will lose seats in the 905 and outer 416 to the Tories.

Toronto has a conservative Mayor now and this could play a big part in the election.

[scouterjim]

The polls have always been wrong. The Tories have always finished above what the polls predicted since at least 1980. While the Liberals have always, except once, finished below what polls predicted pre writ during the same period.

If history is indeed the great teacher then it appears that a Tory majority will happen in the next election.

I never believe polls. Poills are nototiously wrong. In the US, polls said Dubya would never win a second term, but he did. Polls in Canada said Trudeau was the most popular PM, but those polls were taken in Ontario only (which apparently meant the whole country felt that way). It is easy to say a politician is high in the polls if the only people polled are party members.